Transcript Professor Anthony Clayton

Implications of Climate Change for Sustainable Development
Professor Anthony Clayton
The implications of climate change
for development
Professor Anthony Clayton, University of the West Indies
UWI Faculty of Social Science
June 2007
Report written by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government,
published 30th October 2006
CO² and temperature rise
• Carbon emissions have raised global temperatures by 0.5°C.
• With BAU, there is >75% chance that global temperatures will
rise by 2-3°C over the next 50 years. There is a 50% chance
that global temperatures could rise by 5°C.
Environmental impact
• Melting glaciers will increase flood risk, then drought.
• Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.
• Rising sea levels could displace 200 million people.
• Up to 40% of species could become extinct.
• There will be more frequent extreme weather patterns.
A Stern warning (part 2)
Economic impact
• A rise of 2-3°C could reduce global GDP by 3%.
• A rise of 5°C could cost up to 10% of global GDP. The poorest
countries would lose disproportionately more.
• Worst case scenario; the global economy could shrink by 20%
- permanently.
Cost of remedial action
• Controlling this risk would require stabilizing emissions within
the next 20 years then reducing by 1-3% pa. The transition to
a low-carbon economy would cost 1% of GDP, mostly one-off
expenditure (e.g. investment in low-carbon technologies).
Conclusion:
• A one-off investment of $1 could avert a permanent reduction
in annual income of $5-20.
Changing problems, moving targets..
60
50
Percent
40
OECD
Developing
30
20
10
0
2002
2030
Share of world primary energy demand
Source: IEA
China: now largest consumer of coal, 2nd largest consumer of oil,
emits almost as much CO² as all 25 EU states combined.
Earth's temperature is dangerously high - NASA
•
Researchers at Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said that
Earth's temperature was now reaching its highest level in a million
years. Dr James Hansen, who led the study, said further global
warming of just 1°C could lead to big changes to the planet. “If
warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be
relatively manageable,” he said. “But if further global warming reaches
2° or 3°C, the Earth may become a different planet [to] the one we
know now. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene,
about 3m years ago, when sea level was about 25 meters (80 feet)
higher than today.”
•
The study showed that there was already a threat of more extreme
weather like the strong El Niños in 1983 and 1998, when many
countries around the world had devastating floods and tornadoes.
•
Adapted from Hilary Osborne Tuesday September 26 2006 The Guardian
Hurricane Katrina, 2005, S E of New Orleans
The dispossessed.
Flooding in Bangladesh
Methane release
- potential disaster?
There are naturally-occurring greenhouse gases, mostly
methane, trapped in cold sediments and Arctic tundra.
There is ~400 gigatons of methane currently trapped in frozen
arctic tundra. If the temperature gets too high, and the
tundra defrosts, this methane will be released. Methane is
>20 times more efficient than CO² as a greenhouse gas, so
this could cause ‘runaway’ climate change.
Western Siberia in 2005...thawed for the first time in 11,000 years…
Is this a solvable problem?
Previous environmental treaties have had partial success:
The Montreal Protocol, which limits CFC emissions.
The Basle Convention, which
shipments of hazardous waste.
controls
trans-boundary
But these are relatively solvable problems compared to energy
use; carbon emissions derive from the use of our primary
energy sources.
Kyoto – redundant before ratified
•
•
•
The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not
ratified the protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on
the gases produced by developing countries.
China, which is now the world’s biggest consumer of coal
and second biggest consumer of oil, emits almost as
much carbon as the 25 members of the EU combined,
and will shortly overtake them to become the world’s
second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.
As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN
projections indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently
projected rise in average surface temperature of 1.4 to
5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.
So how do we fix this?
Surging demand
•
•
•
•
Transport still only accounts for 14% global
emissions, less than power generation and land-use.
However, air travel is the most rapidly-growing source
of carbon emissions. Air traffic has expanded at
~250% of average economic growth rates since
1959, driven by falling prices & growing demand.
The world fleet now comprises ~16,000 commercial
jet aircraft. These generate >600m tonnes of CO² per
year – almost as much CO² as Africa.
The growth in the demand for transport is one of the
more difficult problems in slowing climate change.
So – can science and technology save the planet?
‘Free’ power?
The Severn estuary, between England and Wales, has an
enormous tidal range of 8 metres. The UK is considering
a 10-mile long barrage across the estuary, enclosing 185
square miles of water.
The power output would be 8,640 MW during flow, or 2000
MW average power. This would provide 17 TWh of power
per year (about 6% of UK consumption), equivalent to
about 18 million tons of coal or 3 nuclear reactors.
Construction cost would be £12 billion, running costs about
£70 million/year, estimated lifespan 200 years.
