Transcript The Steady State Economy and the Mission of the U.S. Fish and

Economic Growth as the
Limiting Factor
for Wildlife Conservation
Including Considerations of
Technological Progress
Compliments of Brian Czech
Based largely on:
Czech, B. 2000. Shoveling Fuel For A Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful
Spenders, And A Plan To Stop Them All. University of California Press,
Berkeley.
Czech, B., and P. R. Krausman. 2001. The Endangered Species Act: History,
Conservation Biology, and Public Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore, MD.
Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation.
Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
Czech, B., P. R. Krausman, and P. K. Devers. 2000. Economic associations among
causes of species endangerment in the United States. BioScience
50(7):593-601.
Czech, B. Economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation.
Under Review.
Economic Growth
• an increase in the production and
consumption of goods and services
• typically expressed in terms of GDP
• facilitated by increasing:
–population
–per capita consumption
The Theoretical
Framework
GNP
K
Natural capital
allocated to
wildlife
Natural capital
allocated to
human economy
Time
Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife
conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
PDF files for these
articles available
at The Wildlife
Society website:
www.wildlife.org.
(Follow links to
Wildlife Society
Bulletin.)
Some Empirical Evidence:
Causes of Species Endangerment
as a “Who’s Who”
of the American Economy
Endangerment Causes
Urbanization
Agriculture
Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs)
Recreation, tourism development
Pollution
Domestic livestock, ranching
247
205
160
148
143
136
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Causes (cont.)
Mineral, gas, oil extraction
Non-native species
Harvest
Modified fire regimes
Road construction/maintenance
Industrial development
134
115
101
83
83
81
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Making sense of the
Who’s Who with
Trophic Theory
Basic Population
Dynamics
Carrying Capacity Scenarios
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
K and r-selected Species
Economic Carrying Capacity
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
K and r-selected Economies
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
6000
1938
1935
1932
1929
American GNP, 1929-1997
8000
7000
K or r-selected?
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
But, for the sake of wildlife
conservation, it’s not
enough to hope we’re a
K-selected economy.
Wildlife Conservation and
Steady State Economy
To conserve wildlife...
K
...maintain steady state
economy sufficiently
below K.
Time
But what about
Technological
Progress?
Technological Progress
• Vernacular: invention, innovation
• Technical: increasing productive
efficiency resulting from invention
and innovation
Natural Capital Allocation Revisited
GNP
X natural capital allocable
Natural capital
allocated
to non-human
economy
KU
KT
Natural capital allocated
to human economy
Time
The Big Hope
X natural capital remains allocable
GNP
X/2 conserved
Economic growth with
technology level 2
KU
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The Great Debate:
Is There a Limit?
“Yes”
•
•
•
•
Physiocrats
Classical economists
Ecological economists
Ecologists
“No”
• Neoclassical
economists
• Corporations
• Politicians
Why would there
not be a limit?
• Substitutability of resources
• Increasing productive efficiency
• Increasing human capital
White Pine, “Big Wheel”
Substituting for white pine,
employing more efficient
technology.
Sitka Spruce,
Timbco 435 “Feller Buncher”
Why would there
be a limit?
• Carrying capacity
• Thermodynamics
• Trophic levels
Carrying Capacity
• Consumers
• Products
• Byproducts
Thermodynamics
• Fixed amount of matter
• Entropy
• Fixed amount of energy
Another look at trophic
levels, this time in light of
thermodynamics.
Clear to All
• Without technological progress,
GNP limited
• GNP growth faster than
technological progress = trouble
Unclear to Many
• Technological progress: raising the
bar or accelerating the approach?
• Does technological progress occur
without increased consumption?
Consider the Sources
• Research and development
• Corporate profit
• Economies of scale
One More Look at Allocation
GNP
X natural capital allocable
Natural capital
allocated
to non-human
economy
KU
KT
Natural capital allocated
to human economy
Time
Remember the Big Hope?
K
U
X natural capital remains allocable
GNP
X/2 conserved
Economic growth with
technology level 2
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The Apparent Reality
X/2 natural capital allocable KU
GNP
X/2 converted
Economic growth with
technology level 2
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
Red Herring Alert!
Red Herring Alert!
Red Herring Alert!
The “Information” Economy
But just ask 2 questions:
• What is the information
used for?
• How does one come to
afford the information?
Fallacy Buster
To say that an economy may
grow perpetually on a finite
land mass is to say that a
stable economy may occupy a
perpetually diminishing land
mass!
$
=
$
$
Real Questions
• What is the limit?
• How do we know when we’re
approaching the limit?
• What do we do to prevent
breaching the limit?
And yet we hear:
“Some people just don’t get it. There is
no conflict between economic growth
and environmental protection!”
Why do they persist?
(As described by Brian Czech in Shoveling Fuel for a
Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful
Spenders, and a Plan to Stop Them All. Published by
University of California Press, 2000)