Transcript Slide 1

ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Long Term Perspective from the Eyes
of a Wall Street Analyst
Ian Weissman
Managing Director - Head of Lodging Research
[email protected]
212.446.9461
1
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Lodging Recovery: While RevPAR Growth Has Been Fairly Consistent…
RevPAR Growth (4 week avg)
11.0%
9.0%
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
1.0%
3/24/2012
3/3/2012
2/11/2012
1/21/2012
12/31/2011
12/10/2011
11/19/2011
10/29/2011
10/8/2011
9/17/2011
8/27/2011
8/6/2011
7/16/2011
6/25/2011
6/4/2011
5/14/2011
4/23/2011
4/2/2011
3/12/2011
2/19/2011
1/29/2011
-1.0%
2
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
…Its Been A Roller Coaster Ride for Investors
Lodging Index - Daily Returns
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
3/27/2012
3/13/2012
2/28/2012
2/14/2012
1/31/2012
1/17/2012
12/20/2011
1/3/2012
12/6/2011
11/22/2011
11/8/2011
10/25/2011
10/11/2011
9/27/2011
9/13/2011
8/30/2011
8/16/2011
8/2/2011
7/19/2011
6/21/2011
7/5/2011
5/24/2011
6/7/2011
5/10/2011
4/26/2011
4/12/2011
3/29/2011
3/15/2011
2/15/2011
3/1/2011
1/18/2011
2/1/2011
1/4/2011
Concerns over
US ‘Double Dip’
during late fall ‘11
sent lodging
stocks into a
tailspin, down
~30-40% since
peaking Feb
’11—Wall Street
Pegged
Probability at
more than 50%.
3
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Bullish on Lodging:
1. Even in low growth environment, fundamental story works: 1) ISI
forecasting 2.5% GDP in ‘12; 2) demand growth still solid as corporate
profitability remains strong; and 3) supply in check (1%);
1. ISI proprietary Hotel RevPAR model forecasts growth +5.5%-7.5% in ’12 for the Gateway
Cities
2. Recent economic data has been better than expected: (Manufacturing
PMI, Employment, Claims, and Consumer Spending) – Last 27 weeks has
been strong
3. Flurry of hotel deals in 2011 further highlight the spread between public and
private valuations;
1. significant capital remains on the sidelines—expect further consolidation
4. Public valuations remain compelling relative to other asset classes: 10%
discount to NAV
4
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Despite YTD Outperformance, Upside Left in Lodging Stocks
‘12 YTD Returns: Lodging Outperforms
20%
18%
17%
16%
14%
12%
11%
10%
8%
8%
Forecasted Returns: Upside Left in Lodging
6%
20%
4%
2%
0%
NASDAQ
Lodging
S&P 500
REITs
Forecasted Total Returns ('12)
YTD '12 Returns
16%
18%
16%
17%
14%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
2%
1%
0%
5
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
My Agenda:
Econ 101:

ISI Economists Bullish on US Economy – Economic Data
Continues to Surprise to the Upside

Potential Roadblocks to the Recovery
 Oil Price
 Deficit
 Europe
 China
Real Estate:




How Far Off of Peak
Hottest Markets
Deals, deals and more deals
CMBS
Q&A: Softballs Please!
6
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
GDP is Important…But You Need To Dig Deeper
10%
15%
8%
6%
5%
US Real GDP
4%
0%
2%
0%
-5%
-2%
-10%
-4%
-15%
-6%
-20%
-8%
-10%
-25%
GDP
US RevPAR Growth (lagged 2 Quarters)
10%
Historically there
has been a strong
correlation
between US
economic growth
(GDP) and
RevPAR
performance,
however at ISI—
we try and dig a
little deeper
RevPAR
7
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Job Growth #1 Variable to a Healthy US Economy:
US created 1.8mn jobs in ‘11 and ISI expects ~2mn for FY12
2012 Chg: +2351k
400
ISI is forecasting
another 2mn jobs to
be added to the US
economy in 2012,
taking the
unemployment rate
down to 8%
200
0
-200
Mthly Change
-400
Rolling 3 Mth Avg.
