Transcript Slaids 1 - mfa.gov.lv

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Economic aspects of
migration and remigration
Līga Menģelsone
Director General
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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EMIGRATION IN LATVIA AND THE OTHER BALTIC COUNTRIES:
CHALLENGES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Riga, 17 December 2012
KEY CHALLENGES
Demography
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KEY CHALLENGES
Inequality and disparities
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KEY CHALLENGES
Growth and welfare
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DEMOGRAPHY
Rapidly ageing population
Outflow of people – the labour force
Increased shortage of labour as of 2015
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OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Outflows to other EU country: > 6% of Latvian citizens reside in
other EU countries
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Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Post-enlargement migration: “Low” senders
In terms
of
numbers:
SL, EE,
LV, CZ,
HU
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Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Stock of CEE citizens recently arrived (<3 years) in another EU
MS, in 2011 compared to 2008 (age group 15-64), change in %
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Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Age distribution of recent intra-EU movers (<7 years) from CEE
countries, 2010
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Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Mobile workers from CEE are often (>30%) over-qualified for their
job…
Share of the
workers being
over-qualified
for their job,
by group of
citizenship
(2010), in %
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Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
The distribution of EU8 nationals in the EU15
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Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012
OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE
LABOUR FORCE
Unemployment rates
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Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012
DEMOGRAPHY
Negative impact on the Latvian economy,
social system and wellbeing of the people
Lack of skilled workers
Long-term unemployment (45%)
Mismatch of skills or expectations in respect to
the vacancies available
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INEQUALITY AND DISPARITIES
Latvia: the country with the regional
disparities within the country
Latvia: Member State of the EU – the union
with enormous inequalities and disparities
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REGIONAL DISPARITIES
Regional GDP per capita 1. variance,%, 2008
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
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Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012
REGIONAL DISPARITIES
Unemployment rate, 2011
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Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012
REGIONAL DISPARITIES
Population change in municipal areas 2006 - 2011. Over the past 5
years, the population has grown around Riga
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Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012
REGIONAL DISPARITIES
300
274
Latvia’s GDP is only 58% from the EU 27 average.
GDP per capita in 2011, EU27 = 100
250
200
150
131 129 127
126 125
100
50
0
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Source: Eurostat, 2012
120 118 116
108 107
101 99
92
84
83
82
80
77
73
67
66
65
62
58
49
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GROWTH AND WELFARE
Accompanying policies to support
development of the economy and rising
competitiveness of the country
EU: internal cohesion and level playing field
Latvia: immigration and remigration policy
In support to national aspirations
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EMPLOYERS’
CONFEDERATION OF
LATVIA
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EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION OF LATVIA
(LDDK)
 The largest employers’ organisation in Latvia
 Partner in socioeconomic negotiations with
Parliament, the Government and the Free Trade
Union Confederation of Latvia (LBAS)
 Unites 66 branch and regional employers’
organizations, as well as 96 enterprises that employ
over 50 people
 Members of the LDDK employ more than 37% of
employees in Latvia (~70% GDP)
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MEMBERS
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MISSION
To represent the interests of Latvian employers
for business competitiveness, the quality of work
and life
AREAS OF ACTIVITY
Protecting the interests of business people and
representing employers in social dialogue
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PRIORITIES
 Macroeconomic stabilisation
 Predictable tax policies
 Competitive business environment
 Accessibility and quality of human capital
 Effective public governance and structural reforms
 Sustainable social security system
 Strengthening of external economic relations
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