Integration of V&A analysis

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Transcript Integration of V&A analysis

Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment Hands-on
Training Workshop
Integration of V&A Analysis
Outline
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Integration of results
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General points
Cross sector and multisector integration
Setting priorities
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Vulnerability
Adaptation
Why is Integration Important?
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Impacts do not happen in isolation
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Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect
another
Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
Others just indirectly
Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect
of climate change in another sector
In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
vulnerabilities and adaptations
Main Types of Integration
of Results
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Cross-sector integration
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Link related sectors
Multisector
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Economy or system wide
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Integrated assessment models
Economic models
Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm
Direct Climate Effect
In a recent study, crop
yields in California were
generally estimated to
increase with climate
change
In one scenario, a 25%
reduction in water supply
results in a net loss of $1
billion/year to California
agriculture
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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS
GCM
CLIMATE
Precip.,
Temp.,
Solar Rad.
WATBAL
Streamflow
PET
CERES
Crop water
demand
CROPWAT
Regional
irrigation
SCENARIOS
Population, Development,
Technology
WEAP
Evaluation
Planning
Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
Indicator
Population
GDP Ag
GDP non-Ag
Food price index
1990
2060-Opt 2060-Pes
54156
122%
122%
1143
96%
135%
4878
617%
224%
1.16
6.90%
-3.40%
Multisector Integration
IMAGE Model
Regional/National Economic Models
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Quantitative way to examine climate change
market impacts throughout an economy
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Problem with nonmarket impacts
Often macroeconomic models or general
equilibrium models
Require much data
Can be expensive
Can be complex
Communication of assumptions can be a
challenge
An Example of a Regional Model
A More “Simple” Approach
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Add up results sector by sector
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Limited by what is known within sectors
Problem of how to integrate across multiple
end points
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Impacts may be measured with different
metrics
Need to account for many sectors
Does not capture sectoral interactions
Estimates of Damages for India
Sector
Damages ($ billions)
Agriculture
-53.2
Forestry
+0.1
Energy
-21.9
Water
-$1.2
Coastal Resources
-0.1
Can Also Measure
Number of People Affected
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“Millions at Risk” study did this
Global burden of disease
Millions at Risk Study
At a Minimum
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Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
and possible direction of impacts
If crops can be examined, not water supply,
then identify how change in water supply
could affect agricultural production
Integration through
Setting Priorities
Vulnerability
 Adaptation
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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
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It can be quite useful for
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Focusing adaptation measures
Monitoring
Adaptation
Process is as Important
as Outcome
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This is an expression of values, not a purely
analytic exercise
Need to include stakeholders and policy
makers
The following are tools that can be useful in
setting priorities
Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
approach, the most important thing is JUST
DO IT
NAPA
Process
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
System/
Region/
Hazard
Social
impacts
Economic
impacts
Environmental
impacts
Political
impacts
Ranking
A
B
C
OECD Method
Table 5.5. Nepal ranking
Resource/ranking
Water resources (flooding)
Certainty of
impact
High
Timing of
impact
High
Severity of
impact
High
Importance of
resource
High
Agriculture
Human health
Biodiversity
Medium-low
Low
Low
Medium-low
Medium
?
Medium
?
?
High
High
Medium-high
Ranking Adaptations
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Screening
Multicriteria assessment
Benefit-cost analysis
Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and
Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua
Multicriteria Assessment
Options
Effectiveness Feasibility Cost
Score
A
3
2
2
7
B
2
4
4
10
C
5
1
3
9
Adaptation Decision Matrix
for Agriculture in Kazakhstan
Objective
Objective
Objective
#1:
Objective
#3:
Objective #4:
#5:
Food
#2:
Maximize Sustainable
Protect
Security
Exports Production
Agricult.
Env.
Measures Scenario:
Current
Policy
Pest
Forecast
Regional
Centers
Rules for
Free
Market
Soil
Erosion
2
3
5
2
3
Objective
Objective
#7: Genetic
#8:
Diversity Employment
1
4
Score
Current
4.00
0.70
1.00
2.00
4.00
4.00
4.50
4
74.9
GFDL
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
1
32.5
+3; 0%
1.5
0.7
0.5
1.5
3
3
3
2
43.9
+2; +20%
3.5
1
1
2.5
4
4
4
3.5
73
5
2
3
3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4
96
Current
2
1.5
0.7
1.5
2
3.3
3
1.1
43.9
+3; 0%
GFDL
2.5
1.5
0.7
2
3
3.3
3
2.1
54.9
+2; +20%
4.5
2
1.5
3.5
4
4.3
4
3.6
87.8
5
1.5
2
2.5
4
4
5
4
87.5
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
3.00
5
1
35.5
Current
GFDL
+3; 0%
1.5
1
0.5
1.5
3
3
5
2
46.5
+2; +20%
3.5
1.5
1
2.5
4
4
5
3.5
75
5
3
3.5
3
4
4
4.5
4
97
1.3
1.1
0.8
2.5
2.5
3.5
3
1.3
47.3
2
1.1
1
3
3.5
3.5
3
2.3
59.9
4.5
1.7
2
4.5
4.5
4.5
4
3.9
96.5
Current
GFDL
+3; 0%
+2; +20%
Reduce
5
Objective
#6:
Prevent
Desertification
Current
5
3
5
5
5
5
4.5
4
116.5
GFDL
2.5
1.5
1.5
3
4
3.5
3
1.2
61.3
+3; 0%
3.2
1.5
1.5
3.5
4.5
3.7
3
2.2
72.9
+2; +20%
4.3
2
2.2
4.5
5
5
4
3.8
98.8
Ranking Based on Scenario
Culture of Water
Capture Runoff
Current Climate
1
Use Different Building Materials
2
3
Hotter and Drier
2
3
1
Hotter and Wetter
1
2
3
Benefit-Cost Analysis
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Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
metric to determine whether benefits > costs
Monetary values often used
Difficulty: what to do about nonmarket
benefits or uncertainties
Difficulty: requires much data and analysis
BCA Example:
Sea Walls in Kiribati
Net Present Value Calculation for Constructing Sea Walls Today for Case Study Islands
(3% rate of discount)
Present Value
of Damages
Present Value
of Seawalls
Built in 2001
Net Present
Value
(PV damages
minus PV costs)
A$13.9 million
A$6.6 million
A$0.97 million
A$5.7 million
A$5.6 million
A$2.67 million
A$1.13 million
A$1.5 million
Monetized Portion
of Damages
(2025 BG & SS)
Buariki-Naa
Bikenibeau
Land Area
What to Use
Conclusions
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Integration is important to at least identify
related impacts
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Analysis is desirable because there can be
surprises
Integration can also be useful for examining
total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities