Transcript PPT

VIETNAM: A COUNTRY, NOT A WAR
1
So Where is Vietnam?
2
A Closer View
The five points of the
star represent
farmers, workers,
intellectuals, youth
and soldiers
3
Feel-Like-I’m-Fixin’-To-Die Rag” by Country Joe McDonald (1968)
Yeah, come on all of you, big strong men,
Uncle Sam needs your help again.
He's got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder in Vietnam
So put down your books and pick up a gun,
We're gonna have a whole lotta fun.
And it's one, two, three,
What are we fighting for ?
Don't ask me, I don't give a damn,
Next stop is Vietnam;
And it's five, six, seven,
Open up the pearly gates,
Well there ain't no time to wonder why,
Whoopee! we're all gonna die.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBdeCxJmcAo
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Socialist Republic of Viet Nam
Independence, Freedom and Happiness
Total Area: 329,560 sq km (slightly larger than NM – 10 times Maryland)
Type of Government: Communist
President of Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Tan DUNG
(since 27 June 2006)
Head of Communist Party: Nong Duc Manh (since 2001)
Capital City: Hanoi
Population: Population: 86,116,560 (July 2008 est.)
Population growth rate: .99% (2008 est.)
Urban population: 30%
Population under age 15: 32.6 Percent
Infant mortality rate: 21.61 deaths/1,000 live births
Life expectancy at birth: 71.33 (2008 est.)
Total fertility rate: 1.86 (2008 est.)
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Major Economics Indicators
Major Economic Indicators, Viet Nam, 2006-2009, %
Item
2006
2007
2008
2009
GDP Growth
8.229%
8.48%
6.152 %
5.32
GDP (Current
Prices, US Dollars)
US$ 60.933
Billion
US$ 71.13
Billion
US$ 89.829
Billion
NA
GDP Per Capita
(PPP), US Dollars
US$ 2,357.02
US$ 2,602.48
US$ 2,783.75
Inflation (End of
Year Change %)
6.99%
12.631 %
19.891 %
Unemployment
Rate
2.40%
2.00%
4.30%
-3.8
-6.9
-5.1
-7.3
-0.269 %
-9.83 %
-9.384 %
-11.5%
Budget Balance
(% of GDP)
Current Account
Balance (% GDP)
6 -7 %
http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/country/Vietnam/
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Closer Look at the Rate of Inflation
40
Vietnam consumer price index
General
Food & Foodstuff
Non-food
percent
30
20
10
0
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Mainly driven by higher food prices. But non-food
inflation has risen too, and the causes are domestic
www.viet-studies.info/kinhte/WB_VN_June08.ppt
7
Poverty Level
8
Vietnamese Dong Exchange Rate
1$ = 17827 VND (November 10, 2009)
9
VN Stock Indexes
VN Stock Index
HCM Stock Index
Hanoi Stock Index
10
Structure of the Economy
Economic Sectors
Industry,
41.80%
Service,
38.10%
Agriculture
20.10%
Agriculture
Industry
Service
Agriculture Products :
Industries :
paddy rice, corn, potatoes, rubber, soybeans,
coffee, tea, bananas, sugar; poultry, pigs; fish
Aquaculture, particularly shrimp and catfish
farming,
food processing, garments, shoes, machinebuilding, mining, cement, chemical fertilizer, glass,
tires, oil, coal, steel, paper
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Foreign Direct Investment (July 2008)
12
Brief History
Struggle
with French
Colonialism
Pre 1945
Communist
forces of Ho
Chi Minh
force French
out.
1945
Independence
Democratic
Republic of
Vietnam
1954
South officially
integrated with
the North under
communist
rule.
1975
Southern
resistance
crumbles,
ending a 30year war
1976
1986
Acceptance
to WTO
2007
CPV implemented
free market
reforms known as
Doi Moi
Brief History
April 30, 1975 – Country Reunited. Beginning of Socialist experiment
supported by the USSR.
Vietnam “wins the war, but loses the peace.”
Economic policy brings country to the brink of starvation
Beginning in 1986, Vietnam embarks on a process of economic reform
and business liberalization (called doi moi)
Doi Moi involves transitioning from a centrally planned economy
towards a “market-oriented socialist economy ”
Since late 1980s, considerable economic progress
High growth during 1994-1997
Affected by Asian economics crisis (but mostly indirectly)
Signed US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2000
During the 2000s, one of the fastest growing economies in the world
January 11, 2007 – becomes a member of WTO
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The Doi Moi Reform Further Examined
Vietnam has grown rapidly in
the last 20 years but the
economy is still at the level of a
less developed country.
Indicators on infrastructure,
education, human development
index … range in 1/3 of the
lowest group in the world.
Vietnam has commitments on economic integration but the state
system, education … still have more disparities in comparison with
other countries in the world.
After more than twenty years of doi moi, Vietnam has established
the main elements of a “market-economy with socialist
orientation.”
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Vietnam’s Exports
Exports in 2008 were over US$57 billion in value.
US is Vietnam’ s largest export market.
Textiles and garments account for over 18% of total exports
Marine products account for 12%, and footwear for 11% of
total exports.
Vietnam is now the world's second largest exporter of rice and
coffee.
Crude oil now accounts for roughly 20% total export earnings.
