Transcript Document

Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia,
World Bank
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic:
a multi-stakeholder effort
Key Message #1
Africa has a similar water
endowment to other
continents but captures
much less for development
Both in relative and absolute terms Africa
captures a smaller share of water than others
Cubic meters per capita per year
Middle East and North Africa
Asia
South America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central America & Caribbean
Europe
North America
Availability of
renewable water
resources
Human usage
of water
resources
Percentage
withdrawn
1,505
807
54%
4,079
631
15%
4,704
474
10%
6,322
173
3%
6,924
603
9%
10,655
581
5%
19,992
1,663
8%
54,636
900
2%
Oceania
Key Message #2
A combination of difficult
hydrology and complex
geopolitics are responsible
Africa has exceptionally variable rainfall
across seasons and across years
Africa has exceptionally variable rainfall
across seasons and across years
Climate change will only
exacerbate existing variability yet Africa can’t even cope
with what it has today
Africa has 60 international rivers
making cooperation vital but challenging
Key Message #3
Major investment in
hydraulic infrastructure
needed to buffer economies
from droughts and floods
Floods and droughts have huge economic
impact but buffering them is costly
 Extreme hydrological events (droughts/floods) have
major macro-economic impacts
 Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique all losing 1% GDP annually
 Africa’s per capita water storage capacity is 200m3
versus at least 1,000m3 in other developing regions
 Cost of increasing storage by these multiples would be
prohibitive in economic terms
 Raising Ethiopia’s storage to RSA levels would cost US$35bn,
Floods and droughts have huge economic
impact and represent a drag on growth
Total economic
shock
Kenya
Annualized average
economic impact
El Nino flood, 1997–98
US$m
1,400
US$m
102
% GDP
0.8
La Nina drought, 1998–2000
2,000
203
1.6
550
42
1.1
-
87
1.1
Mozambique
Floods of 2000
Ethiopia
Historical variability
Africa has absolutely minimal storage
capacity to buffer hydrological shocks
Africa has absolutely minimal storage
capacity to buffer hydrological shocks
Raising Ethiopia’s storage level
to that of South Africa’s would
cost US$35 billion more than
three times Ethiopia’s GDP
Key Message #4
Significant potential for
irrigation development but
crucially sensitive to costs
About 7 million hectares of new irrigation
potential – predominantly small scale
IRR threshold of 12%
Small scale schemes
Large scale schemes
Total new schemes
Rehabilitating existing schemes
Total
Agricultural area
Investment Internal Rate of
Return (%)
(millions hectares) (US$billion pa)
5.4
1.8
26
1.4
0.3
17
6.8
2.1
25
1.7
0.6
Na.
8.5
2.7
25
Irrigation is mostly viable only for cash or high value food
crops (horticulture) with revenues >US$2,000/ha/yr
Small scale gives much higher returns,
but potential area much more sensitive to cost
Hectares as percentage of base case
250%
200%
Large
scale
schemes
150%
100%
Small scale
schemes
50%
0%
0
5,000
Cost (US$ per hectare)
10,000
Spatial extension of large and small scale
irrigation potential identified
Irrigation potential concentrated in some
15 countries, most notably Nigeria
Note: Graphs show all countries with more than 50,000
hectares of potential for large or small scale irrigation
Key Message #5
Progress towards
Millenium Development Goals
for water and sanitation
painfully slow
Access trends stagnant at best, fastest
growth takes place on lower rungs of ladder
Second best solutions as inequitably
distributed as first best solutions
Key Message #6
Existing spending nowhere
near high enough to meet the
Millenium Development Goals
There is a funding gap of $11.3 billion a
year – even after recouping inefficiencies
LIC,
Fragile
LIC,
NonFragile
RR
MIC
SSA
(4.8)
(7.6)
(6.1)
(3.6)
(21.9)
Spending
0.4
1.8
1.7
2.3
7.6
Efficiency Gap
0.4
0.6
0.7
1.3
2.9
Capital Execution
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
Operational Inefficiencies
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
1.0
Cost Recovery