-600
-800
Feb-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
-1000
Feb-09
Monthly Chg Payroll E,mployment (000s)
600
8
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
US Unemployment Claims Fall to 4 Year Low
700700
U.S.
INITIAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS
U.S.
INITIAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS
4 Wk.Avg.
4 Wk.Avg.
Mar Mar
31 31
362 362
650
650
600
600
Claims is considered among
the strongest indicators for
where we are in the
economy.
550
550
Many skeptics out there who
believe labor market is not
healing…this would prove
otherwise
500
500
450
400450
350400
300
350
Suggests 4% 1Q12 GDP
250
300
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
250
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
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ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Very Strong Correlation Between Job and ADR Growth
2%
10%
8%
1%
6%
0%
0%
-2%
-1%
-4%
-1%
-6%
-8%
-2%
-10%
-2%
With job growth of
2mn in ‘12 we
would not be
surprised if ADR
growth averaged
4%-5% in ‘12 vs.
the 3.5% recorded
in 2011
-12%
1Q91
4Q91
3Q92
2Q93
1Q94
4Q94
3Q95
2Q96
1Q97
4Q97
3Q98
2Q99
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
4Q09
3Q10
2Q11
1Q12
4Q12E
Qtrly Job Growth
2%
Y/Y ADR Growth
4%
1%
Qtrly Job Growth
Y/Y ADR Growth
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ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Company Profits Are Up – Good For Lodging
Corporate Profitability
has surged to a record
high of $2 trillion
While growth is
expected to slow, ISI
economists expects
corporate profits to
remain robust.
11
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
US Consumer Remains Healthy: Consumer Spending Well Above ‘08 Peak
U.S. NOMINAL CONSUMER SPENDING
U.S. NOMINAL
CONSUMER SPENDING
Feb $11.01
Feb $11.01
11.5
11.5
Annualized growth rate in
consumer spending is
nearly 4.5% since the ‘08
bottom to $11 trillion
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.5
10.0
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
8.5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
U.S. REAL CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumer Spending
in
2012
Likely to Grow +2.0%
Actual
2012:1Q
1.3%
8
Forecast
2012:4Q 2.1%
U.S. REAL CONSUMER SPENDING Y/Y %
2012:1Q 1.3% e
6
4
Forecast
2012:4Q 2.1%
2
0
-2
-4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Based on lagged
effects of the
improvement in
house prices and
increases in
consumer
sentiment and
stock prices, ISI’s
forecast is for
Real Consumer
spending to
accelerate to
+2.0% Y/Y in
2012.
13
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
First Increase in Consumer Debt: Another Sign that Consumers Are Opening their Wallets
1Q12: Consumer
debt is up for the
first time since 2008
– another sign that
consumers are
opening up their
wallets and spending
14
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Housing: Starts
Likely to Turn Up in 2012
U.S. HOUSING STARTS 3 Mo.Avg.
Actual
Dec 0.657
U.S. HOUSING STARTS 3 Mo.Avg.
Forecast
0.771
ActualJunDec
0.657
2.2
Forecast
2.2
2.0
While US
economic recovery
has been in full
swing for almost 2
years, Housing has
lagged…until now.
Jun 0.771
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
Great news for
labor
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
Will help to
contribute to GDP
.4
.6
.2
88
.4
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
.2
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
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ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
ISI Cos Surveys Hit 5-Year High
Hurricane
Katrina
Latest Click 51.4
2011 Growth
Problem
Iraq War
2010 Growth
Problem
ISI’s proprietary
surveys of over 320
companies suggest
that business is very
good.
