Transcript Traditional Interest Rate Channels

The Channels of Monetary
Transmission: Lessons for
Monetary Policy
Frederic S. Mishkin
Transmission mechanisms can be classified as:


Asset Price Channels
a) Interest rate channel
b) Exchange rate channel
c) Equity prices channel
Credit Channels
a) Bank lending channel
b) Balance sheet channel
Interest Rate Channels
Follow the traditional ISLM model
M ↑, ir ↓, I ↑, Y ↑
M ↑, Pe↑, pe↑, ir ↓, I ↑, Y ↑
Where
M= money supply
ir= real interest rate
Pe= expected price level
pe= expected inflation
I= investment
Y= real output
Exchange Rate Channel

Derived from macroeconomic models built under a
Keynesian framework
M ↑, ir ↓, E ↓, NX ↑, Y↑
Where
M = money supply
ir= real interest rate
E = nominal exchange rate
NX = net exports
Y = real output
Equity Price Channels
a)
Tobin’s q Theory: monetary policy affects the real sector through its
effect on the valuation of equities.
M ↑, Pe ↑, q ↑, I ↑, Y ↑
Where
M=money supply
Pe= equity prices
q = market value of firms/replacement cost of capital
I = investment
Y = real output
b) Wealth effects on consumption: assumes that
consumption is a function of lifetime resources, which
include stocks.
M ↑, Pe ↑, W ↑, C ↑, Y ↑
Where
M= money supply
Pe= stock prices
W = wealth
C = consumption
Y = real output

Notice that the concept of equity and
wealth can be applied to housing and
land prices.
An increase in house prices leads to an
increase in Tobin’s q for housing.
An increase in house prices leads to an
increase in wealth.
Credit Channels

Bank Lending Channel
M ↑, bank deposits ↑, bank loans ↑, I ↑, Y ↑
Notice that the effect of monetary policy of firms is
asymmetric. The greater the dependence on bank loans,
the greater the effect of monetary policy on investment.

Balance-Sheet Channels
a) Via the net worth of firms
M ↑, Pe ↑, adverse selection ↓, moral hazard ↓,
net worth ↑, lending ↑,I ↑, Y ↑
b) Via nominal interest rates and cash flow
M ↑, i ↓, cash flow ↑, adverse selection ↓,
moral hazard ↓, lending ↑, I ↑, Y ↑
c) Via the general price level
M ↑, unanticipated P ↑, adverse selection ↓
,moral hazard ↓ lending ↑, I ↑, Y ↑
d) Household Balance-Sheet Effect:
M ↑, Pe ↑, value of financial assets ↑, likelihood
of financial distress ↓, consumer durable and
housing expenditure ↑, Y ↑
Lesson for Monetary Policy
1. Dangerous to associate easing or tightening
with fall or rise in nominal interest rates.
2. Other asset prices besides short-term debt have
information about stance of monetary policy.
3. Monetary policy effective in reviving economy
even if short-term interest rates near zero.
4. Avoiding unanticipated fluctuations in price level
important: rationale for price stability objective.