Vietnam also generates substantial foreign exchange earnings
from foreign tourists and labor exports in which Vietnamese
workers work overseas
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17
Vietnam’s Main Competitive
Strengths and Weakness
Strengths
Low –cost labor
Hard-working labor force
High productivity in some sectors
Relatively educated labor force
Political Stability
Weaknesses
Corruption
Pace of Reform
Income Disparity
Education
Health: H1NI, Previously SARS, Bird Flu
18
19
World Bank Evaluation of Vietnam’s
Strengths and Weakness
20
Environmental Problems
Vietnam is at the beginning of the industrialization process,
but environmental damage is already severe:
deforestation and erosion of soil – leads to flooding etc.
water pollution due to rapid increase of aquaculture
abuse of fertilizers, insecticides and herbicides,
uncollected solid waste
industrial pollution in urban regions, increased dust, and
alarming increases of toxic gases are widespread.
Air quality in the cities is poor.
21
Good Thing it is Not Rush Hour!
22
Health Care System
Before 1975, Vietnam succeeded in establishing a three-tier
(commune, local, and central) health care system
Health care was generally free in all public health care centers,
but depending on one’s position in the political system, the
quality of health care was drastically different.
Given the low GDP per capita, the performance of Vietnam’s
health care system, measured by childhood mortality and life
expectancy, has and is relatively good.
Between 2000 and 2005, the infant mortality rate declined
from 36.7 per thousand to 17.8; the mortality rate for children
under five fell from 42.0 to 27.5 per thousand.
Accordingly, life expectancy at birth increased from 67.8 to
71.3 years (World Bank 2007).
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Health Care System
Public hospitals, especially well-known central clinics, are
desperately over-crowded; two patients (or even more for
children) must share a hospital bed, and family members must
take care of the patients and must fight for reasonable service.
This imbalance between demand and supply provides fertile soil
for bribery and abuse of power by the hospital staff.
Illness in Vietnam is one of the major causes of poverty or
misery and is one of the most serious concerns of the population.
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Doing Business In Vietnam
Doing Business
2010 rank
Doing Business
2009 rank
Change
in rank
Doing Business
93
91
-2
Starting a Business
116
109
-7
Dealing with
Construction Permits
69
67
-2
Employing Workers
103
100
-3
Registering Property
40
37
-3
Getting Credit
30
27
-3
Protecting Investors
172
171
-1
Paying Taxes
147
140
-7
Trading Across Borders
74
73
-1
Enforcing Contracts
32
39
+7
Closing a Business
127
126
-1
Ease of...
Based on Survey of 183 countries
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Doing Business In Vietnam
Doing Business in Vietnam: Overall Ease of Doing Business
(Vietnam 2007 - 91)
160
140
140
129
135
120
92
100
83
80
60
40
20
20
0
Singapore
13
Thailand
Malaysia
China
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Cambodia
26
Corruption Perception Index –
Transparency International
R
a
n
k
http://www.transparency.org
27
Most Corrupt Government Agencies
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Political and Economic Stability
Political and social stability
Political
Score
Rank Global
Rank
Singapore
93
1
1
Vietnam
81
19
Hong Kong
76
China
Social Unrest Ratings
Social
Instability
Political
Insurrection
Hong Kong
1.73
0.61
2
Singapore
2.75
0.5
34
3
South Korea
3.36
1
74
43
4
Vietnam
4.26
2.5
Malaysia
74
43
5
China
4.77
2.5
Indonesia
64
86
6
Thailand
5.21
5.34
South Korea
63
89
7
Malaysia
5.31
3.84
Philippines
57
109
8
Philippines
6.53
8.25
Thailand
55
113
9
Indonesia
6.7
7.43
Country
Sources: World Bank
Country
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Equitization of State - Owned
Enterprises
According to the Ministry of
Finance, the number of
SOEs equitized decreased
from 724 in 2005 to 640 in
2006, 150 in 2007, and 73 in
2008.
About 3,500 SOEs represent 40% of GDP
2007: 82 SOEs were equitized (21% planned)
2008-2010: Planned to rearrange 1,535 SOEs
Of which, 948 will be equitized
2008: Most equitizations were delayed
Explanation: Decline in stock market
June 2009: IPOs with reasonable starting price
2009: Plan to equitize some large banks, corp.
The State will retain ownership in:
• 100% - Public utilities, power transmission, oil and gas, aviation and
railways
• 50% - Energy, mining, telecoms, infrastructure, cement and steel
production, sanitation and water supply, and banking and insurance.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Doisongphapluat.com.vn, Deloitte and others
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Prospects
Regardless of impressive achievements in economic growth
and poverty reduction, Vietnam still has a long way to
achiever its growth targets.
Question as to weather Vietnam can overcome the “middleincome trap” and reach the level of high-income economy.
The state in Vietnam is not immune to corruption, conflict of
interests and abuse of power.
Transparency, openness, inclusive development have to be
implemented.
If Vietnam continues its reform efforts, build-ups the right
policies and appropriate institutions, Vietnam can overcome
these obstacles and achieve the long desired targets.
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VIETNAM IS A COUNTRY, NOT A WAR
Vietnam has made remarkable progress over the past two
decades in its transition to a market economy
Vietnam is a nation at peace concerned with improving the
living standard of its people.
Discussion of Vietnam should focus on the positive
developments of the last twenty years as it is an important
study of economic development, transition economics and
institutional change.
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