Transcript Looking Ahead - The New North

The New North:
From Concept
to Reality
How it Got Started
 The Fox Valley WDB –
“What’s happening?”




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Networking Welch & Winters
 The Bay Area WDB joins in
 The project evolves
 The concept of a regional
plan emerges
The Plan is Launched!
 October 2004




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Key players/leaders emerge
 The Governor speaks
The Keys to the New North
 Private sector leadership




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Money
 A plan
 A professional staff
 Buy in
Is the New North plan a
success?
• Basis for forming the New North Economic
Partnership and all that followed
• Outside assessment – “We want a plan like
the New North plan.”
• Stimulated economic development thinking
within the New North region
• Led to other regional plans Centergy, Grow
North, UP/Wisconsin Border Region
Regional Organization
and Thinking
MI
WI
MN
IA
UP/WI
Border
Region
Measuring Up:
What has happened
and where are we?
Key Strategies




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
Leverage the regional brand
Attract, develop and retain
diverse talent
Advance educational attainment
Target growth opportunities
Build entrepreneurial climate
and small businesses
Incorporate sustainability
Key Events Since 2004




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Formation of the New North Inc.
 A strategy to work the plan
 Hiring a first rate executive
director
 The economic summits
 The branding initiative
 Targeted initiatives
Some Leading Edge
Thinking and Action
 The Wind Energy Cluster




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Sustainability and
Green Jobs
 Cellulosic BioFuels Studies and
Plans
Looking Ahead:
The New Normal
Economy
Perspective &
Attitude Adjustment




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 There
T
is and will be bad
economic news for at least six
more months.
 The most successful Wisconsin
industries – paper and dairycame out of economic crisis
 Many Wisconsin industries were
initial failures - paper
The Last 11 Recessions
Duration of U.S. Recessions in Months
Dec 07 - ?
Mar 01 - Nov 01
Jul 90 - Mar 91




Jul 81 - Nov 82
The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
Jan 80 - Jul 80
Nov 73 - Mar 75
Dec 69 - Nov 70
Apr 60 - Feb 61
Aug 57 - Apr 58
Jul 53 - May 54
Nov 48 - Oct 49
0
5
10
Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research
15
20
25
What makes this recession
different from the last five
major recessions?




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
1. 28 years since last major
downturn
2. First recession experience for
1+ generation(s)
3. The multiple sources of
economic trouble & risk
4. The speed and depth of the
economic downturn
5. The first major recession in
the age of the Internet
U.S. Housing Starts




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead






2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1.4 million
1.85 million
1.95 million
2.07 million
1.81 million
.95 million
 2009
.55 million
Housing = 4% GDP
Normal Replace/
Growth 1.3 million
U.S. Auto Sales




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead






2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 (Est.)
17.7 million
16.9 million
17.0 million
16.1 million
13.2 million
9.9 million
Decline: 18% in 2008; 25% in 2009
Autos = 3.5% of GDP
Past declines:
21% in 1974;
19.1% in 1980
The Global
Economy 2008




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
World Population (Market)
6.5 Billion
U.S. Population
0.3 Billion
World Economy (GDP)
$60.6 Trillion
U.S. Economy
$14.4 Trillion
EU Economy
$18.4 Trillion
China’s Economy
$4.3 Trillion
Source: 2006 Estimates IMF and World Bank
Economic Excess/Overhang
 Furloughs and wage freezes
and give backs




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead









Mercury Marine
Milwaukee labor contracts
State furloughs
Unemployment
Housing glut/Housing cycle
Consumer deleveraging
Consumer savings rate> – to +
New financial regulations
Generational reality check
The Budget Deficit:
A Threat to the Dollar




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
So what is the
“New Normal”?
Consumer:




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Savings Rate
 Spending
 Work Life
 Standard of Living




So what is the
“New Normal”?
Business:




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Regulation
 Outsourcing
 Globalization
 Business Cycles




Moving Ahead:
Where do we go
from here?
In the New Normal
economy, where is
the advantage?




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 A back to basics economy
 Huge global markets
 A versatile workforce
A
Alignment with market
opportunities
Key Global
Market Demand




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Energy
 Fiber
 Protein
Some Economic
Opportunities




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Waste transformation &
technology
 Higher education & training
 International direct investment
Why waste
transformation?
• New North is full of waste producers –
meat packing, paper, dairy farms and
processors, etc
• Waste transformation is green
• Academic and private sector research
assets
• Some proven models & pilots e.g.
Encap
• The world’s largest fresh water clean
up project.
Higher Education and
Workforce Training
• Large markets – global markets
• UW, private colleges, proprietary,
and WTCS assets
• Private sector training programs
• Good paying jobs
• Students as “educational tourists”
Foreign Direct
Investment
• The record of foreign direct
investment in the New North
• A different investing perspective and
timeline
• An interest in R&D – Fincantieri,
Kikkoman, Roche
• UW Task Force on International
Investment
Parting Thoughts
 Focus on the plan: Most regions
don’t have a strategic plan




The New North
Measuring Up
Looking Ahead
Moving Ahead
 Think globally: The markets
increasingly are over there
 Position for the next recovery:
It will come and those with a
good plan will prosper
 David J. Ward, Ph.D., CEO
 Phone: (608) 279-3393
 Email: [email protected]
 Fax: (608) 441-8064
 Web: www.northstareconomics.com