Over 50 suggest
economic
expansion…no longer
just a recovery
16
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
ISI Airline Survey Continues to Surge- Another Strong Sign for ADR Growth
70
10%
8%
50
4%
2%
40
0%
30
-2%
-4%
20
TTM Y/Y Change in ADR
6%
-6%
10
-8%
0
-10%
2Q99
4Q99
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
2Q10
4Q10
2Q11
4Q11
ISI Airling Survey Index
60
ISI Airlines Survey
Y/Y Chg in ADR
17
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
ISI Economists Remain Bullish on US Economy
‘12 GDP: 2.5% (bias to the upside)
‘12 Job Growth: ~2mn jobs
‘12 Unemployment Rate: 8%
18
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
ISI Forecast: Expecting RevPAR to Top 7% in ‘12 Across Gateway Cities
ISI Hotel Rev. Forecasting Model: Luxury/Upper Upscale
30.0
20.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
1Q88
4Q88
3Q89
2Q90
1Q91
4Q91
3Q92
2Q93
1Q94
4Q94
3Q95
2Q96
1Q97
4Q97
3Q98
2Q99
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
4Q09
3Q10
2Q11
1Q12
4Q12
3Q13
US Luxury RevPAR
10.0
Y/Y % Actual
Y/Y % Estimate
19
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Feeling Pretty Good!!!!!!
20
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Potential Roadblocks to US Lodging
Recovery
21
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Catalysts for Double-Dip Concerns
Our best guess is continued growth of +2.5% in 2012. However, here’s the
list of catalysts for double-dip concerns in 2011. The list for 2012 is not
inconsequential.
2011
• US budget impasse
• US debt downgrade
.
2012
• Oil
.
prices (Israel/Iran)
• Oil prices (Arab Spring)
• Deficit and fiscal drag
• Inflation accelerating
• Eurozone financial crisis/recession
• Central bank tightenings (ECB, etc)
• China slowdown
• Eurozone financial crisis
• Japan disasters/supply-chain disruptions
• US elections (and foreign)
• US storms, etc
• End of QE2
22
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
1) Rising Gasoline Prices Has ISI Economists Concerned…
$123 Brent Suggests a Record
U.S. RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE (AAA)
Mar 25 $3.90
4.5
Expect $4.25 Gasoline this
Summer
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
23
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
1) Comparing RevPAR Performance and Oil Prices (Brent)
20%
$160
15%
$140
10%
$120
-5%
$80
-10%
$60
-15%
$40
-20%
Brent Oil Prices
$100
0%
$20
-25%
-30%
$0
Jun-89
Dec-89
Jun-90
Dec-90
Jun-91
Dec-91
Jun-92
Dec-92
Jun-93
Dec-93
Jun-94
Dec-94
Jun-95
Dec-95
Jun-96
Dec-96
Jun-97
Dec-97
Jun-98
Dec-98
Jun-99
Dec-99
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
RevPAR Growth
5%
No clear thesis on
rising oil prices and
impact on
fundamentals...
However,, spikes
in oil pressure
RevPAR
performance and
operating margins
RevPAR
What can we
expect in ‘12?
Oil
24
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
2) Debt, debt and more debt: Fiscal Drag Will Remain an Issue
U.S. FEDERAL BUDGET (FISCAL YEAR)
U.S.
2012
1H FEDERAL
-$1.4t BUDGET
2012
.4
-1.4
It’s bad enough that we’ve
already had 3 years with the
federal deficit averaging a
huge -$1.3t. Now on top of
that, the deficit for 1H of
FY2012 is running at a -$1.4t
annual
rate.
This
is
particularly troubling for the
3rd year of a recovery.
.2
0.0
-.2
-.4
-.6
-.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
25
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
2) Global Growth is Slowing: Emerging Markets:
EMERGING ECONMIES REAL GDP
2011:3Q 5.7% e
Y/Y %
10
8
Emerging Market GDP
Likely to Slow to 4% in
2012 from a high of 8%
in ‘10
6
4
2
0
-2
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
26
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
2) Global Growth: China is Slowing; Concerns Over ‘Hard Landing’
Soft Landing Level
US economy will
NOT be spared from
a potential ‘Hard
Landing’ in China
Hard Landing Level
27
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
2) Global Growth: Developed Countries--If Europe Sneezes
Will the US Could Catch a Cold?
Global Growth is Slowing; Spain and Italy Facing Recession
DEVELOPED ECONMIES REAL GDP
2011:3Q 1.1% e
6
Y/Y %
ISI Expects Global
GDP growth to slow to
+0.4%, while Italy is
likely to fall into a
recession at -2% in ’12
4
2
0
European recession
will weigh on US
economy—question
remains, by how
much?
-2
-4
-6
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
28
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
European GDP Forecasts for ‘12:
Germany:
France:
UK:
Italy:
Spain:
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.0%
ISI economists are
calling for a recession
across most of Europe,
however, developed
countries up North will
fare better than their
Southern EU neighbors
29
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Europe RevPAR Data: Slipped into Negative Territory in ‘12
London
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Feb-09
Europe Avg.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12
-20%
-30%
Milan
-40%
60%
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
Feb-09
-50%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Feb-09
Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12
30
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Real Estate Overview: Asset Values – Where
are We Now
31
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Off to a slow start in ‘12, but most experts expect an active 2nd half ‘12
$60,000
$285,000
$53,727
$265,000
$259,088
$50,000
$40,000
$225,000
$203,676
$30,000
$205,000
$25,129
$21,436
$195,411 $185,000
$20,000
$15,017
$10,000
$165,000
$7,298
$5,737
$2,219
$2,054
$0
$145,000
$/Key
Transaction Volume (m)
$245,000
Of the $15bn+ of
full-service hotels
which sold last
year, REITs
accounted for
nearly 40% of the
capital
$125,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ttl Volume
2009
2010
2011
2012
$/Key
32
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Capital Continues to Concentrate in Tier I Cities; Investors Still Worried
About Moving Further Out on the Risk Curve for Higher Yield—That
Will Change
100%
% of Hotel Sales by Tier
90%
80%
39%
42%
70%
60%
50%
46%
34%
42%
31%
17%
19%
20%
14%
8%
10%
15%
12%
1%
13%
40%
30%
16%
51%
46%
40%
2005
2006
2007
51%
57%
61%
64%
2008
2009
2010
2011
70%
10%
0%
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
2012
Top 10 Most Active Markets in ‘11
City
New York, NY
Volume (m)
$4,487
$/Key
$483,871
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
Miami, FL
Los Angeles, CA
Chicago, IL
Washington, DC
Denver, CO
$1,468
$1,179
$806
$767
$668
$461
$370
$312,004
$260,731
$222,782
$246,916
$304,792
$373,252
$221,896
Dallas, TX
Boston, MA
Total/Wtd Avg.:
$333
$298
$10,837
$567,008
$274,674
$372,231
33
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Trouble in NYC and DC? Not in the Minds of “Smart Capital”
$583,203
$600,000
Transaction Volume (m)
$4,000
$550,000
$3,500
$498,113
$3,000
$457,347
$500,000
$2,500
$450,000
$2,000
$400,000
$1,500
$1,000
$355,721
$351,494
$/Key
$4,500
$350,000
$300,000
$500
$0
In NYC – Pricing remains 20% off
of ‘06 Peak, however, we would not
be surprised if we exceed ‘11 peak
this year (Plaza Hotel trading for
$1.4mn/key to India conglomerate)
$250,000
$1,600
$429,254 $475,000
$1,400
$425,000
$1,200
$352,384
$341,725
$1,000
$800
$600
$325,000
$275,000
$235,787
Despite talk of weak fundamentals
in DC, institutional capital continues
to pay up for high quality assets
$225,000
$400
$200
$375,000
$/key
Transaction Volume (m)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$175,000
$133,929
$0
$125,000
$75,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
34
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Sunny Cal is Where the $ Migrates—Supported by Strong Fundamentals
$1,000
$350,000
$318,938
$300,000
$239,012
$800
$250,000
$700
$600
$500
$200,000
$146,459
$400
$150,000
$300
$100,000
$200
$/Key
Transaction Volume (m)
$900
West LA
West Coast Remains in
High Demand for
Investors – West LA
and San Francisco in
particular
$50,000
$100
$0
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$1,600
$1,400
$277,990
$250,000
$1,000
$200,000
$800
$600
$400
$300,000
$241,138
$1,200
$150,000
$128,530
$100,000
$/Key
Transaction Volume (m)
$350,000
$327,709
San
Francisco
$50,000
$200
$0
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