The proposed Severn barrage
The solar-powered hydrogen station
1 Ultraviolet sunlight passes through glass skin of cell
2 Light is captured in glass coated with nano-crystalline film
3 Nano-coating properties enable the glass to conduct electricity,
which is used to separate the water into oxygen and hydrogen
4 Hydrogen gas is stored for later use as a power source
The garage roof provides the fuel
With a 10%-efficient cell, a seven square metre array would generate enough
hydrogen to power a Mercedes A class car for 11,000 miles a year [in LA
sunlight conditions] without having to go to a filling station.
The solar potential
Projections suggest that by 2012-2015, large hydrogen
cell farms (square miles of arrays in deserts) could
produce hydrogen, untaxed, at $1.80 to $3 a kilo,
about a third of the price of the same amount of
power produced from untaxed gasoline.
The UK Government (2006) Code
for Sustainable Homes
• The new code introduced a 6-point rating for new
houses, with the target of making all new houses 100%
more efficient by 2016. A Level 3 house requires no
heating; the heat from appliances and the occupants is
sufficient. A Level 6 house requires no energy inputs at
all; it is a zero-energy, zero-carbon house.
• Prefabrication allows houses to be made almost airtight,
eliminating heat gain or loss. Heat-sensor controlled air
vents regulate temperature and airflow. Interior wall and
ceiling panels absorb and release heat, reducing the
need for air conditioning or heating. There are PVs and
solar thermal panels, roof-mounted wind turbines, smart
metering, biomass boilers utilizing wood pellets and the
household’s own combustible waste, rainwater
harvesting and grey water recycling.
The UK’s first zero emission house
1. Wind catcher for summer ventilation
2. Solar thermal and PV panels on roof
3. Thick wall insulation
4. Biomass boiler (wood pellets and household waste)
The solar arrays
India
• A UNIDO project in India is building a model village of 100 energyefficient homes, average cost US$3,500 each, including PV power.
The innovative use of local materials made the construction cost 3050% cheaper than conventional buildings; for example:
• The use of wood fibre/hemp stalk mixed with cement to form
building-blocks. One hectare of land can produce enough fibre for a
house, so part of Jamaica’s farmland could supply a new
construction industry.
• Straw bale walls - the straw is threshed, fireproofed, baled in wire
and laid in courses on a concrete foundation, pinned together with
rebar and rendered with limecrete. This gives good insulation &
sound-absorbing qualities and is structurally sound to ~24 feet,
enough for a 2 storey house.
• The application of a layer of external render of mixed hemp stalk and
limecrete, coated on brick buildings to form an insulating layer.
• The use of unfired mud brick (adobe) and rammed earth to form
walls. Some projects have used old tyres, filled with rammed earth,
pinned together with vertical rebar, pointed with rammed earth and
rendered with limecrete.
Biofuels
• Generation 1: cane/corn derived ethanol.
• Generation 2: cellulosic ethanol.
• Generation 3: synthetic genomics
Man-made microbe 'to create endless biofuel'
Daily Telegraph 08/06/2007
• A scientist is poised to create the world's first man-made
species, a synthetic microbe that could lead to an
endless supply of biofuel. Craig Venter, an American who
cracked the human genome in 2000, is applying for
worldwide patents for Mycoplasma laboratorium, based
on functionalised synthetic DNA.
• It is part of an effort to create designer bugs to
manufacture hydrogen and biofuels, as well as absorb
carbon dioxide and other harmful greenhouse gases. In
theory, by adding DNA, the bacterium could be
instructed to produce plastics, drugs or fuels.
• Mr Venter claims that the microbe could be the key to
cheap energy production. The patent application
specifically claims an organism that can make either
hydrogen or ethanol for industrial fuels.
BP joins genetic pioneer for research
Daily Telegraph 14/06/2007
• BP has signed a development deal with Synthetic Genomics, a
US company run by Craig Venter. As part of the agreement,
BP has also made an equity investment in Synthetic
Genomics, which is close to creating the first synthetic genetic
codes, or genomes.
• In the first phase of the BP/Synthetic Genomics program, the
research will focus on gaining a better understanding of
microbial communities in various hydrocarbon formations such
as oil, natural gas, coal and shale. Synthetic Genomics will
use its expertise in reading the genetic codes of organisms,
and growing them in the lab. Once the basic science research
phases are complete, BP and Synthetic Genomics will jointly
commercialize any discoveries, which could include microbes
that can make fuel.
• "Through our research collaboration with BP, we will achieve a
better understanding of the hydrocarbon bioconversion
process which we are confident will yield substantial cleaner
energy sources,“ said Dr Venter.
So – can we save ourselves?
Answer: potentially, yes…..with luck…
Thank you !