Transcript Diapositive 1

Advanced analysis of the HLY
2005 values
Carol Jagger, University of Leicester, UK
and the EHLEIS team
Lisbon Strategy
• In 2001 additional target set:
– To increase the proportion of older people ( aged 55-64) in
the workforce to 50% by 2010
• In 2004 Healthy Life Years (HLY) added to the list of
structural indicators
• “Increasing healthy life years will be a crucial factor
in achieving this objective (of modernising social
protection systems and strengthening pensions and
healthcare).” (2005 Spring Council)
Healthy productive life in the EU
• Focus on Healthy Life Years at age 50
– Are countries with highest life expectancies the healthiest?
– What is the variation in Healthy Life Years at age 50?
– What factors explain differences among countries (wealth,
health expenditure, employment, education)?
– What is the potential for increasing the size of the older
workforce?
Are countries with highest life
expectancies the healthiest?
Life years and Healthy Life Years
Men
DK
24
MT
22
IT
HLY at age 50 (years)
NL
UK
20
GR
BE
IE SE
ES
18
LU
PL
FR
CY
16
SI
PT
CZ
AT
14
DE
SK
FI
12
LV
LT
10
HU
EE
8
20
22
24
26
28
LE at age 50 (years)
30
32
What is the variation in Healthy
Life Years at age 50?
Variation in Healthy Life Years
What factors explain differences
among countries?
Methods
• Relevant macro-level factors, structural and sustainable indicators, for
each country were obtained from the Europa Eurostat website:
•
•
•
wealth and expenditure (GDP, poverty risk for aged 65+, inequality of income
distribution, expenditure on elderly care),
labour force participation (employment rate of older workers, long term unemployment
rate, mean exit age from labour force),
education (life-long learning, low education attainment), and were
• To investigate the relationships between HLY50 and country specific
structural indicators meta-regression models were fitted
•
•
•
•
–
each structural indicator was entered singly
separate models for males and females
Models for all the EU25 countries together, then EU15 and EU10 separately
scatter plots of all relationships were assessed visually to ascertain if any relationships
were the result of just one or two data points.
Indicators: definition and quality
Indicator
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Expenditure on elderly care
Poverty risk for 65+ yrs
Inequality of income distribution
Employment rate of older workers
Long term unemployment rate
Mean exit age from the labour force
Life-long learning
Low education attainment
Definition
GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards, (EU-25=100).
The share of social protection expenditure devoted to old age care
(covering care allowance, accommodation, and assistance in
carrying out daily tasks) as a percentage of GDP.
Persons aged 65 years and over with an equivalised disposable income
below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60% of the national
median equivalised disposable income after social transfers, as a
percentage of all aged 65 years and over.
The ratio of total income received by the 20% of the population with the
highest income (top quintile) to that received by the 20% of the population
with the lowest income (lowest quintile).
Employed persons aged 55-64 years as a percentage of the total population
of the same age group.
Long-term unemployed (12 months and more) as a percentage of the total
active population.
Mean exit age from the labour force weighted by the probability of
withdrawal from the labour market.
Percentage of the adult population aged 25-64 years participating in
education and training over the four weeks prior to the survey.
Percentage of the population aged 25-64 years having completed at
most lower secondary education (International Standard
Classification of Education level of 2 or less).
Quality grade*
A
Not available
C
C
A
A
Not available
Not available
Not available
What factors explain difference?
EU25
EU15
Macro indicator
M
F
GDP per capita
+
+
Expenditure on elderly care
+
+
M
EU10
F
M
F
+
+
Poverty risk for >65yrs (%)
Inequality of income distribution
-
Employment rate of older workers
Long term unemployment rate
+
Mean exit age from labour force
Life-long learning (%)
+
Low education attainment (%)
+
+
+
Health expenditure and HLY50
Low education attainment and HLY50
What is the potential to increase
the size of the older workforce?
Key messages
• Women live on average 6 years longer than men but most of
the extra years are with moderate or severe activity
limitations.
• At age 50 the expected HLY are 17.6 for men and 19.1 for
women on average in the EU25
• Gaps between Member States reach 14.5 years for men and
13.7 years for women, underlying that the labour force
participation of older workers cannot be expected to be
uniform throughout all MS.
Full paper
Inequalities in healthy life years in the 25 countries of the
European Union in 2005: a cross-national meta-regression
analysis
Carol Jagger, Clare Gillies, Francesco Moscone, Emmanuelle
Cambois, Herman Van Oyen, Wilma Nusselder, Jean-Marie
Robine, and the EHLEIS team
Lancet, published online November 17, 2008
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61594-9
Advanced analysis of the HLY
2005 values
Carol Jagger, University of Leicester, UK
and the EHLEIS team