Transcript Slide 1

ROADMAP 2050
A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate Foundation is strictly prohibited
ROADMAP 2050 PARTNERS
KEY STAKEHOLDERS WERE INVOLVED BY PROVIDING INPUT AND
REVIEWING RESULTS
Core Working Group participants
Further outreach
Plus 40 more companies,
NGOs and research institutes
Utilities
Transmission
System
Operators
Manufacturers
NGOs
Siemens
WWF
THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARE SUSTAINABLE,
TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE
ECONOMY
AT LEAST 80% CO2 EMISSION
REDUCTION
1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve
2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline
3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)
SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & FUEL SHIFT GIVE OVERALL DEMAND
ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050
(EU-27 + Norway & Switzerland)
THREE SPECIFIC PATHWAYS MODELED INCLUDING BOTH GENERATION
AND GRID COSTS
40% RES
30% CCS
30% nuclear
60% RES
20% CCS
20% nuclear
Energy production mix over the year, TWh per week
80% RES
10% CCS
10% nuclear
RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTES TO CONSISTENT SUPPLY
COMBINING REGIONAL DEMAND CURVES REDUCES VOLATILITY
INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS
CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UP
CAPACITY
2050, GW
Transmission & generation capacity requirements
Pathways
DR, %
Baseline
0
Transmission
Back-up and balancing
RES curtailment1, %
Requirements on top of the baseline
80% RES
10% CCS
10% nuclear
60% RES
20% CCS
20% nuclear
40% RES
30% CCS
30% nuclear
13
0
3
20
2
0
2
20
1
0
2
20
2
13
ANNUAL CAPEX DEVELOPMENT
COST OF ELECTRICITY
LONG TERM EU27 GDP
DECARBONIZING THE ECONOMY SAVES MONEY