Transcript 3 Professor Christos ZEREFOS Parousiasi

“The environmental, economic and social
impacts of climate change in Greece”
Christos Zerefos
Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies (with respect to
1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002. (Luterbacher et. al., 2006)
N A O in d e x
4
2
0
-2
Changes in Rainy Season
Precipitation during 20th
century and its relationship
with North Atlantic Oscillation
Index (NAOi)
-4
1600
(OCT-APR) PRECIPITATION (mm)
1400
1200
W . Greece
1000
800
r = -0.38 ( >99% conf. level)
600
E.G r e e c e
r = -0.21 ( 95% conf. level)
400
200
600
r = -0.19 ( 90% conf. level)
E.A e g e a n
400
200
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Emissions scenarios
Temporal Evolution of
CO2 Concentration
under different emission scenarios
Emission Scenarios
Storyline
SRES
Economic
Growth
Energy
Consumption
Energy
Sources
Global
Population
Growth
CO2
Concentration
in 2100
SRES
Α2
Moderate
Very High
Emphasis
on FossilFuels
Rapid and
continuously
increasing
850 ppm
SRES
Α1Β
Rapid
Very High
Balanced
emphasis
on all
energy
sources
Rising up to
9 billion in
2050 and
then
declining
720 ppm
SRES
Β2
Moderate
Moderate
Balanced
emphasis
on all
energy
sources
Continuously
increasing
Slower rate
than in SRES
A2
620 ppm
SRES
Β1
Rapid
Low
Renewable
Energy
sources
Rising up to
9 billion in
2050 and
then
declining
550 ppm
Greek Climatic Zones
WCM: West-Central
Macedonia
EMT: Eastern
Macedonia/Thrace
WG: West Greece
CEG: Central-Eastern
Greece
ATT: Attica
WP: West Peloponnese
EP: Eastern Peloponnese
I: Ionian
ΝΑ: North Aegean
ΕΑ: East Aegean
CY: Cyclades
C: Crete
D: Dodecanese
Climate
At the end of 21st century, due to anthropogenic activity:
• precipitation will reduce between 5% and 19% for the territory
• air temperature will increase between 3,0 ºC and 4,5 ºC
• relative humidity will decrease between 1% to 4%
• intensity of annual winds will increase by 10%
• cloud cover will decrease between 8% and 14%
• mean incident solar radiation will increase between 2,3 W/m2 και 4,5
W/m2
Mean Air Temperature
SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change
between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
•
•
•
SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Mean Air Temperature Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
SRES B2
SRES
A1B
SRES A2
•
te
se
es
ce
ad nne Cre ree
cl
a
G
y
k
C de
Do
an
2021-2050, SRES A1B : Over Greece
Mean annual air Temperature increase by
1.4 oC.
2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual air
Temperature increase by
2.8 oC (SRES B2) up to
3.9 oC (SRES A2)
Temperature increase is more significant
during summer and autumn than during
winter and spring.
Temperature increase is more prominent
over land.
Precipitation
SRES
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation
Percentage Change
B2
Between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
SRES
A1B
SRES
A2
•
e
e
a
an
an des ese rete ece
an
es
es
t ic
ni ege ege
e
n
a
C
At onn onn
Io
cl
an
Gr
A
A
p
p
t
Cy dek
h
s
t
lo
lo
r
a
e
e
E
Do
No
t P rn P
e
st
a
E
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change
Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
2021-2050, SRES A1B:
Over
Greece
Mean
annual
Precipitation is predicted to decrease
by 6.5%.
2071-2100:
Over
Greece
Mean
annual
Precipitation is predicted to decrease
by 5% (SRES B2)
and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2)
Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change
Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Relative Humidity
SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative
Humidity between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
•
•
SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative
Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Continental
Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is
predicted to decrease by 2%.
2071-2100:
Over Continental Greece Mean annual
Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease
for 2.5% up to 4% (SRES B2)
and for 6% up to 10% (SRES A2)
Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to
be more significant for summer season.
Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between
2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Wind Speed
SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change
between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
•
•
SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind
Speed will be not change during 21th
century
2071-2100:
Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to
increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the
contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5%
over Ionian
During summer Etesian Winds will be
increase significantly up to 10%
Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Cloud Fractional Cover
SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change
between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
•
2021-2050, SRES A1B:
Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional
Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6%
2071-2100:
Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is
predicted to be reduced
by 8% (SRES B2)
by 12% (SRES A1B)
by 14% (SRES A2)
SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Cloud Fractional Cover
Percentage Change(%)
0
-2
-4
SRE
B2
-6
-8
SRE
A1B
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
e
a
e
e
e
s
e
e
e
e
a
n
n
n
ni
et
ac
ec ttic nes nes nia gea gea ade nes
ec
ec
l
Cr Gre
do Thr Gre Gre
o
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n
n
e
A
I
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e
a
o
o
/
A
A
y
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t
t
ac nia
n
C
op lop
de
es
rth Eas
er
el
e
o
lM
W ast
Do
No
ra ced
t P rn P
t
s
E
e
le
en Ma
W ast
tra
n
t-C
E
en
es ster
C
W
Ea
SRE
A2
Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation
Change
between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
•
•
•
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation
Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
2021-2050, SRES A1B:
Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface
Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m2.
