Transcript 2i. Professor Bibby

AIMS
Consider linkages between AONBs and
the broader space economy
Review Demand for Housing and its
Accommodation 2001-2011
Examine the Role of AONBs in
accommodating dwellings
suggest some Implications
Contemporary Economy: Attenuated
Linkages
Valued Landscapes imply Residential
Desirability and demand pressure
in many AONBs
Community Types
Community Types
Many AONBs provide
homes to high status
households supplying
labour to a broad range
of employment centres
(shown in purple)
Economic Mass (10km)
The number of persons
living within 10kms of any
point serves as a proxy for
economic mass A contour of
average economic mass lies
where the palaest pink
meets the green
shade;areas with lowest
economic mass being shown
in blue.
Low economic mass implies
lower development pressure
Implied Travel Distance &
AONBs
It is possible to model the average
distance which people will travel to
work from any point on the basis of
opportunities at different distances
away and other factors including
whether the home is in an AONB
The shortest modelled distances are
shown in purple ranging through
oranges to the longest in deep brown.
Of course, actual travel distances differ
from these expectations. Overlaid reds
show where people travel further than
expectation; overlaid blues show places
from which they travel less far
Travel Distance & AONBs
Red divergences
indicates longer than
expected travel
distances-indicative of
high residential
desirability
Work Travel from the Cotswolds AONB
AONBs: Elite Residential
Enclaves
Household Growth & Its
Accommodation
Demand driven by
falling household size
single living
greater longevity
dependent upon long-run growth in real
income
Household Growth & its
Accommodation
Supply response
housebuilders castigated by Barker
planning system also castigated
Prices rise
but demand is not entirely choked off
within the market varying adaptive responses
bring forth dwelling units of various types
Change in Dwelling Stock:
England; 2001-2011
Patterns of change can be examined by
comparing dwellings to which Royal Mail deliver
latters
1.85 M Additional Dwellings Accommodated in
England (1.95M E&W)
Three Fifths accommodated in Urban Areas
(10,000+)
Stock grew by 8.8%
Marked growth of dwellings away from isolated
farmsteads, hamlets, villages or larger
settlements
Change in Dwelling Stock:
2001-2011
Intensity of shading
Change in Dwelling Stock:
2001-2011: Practice Paradox
Change in Dwelling Stock:
2001-2011
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; Northern England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; Northern England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; Central England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; South Central England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; South West England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; South Central England
Accommodating Dwellings:
AONBs; South East England
Change in Dwelling Stock:
AONBs; 2001-2011
Accommodate an Additional 44,000 Dwellings
Represents 2.3% of Addition in England and
Wales
Stock Grew by 9.8%
20,000 extra dwellings ‘nowhere’
Density of dwellings in AONBs grew by 2.2
units per sq km
Growth in Dwelling Stocks ..
Nidderdale
Blackdown Hills
North Devon
Forest Of Bowland
Northumberland Coast
North Pennines
Quantock Hills
Lincolnshire Wolds
Shropshire Hills
Dorset
Mendip Hills
Dwelling Growth 2001-2011
LTG Index
26.3
146
22.8
22.1
21.6
19.3
16.8
16.5
14.4
14.1
12.1
11.6
143
284
157
348
76
151
124
187
266
113
Comparing Patterns of
Accommodation 2001-2011
Use Overall Increase in Ambient Dwelling
Density across an area:
in AONBs: 2.2 extra dwellings per sq km
in Buffer: 7.8 extra dwellings per sq km
Comparing Patterns of
Accommodation 2001-2011
But if we consider only non-town rural
AONBs overall: 2.2 extra dwellings per sq km
nt rural Buffe: 2.4 extra dwellings per sq km
Comparing Patterns of
Accommodation 2001-2011
What about increase in ambient density
due to dwellings away from settlement?
in AONBs: 1.0 extra dwellings per sq km
in Buffer: 0.5 extra dwellings per sq km
So how are dwellings actually
accommodated in AONBs?
Contribution to increase in ambient
density per sq km
dwellings away from settlement 1.0
all other dwellings
1.2
So how are dwellings actually
accommodated in AONBs?
Clusters of 50+ units:
All other settings
Total
9,500
34,500
44,000
Pareto, Peapods and
Planning
Vilfredo Pareto noticed that 20% of the pea-pods
in his garden yielded 80% of the peas
In many cases 80% of effects flow from 20% of
causes
This is the Pareto Principle or the 80:20 Rule
It often serves to focus attention and guide
effort
But the figures above show that accommodation
of dwellings in AONBS IS NOT SUCH A CASE
Clusters of 50+
Clusters of 50+
Tisbury
Hermitage
Pateley Bridge
Ticehurst
Pangbourne
Maiden Newton
Tetbury
St Just
Church Stretton
Lyme Regis
Seahouses
Hawkhurst
Fowey
Reydon
Salcombe
Budleigh Salterton
Wotton Under Edge
Southwold
Llangollen
Hawkinge
Chipping Norton
Ross On Wye
Marlborough
Swanage
Bridport
Clusters of 50+
Pymore
Eddington
Sidmouth
Bourton On The Water
St Merryn
Wye
Battle
Mevagissey
Blandford Forum
Hemyock
Wormley
Chillington
Sherston
Naphill
Moreton In Marsh
Longhoughton
Kingsbridge
Colwall
Woolacombe
Forest Row
Tadworth
Uplyme
Broadway
Sheringham
Kirkby Malzeard
Combe Martin
Aldeburgh
Hungerford
Brixham
Beadnell
Baydon
Pewsey
West Bay
Three Half-Formed Thoughts
1) What is it to be
Strategic?
Is it to consider only the larger
developments (thereby ignoring not only
most developments but the largest
portion of aggregate development?)
1) What is it to be
Strategic?
Or is it to reduce uncertainty by
actually taking account of the nature of the
forces for change in AONBs and charting the
progress more clearly
clarifying the manner and circumstances in
which additional dwellings matter to AONBs
through discussion and debate within the
AONB community
ensuring that agrreed understandings and
approaches are shared with LPAs
2) Don’t Allow Panic and
Denial
 Startling household growth in some AONBs reflects
demand pressure which can assist in achieving high
quality schemes
 Recognize that planners tend to deny the significance of
scattered development against overwhelming evidence
 Accept that the 80:20 rule does not apply to rural
development
 Engage with clearly demonstable market-driven trends,
harnessing and moderating them rather than denying
them
3) Policy and Implementation
Recognize that engaging with physical
development in AONBs in its actual forms
demands planning policy which applies to
small-scale devlopment
Recognize that implementation demands
that officers and members of LPAs
recognize at the point of decision that the
80:20 rule does not apply