0.2
0.3
0.2
1.0
1.8
Financing Gap
(3.9)
(5.2)
(3.7)
(0.0)
(11.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
US$billion pa
Needs
Potential for reallocation
Zambia
Ghana
Malawi
Madagascar
Senegal
Cote d'Ivoire
Mozambique
Cape Verde
Lesotho
South Africa
Cost Recovery
Niger
Kenya
Burkina Faso
Rwanda
Namibia
Ethiopia
Capital Execution
Nigeria
Benin
Tanzania
Resource-Rich
MIC
LIC-NoFragile
1.4
LIC-Fragile
SSA
percentage of the GDP
A number of countries have an efficiency
gap in excess of 0.5 percent of GDP
Operational Inefficiencies
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
South Africa
Cameroon
Ghana
Namibia
Chad
Nigeria
Lesotho
Burkina Faso
Mozambique
Senegal
Rwanda
Uganda
Zambia
Cote d'Ivoire
Malawi
Benin
Niger
Tanzania
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
LICF
LICNF
MIC
RR
SSA
percentage of the GDP
A number of countries have a funding gap
in excess of 2 percent of GDP
12
O&M
Investment
10
8
6
4
2
0
Key Message #7
A case where subsidies may
be the enemy of the poor
6
5
6
6
LICNF
LICF
RR
MIC
Congo
Madagascar
Cote d'Ivore
Chad
Ethipia
Nigeria
Niger
Senegal
Mozambique
Kenya
Lesotho
South Africa
Rwanda
Ghana
Sudan
Benin
Zambia
Borkina Faso
Namibia
cape Verde
SSA
22
23
25
36
37
38
39
43
47
50
52
53
63
74
76
42
43
59
115
128
Effective residential tariffs per m3 at 10 m3/year (US cents)
309
On average water tariffs cover less than two
thirds of full capital costs of US$1.00/m3
Piped water subsidies are highly regressive
in their distributional incidence
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Measure of distributional incidence
0.8
PROGRESSIVE
REGRESSIVE
Senegal
CAR
Gabon
Congo
Nigeria Kaduna
Togo
RDC
Nigeria FCT
Cameroon
Côte d'ivoire
Niger
Chad
Cape Verde
Burundi
Malawi Blantyre
Ghana
Guinea
Uganda
Malawi Lilongwe
Burkina
Rwanda
1
Cost recovery tariffs would be affordable
to MICs and LIC populations with access
Cost recovery tariffs would be affordable
to MICs and LIC populations with access
LOWER BOUND
LOWER BOUND – subsistence consumption defined as six
cubic meters at $1 each or 10 cubic meters at $0.60 each
Cost recovery tariffs would be affordable
to MICs and LIC populations with access
LOWER BOUND
Cost recovery tariffs would be affordable
to MICs and LIC populations with access
UPPER BOUND
LOWER BOUND
UPPER BOUND – subsistence consumption defined as
ten cubic meters at $1 each (full capital cost recovery)
Cost recovery tariffs would be affordable
to MICs and LIC populations with access
UPPER BOUND
LOWER BOUND
Key Message #8
Institutional reforms have
proved even harder to
implement than elsewhere
Detrimental impact of utility inefficiency
on service expansion and quality
90
Percentage of sample
passing chlorine test
Average annualized
increase in access
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
85
80
75
70
65
0.0%
Employees
per
connection
Above average
Hidden cost
Below average
Employees per
Connection
Below average
Hidden Costs
Above average
Evidence that private sector participation
has improved performance
Key Message #9
Focus on ‘high end’
solutions may mean bulk
of population misses out
Adopting lower standards can reduce costs
of meeting connectivity targets by XXX%
9.0
Basic scenario
Pragmatic scenario
8.0
Percentage of GDP of country
grouping
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
MIC
Resource-Rich
LIC-Nonfragile
LIC-Fragile
SSA
0.0
Key Message #10
Some countries may
simply need more time
to reach MDG targets
Time needed to meet MDG targets with
today’s budget envelopes
Years taken to reach MDG target
(counting from 2006)
Existing spending only
Existing spending plus efficiency
gains
MIC
RR
LIC,
NonFragile
LIC,
Fragile
variation in resources needed (% deviation from
current envelope)
Existing resource envelope
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
number of years needed to attain investment targets
LIC-Fragile
LIC-NoFragile
MIC
Resource-Rich
variation in resources needed (% deviation from
current envelope)
Resource envelope plus potential
efficiency gains
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
number of years needed to attain investment targets
LIC-Fragile
LIC-NoFragile
MIC
Resource-Rich