2071-2100:
Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface
Radiation increase
by 3,1 W/m2 (SRES B2)
by 4,1 W/m2 (SRES A2)
The increase is more prominent over land,
especially in western and northern parts
Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change
between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Climate
Changes are also expected on
•
•
•
•
extreme precipitation values
flood periods
duration of dry periods
number of days with a highly increased risk of fire
Precipitation deficit as
drought potential
indication (number of
events for the period
1904-1995)
Maximum duration of dry season
Increase of maximum duration of dry
season in Eastern Continental
Greece and Northern Crete
2021-2050 μείον 1961-1990
• by 20 additional days in 20212050
• by 40 additional days in 20712100
2071-2100 μείον 1961-1990
Lower increases in westerm and
northern Greece up to 20 days in
2071-2100
Forest fire distribution on
European level (1997-2003)
Number of days with highly increased forest
fire risk
Increase in the number of days with
highly increased forest fire risk in
eastern Greece
2021-2050 minus 1961-1990
• 20 days in 2021-2050
• 40 days in 2071-2100
Lower increases in western Greece
due to wetter climate
2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
Water Resources
Total losses for the economy of Greece:
•0,34% of GDP
for the A1B Emissions Scenario with discount rate 3%
•1,69% of GDP
for the A2 Emissions Scenario with discount rate 1%
Important potential for adaptation actions
Sea Level Rise and
Consequences in Coastal Areas
• €4.4bn for a sea level rise of 0.5m
• €8bn for a sea level rise of 1m
Fishing Industry
Losses for Greek economy:
€14.8m to €2.5m depending on
•Emissions Scenario
•Discount rate 1% to 3%)
Economic cost of the reduction of biodiversity:
€287m to €1,896m
Agriculture
•Loss of agricultural land:
• 19% by 2040-2050
• 38% by 2090-2100
•Warm-friendly cultivations: +20%
Cold-friendly cultivations: -20%
•Positive impact in northern and western Greece
•No impact in Central Greece
•Negative impact in southern Greece and islands including Crete
Negative effects most pronounced near the end of the 21st century
Forestry and Forest Ecosystems
•Fire fighting expenses will rise by €40m (Β2) to €80m (Α2)
•Direct consecuences:
•Losses of €1.4bn (Β2) with discount rate 3%
•Losses of €9.5bn (Α2) with discount rate 1%
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
•€1.14m to €240.83m for forest ecosystems
•€15.59m to €172.1m for the lakes Cheimaditida and Kerkini
The total economic consequences could not be estimated
The estimated consequences may be considered as the lower limit of the
total
Tourism
Tourism climate index
•
•
•
Winter and spring: Improvment
Autumn: Great improvment
Summer: Significant worsening
Crete: Rise in the mean annual income
Dodekanese: Reduction in the mean annual income
Building environment
Cost for nulifying the energy consumption of the building
sector by 2050
•Additional cost due to climate change: 9.6%
•Ranges from 7.6% to 10.3% in the different areas
•Additional cost estimated to €20-21bn
Transportation
•Cost for the infrastructure maintenance €594,8m/year to €195m/year
depending on the GHG emissions
•Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events,
overheating of infrastructure etc.): €28bn to €9.3bn
Public Health
•Increase in mortality in Europe: 1% to 4%
•Mortality due to extreme temperatures, in Attica, in 2091-2100: 1620
deaths per year
•Economical cost for Attica: €95m per year
•Mortality increase in Ahens: 2260 to 1455 deaths per year
•Economical cost for Athens: €85m to €135m
Cost of No-Action Scenario
•Annual GDP reduction in 2050: 2%
Annual GDP reduction in 2100: 6%
•Accumulated cost to 2100: €701bn (values of 2008)
•The accumulated cost to 2100 equals to three times the GDB of Greece
Similar results have been reached for the whole Earth
Cost of Mitigation Scenario
•Cost of GHG emissions reduction: €142bn
•Cost of residual climate change
•Accumulated cost of Mitigation Scenario to 2100: €436bn
•€265bn less (-40%) than No-Action Scenario
Discount rate was concidered zero
Cost of Adaptation Scenario
Sum of
•Cost of adaptation measures
•Cost of damages due to climate change
Accumulated cost of Adaptation Scenario to 2100: €578bn
Links
• http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/default.aspx
• http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx