Transcript LSEO and welfare to work in London

Work Programme and where
next for welfare to work?
Kris Krasnowski
Director for London, Inclusion
[email protected]
Rich source of information and data on
London labour market @ City, Subregional and borough level.
Quarterly summary of trends and Annual
London Story (due on 10 December)
Visit us @ http://lseo.org.uk/
Work Programme in London
What to expect on 27th
November...
Diminishing GDP forecasts...
2010 Forecast
2012 forecast
difference
4
3
2
1
2.9
2.6
2.1
2
0.8
0.8
2011
2012
0
2013
-1
-2
-0.9
-1.3
-1.8
-3
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility
...and job outcomes that follow
GDP...
Annual change in seasonally adjusted rate
GDP annual change IHYR
40.0%
0.06
30.0%
0.04
20.0%
0.02
10.0%
0
0.0%
-0.02
-10.0%
-0.04
-20.0%
-30.0%
-0.06
-40.0%
-0.08
Jun-07
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08
Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09
Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
Source: Inclusion. Analysis of DWP and ONS data
Should lead to lower
performance...Stupid!
Expectation that economic malaise will
impact on Work Programme job outcomes
Suggests greater agility required in
modelling to compensate for impact of
changing GDP on performance
Will Work Programme step up to the
challenge of vLTU or inactive?
Benefit claimants by client group (feb 2012)
250,000
192,840
200,000
150,000
123,200
100,000
53,270
51,820
50,000
41,050
28,460
10,810
19,550
24,900
10,810
35,920
29,700
17,320
14,500
3,530
0
up to 6 months
6 months up to 1 year
job seeker
1 year and up to 2 years 2 years and up to 5 years
ESA and incapacity benefits
lone parent
5 years and over
Debatable...
Tougher labour market pushes most
disadvantaged further back...
Bread and butter for primes has always
been JSA – are existing models capable?
WCA potentially undermining
interventions?
Still issues with voluntary referrals via
random assignment
Where next for welfare to work?
Competition on performance or price?
Local vs. Nationally designed
programmes?
UC and in-work conditionality is a
game changer...
...We are advocating an extension of
mutual obligations to low paid/in-work
claimants
 Conditions for a better jobs programme?
Join the LSEO for a Work
Programme debate
December 2012
Date and venue TBC
Visit: http://lseo.org.uk/