35
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
CMBS Issuance: Has Placed a Lid on Deal Volumes…
$35,000
Hotel (CMBS) Debt Issued (in Millions)
$30,833
$30,000
$26,343
$25,000
$20,000
$15,848
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
$27
$71
$299 $933
'00
'01
'02
'03
$3,277
$2,034
'04
$803
'05
'06
'07
'08
$4,468
Hotel CMBS
issuance is way off
of ‘06-’07 peaks –
with few expecting
a near term
resurgence
$3
'09
'10
'11
36
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
CMBS Hotel Maturities (M)
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$14,069
$11,910
$11,348
$11,670
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$3,240 $2,863
$2,000
$972
$444 $319
$1,059
$0
Hotel CMBS Maturies
$69
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
6.4%
6.2%
6.0%
5.8%
5.6%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
Wtd. Avg. Interest Rate on CMBS
…While CMBS Debt Maturities in ‘12, Expected to Place a Lid on Valuations
Wtd. Avg. Rate
37
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Good News is that nearly 80% of the CMBS Loans Due this Year are
Performing…that Figure Continues to Expand as Banks Extend Loans
100%
% of Outstanding CMBS Loans
90%
13%
23%
39%
80%
17%
35%
27%
32%
4%
2%
96%
98%
2020
2021
37%
70%
60%
50%
40%
87%
77%
30%
61%
65%
2013
2014
83%
73%
68%
63%
2017
2018
2019
20%
10%
0%
2012
2015
2016
Performing
Distressed
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ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
A Perspective on the Future:
“If you come to a fork in the road….take it”
-Yogi Berra
39
ISI International Strategy & Investment Group, Inc.
Analyst Certification and Disclosures
ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The views expressed in this Report accurately reflect the personal views of those preparing the Report about any and all of the subjects or issuers
referenced in this Report. No part of the compensation of any person involved in the preparation of this Report was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by research analysts in this Report.
DISCLOSURE: Neither ISI nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject companies referenced in the Report. No
person(s) responsible for preparing this Report or a member of his/her household serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the subject companies.
No person(s) preparing this report or a member of his/her household have a financial interest in the subject companies of this Report. At various times, the employees
and owners of ISI, other than those preparing this Report, may transact in the securities discussed in this Report. Neither ISI nor its affiliates have any investment banking
or market making operations. No person(s) preparing this research Report has received non-investment banking compensation form the subject company in the past 12
months. ISI does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this research Report and has received non-investment banking compensation in the past 12
months.
DISCLAIMER: This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but neither ISI nor its affiliates guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Assumptions,
opinions and recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, and ISI is not obligated to update the information contained herein. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
ISI RATING SYSTEM: Based on stock's 12-month risk adjusted total return; ETR = total expected return (stock price appreciation/depreciation + dividend yield)
Buy Low Risk ETR
>+10%
Hold Low Risk ETR
0% to +10%
Sell Low Risk ETR
<0%
Buy Medium Risk ETR
>+15%
Hold Medium Risk ETR
-5% to +15%
Sell Medium Risk ETR
<-5%
Buy High Risk ETR
>+20%
Hold High Risk ETR
-10% to +20%
Sell High Risk ETR
<-10%
RISK RATING:
30% based on stock price volatility, 30% on EPS volatility, 30% on debt rating & 10% on mkt cap
ISI has assigned a rating of BUY to 45% of the securities rated as of 12/31/11.
ISI has assigned a rating of HOLD to 51% of the securities rated as of 12/31/11.
ISI has assigned a rating of SELL to 4% of the securities rated as of 12/31/11.
Due to rounding the above numbers may add up to more/less than 100%.
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