Transcript PSMT Retreat

Social Protection:
Costing &
Financing SP
targets
SPIAC-B
New York, 3 February 2015
Anne Drouin,
Social Protection Department
International Labour Organization
2 fundamental questions:
What matters when assessing the cost of
SP Targets and monitoring their progress?
1)Towards Universal Coverage – No one is left out
What are the needs for SP ?
Is everyone covered in case of loss of income and
insufficient means?
Does everyone have access to health care ?
2)Towards Adequate Social protection
– Is SP sufficient to meet people’s needs ?
 Taking into account need to scale up resources
to pay for benefits of all kinds and to invest into
developing the national and local SP delivery
system - Progressive or Immediate realization?
2
Building
Social
Security
Systems
for a
Century
Developing Countries Increasing Social Protection
Increase in public social protection expenditure ratios (%GDP), selected middle-income
countries, 2000-latest year
Selected Countries, 2011
Source: ILO World Social Protection Report 2014-15
Expansion of Cash Transfers
in Middle and Low Income Countries
.
Child and family benefits
Argentina, China, Mongolia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger,
Senegal, South Africa
Cash transfers with human
development focus
Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana,
Honduras, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya, Malawi, Mexico,
Mongolia, Nicaragua, Philippines, Tanzania
Household minimum
support income
Chile, China, Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia
Public employment
programmes
Argentina, Benin, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, India,
Indonesia, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania
Maternity protection
Argentina, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ghana, India, Indonesia,
Jordan, South Africa
How older poor spend
Argentina, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil,
Cabo cash
pension
Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, India, Kyrgyzstan, Lesotho,
transfer
Mauritius, Moldova, Namibia, Nepal, Panama, Peru, Samoa,
Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand,
Vietnam
Social pensions

Health coverage expanded
Argentina, Brazil, Burundi, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia,
Ghana, Lao PDR, Indonesia, Mexico, Morocco, Thailand,
Rwanda
Unemployment protection
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Vietnam
Universal Social Protection: Mixed approaches
Combining Non-contributory SP Floors and
Contributory Systems
F
How to better engage with other
government ministries beyond Ministry of Labour?
100 Countries Reducing Universal Food and Fuel Subsidies
sometimes targeted safety nets to the poor as compensation
-- insufficient, punishing “middle classes”
Fuel Subsidies in %GDP selected countries, 2012 or latest
- Higher food and transport costs: Less household income
- Higher energy costs – Negative impact on economic activity, employment,
domestic demand
Social protection is an investment in people
Source: ILO, World Social Protection Report 2014-15
Is Universal Social Protection Affordable in
Developing Countries?
Cost of universal pension coverage
65+, National poverty line (% of GDP)
Source: ILO 2014, Geneva
FINANCING SOCIAL PROTECTION
Fiscal policy space options exist
even in the poorest countries
1) Increasing social insurance coverage for self-financed
contributory benefits for those who can afford their social
protection
2) Re-allocating public expenditures (eg subsidies)
3) Better taxation systems  increasing central tax revenues
4) Increased aid and central budget transfers to support national
priorities for sustainable state capacities … especially in fragile states
requiring kicking off SP institutions
5) Fighting illicit financial flows
6) Tapping into fiscal and foreign exchange reserves
7) Debt restructuring to allow investment into SP bringing back
economic and fiscal returns
8) Adopting a more accommodative macroeconomic framework
Fiscal Space Strategies for Social Protection:
Country Examples
Source: ILO, World Social Protection Report 2014-15
ILO Social Protection Floor Cost Calculator
Welcome to the
Social Protection Floor Cost Calculator!
 Selection of countries
 Selection of SPF Income Security & In-kind
Benefits
o
Children
o
Youth Unemployed - PWP’s
o
Women & Maternity
o
HIV/AIDS victims
o
Disabled persons
o
Elderly
 Coverage Definition
 Universal
 Targeted
 Benefit Adequacy Definition
 National Poverty Line
 Other ref.
12
ILO Social Protection Floor Cost Calculator
An example
SPF Benefits for Bangladesh
(% of GDP)
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Old Age
Children
Disabled
Maternity
Pregnant
Orphans
13
Thank you