Transcript Document

RURAL DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts (in 10 minutes . . )
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
November 6, 2014
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape:
–
Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
8. Rural manufacturing provides the most jobs in the rural
goods-producing sectors
9. The size and structure of Manitoba’s non-metro economy:
–
Population vs. Employment vs. GDP
10. From a short-distance society to an open society  hence, a
focus on “regions” for development
(and “rural regional” economic development policy is different than “metro regional” economic
development policy)
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1. The increasing value of human time
Schultz, T. W. (1972) “The Increasing Economic Value of Human Time.” American
Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 54, No. 5 (December), pp. 843 – 850.
• Good news: our real wage is going up.
• Thus, incentive for firms to substitute machines for labour.
• Good news: each of us has a bigger / more efficient machine with
which to work.
• Bad news: rural Manitoba needs fewer and fewer workers to ship more
and more goods.
• The rural problematique: rural communities need to find new goods or
services to export in order to maintain their workforce and to keep
their population.
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1. Increasing value of human time
2. Rural development is getting harder
• Manitoba is approaching a labour market shortage.
–
Manitoba will soon have fewer potential labour market
entrants (10 to 19 years of age) for each potential labour
market leaver (55 to 64 years of age).
• Ten census divisions (and Winnipeg is one of them) out of 23
census divisions now have fewer individuals 10 to 19
years of age than individuals 55 to 64 years of age.
–
But if “rural development” means growing the wellbeing per person, rather than growing the number of
residents, then maybe rural development is not getting
harder.
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1. Increasing value of human time
2. Rural development is getting harder
3. Rural Manitoba is growing
• Manitoba’s non-metro population has grown in
each year since 1996.
– Rural Manitoba is not declining.
• But -- the rural share tends to decline over time
due to:
– Rural growing more slowly; and due to
– Successful rural development -- which has
caused some rural areas to be reclassified as
urban.
• and, rural Manitoba is not growing everywhere.
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1. Increasing value of human time
2. Rural development is getting harder
3. Rural Manitoba is growing
4. Some rural communities are attracting
immigrants
• Four census divisions (outside Winnipeg) grew
their population in one year (2013) by 0.5% or
more due to immigrant arrivals.
• In 2011, 25 communities reported recent
immigrants being 2.5% or more of population (i.e.
more than 0.5% per year for previous 5 years).
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
5. Population with an Aboriginal Identity
•
•
•
At present, 20% of individuals entering the labour
force have an Aboriginal Identity.
20 years from now, 29% of the individuals entering
the labour force will have an Aboriginal Identity.
60% are in Manitoba schools; 40% are in schools on reserves.
Over one-half of the population in Manitoba’s four
northern census divisions have an Aboriginal
Identity.
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
6. Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
From 2007 to 2012,
among 22 census divisions outside Winnipeg,
• 3 gained (19 lost) population aged 20-24 years in 2012
• 4 gained (18 lost) population aged 25-29 years in 2012
• 9 gained (13 lost) population aged 30-34 years in 2012
– i.e. rural youth are not coming back, in general
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
7. Landscape vs people-scape
• Landscape looks “agricultural” (or “forestry”) when
you fly over.
• However, a minority of rural people are involved in
agriculture or forestry.
– Farmer minority in rural in 1971; less than 20% now
• The landscape does not predict the livelihoods of the
population.
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape:
–
Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
8. Rural manufacturing provides the most
jobs in the rural goods-producing sectors
– More rural manufacturing jobs than rural
agricultural jobs
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
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Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape: Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
8. Rural manufacturing provides the most jobs in the rural
goods-producing sectors
9. The size and structure of Manitoba’s non-metro economy:
• SIZE: population vs. employment vs. GDP
–
–
–
Non-metro =
Non-metro =
Non-metro =
40% of population
34% of employment
35% of (approximate) GDP
• STRUCTURE BY SECTOR
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
24
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape: Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
Rural manufacturing provides the most jobs in the rural goods-producing sectors
The size and structure of Manitoba’s non-metro economy:
• SIZE: population vs. employment vs. GDP
–
Non-metro =
40% of population
–
Non-metro =
34% of population
–
Non-metro =
35% of (approximate) GDP
• STRUCTURE BY SECTOR
Ranking of non-metro sectors by:
Employment
(approximate) GDP
#1 Health & social assistance #1 Wholesale & retail trade
#2 Wholesale & retail trade
#2 Manufacturing
#3 Manufacturing
#3 Forestry/mining/oil/gas
#4 Agriculture (on farms)
#4 Health & social assistance
#12 Forestry/mining/oil/gas
#5 Agriculture (on farms)
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
25
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape: Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
Rural manufacturing provides the most jobs in the rural goods-producing sectors
9. The size and structure of Manitoba’s non-metro economy:
–
Population vs. Employment vs. GDP
10. From a short-distance society to an open society
 hence, a focus on “regions” for development
 and “rural regional” economic development policy is different than “metro regional”
economic development policy
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
31
• We have moved from a community-centric rural society to an “open”
society where we all drive in different directions for work, for
education, for recreation and for entertainment.
• What are the implications of functional economic areas being larger
than the “community”?
• Some implications, to me,
•
•
Less focus on community “economic” development (because of spillovers with
neighbouring communities); and
More focus on regional “economic” development
•
•
Thus, for economic development, a move from “rural community” development to
“rural regional” development
•
•
See, in particular, Partridge, Mark D. and M. Rose Olfert. (2011) “The Winners’ Choice: Sustainable Economic Strategies for Successful 21 st-Century
Regions.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Vol. 33, No. 2 (Summer), pp. 143-178.
Importantly, “rural regional” economic development differs from “metro regional”
economic development, by definition of “rural”
•
•
to quote “Red Green” – “We are all in this together, I’m pullin’ for yer.”
See Reimer, Bill and Ray D. Bollman. (2010) “Understanding Rural Canada: Implications for Rural Development Policy and Rural Planning Policy.” Chapter 1
in David J.A. Douglas (ed.) Rural Planning and Development in Canada. (Toronto: Nelson Education Ltd.)
For various delineations of functional economic regions in Manitoba, see
•
•
•
Stabler, Jack and Richard C. Rounds. (1997) “Commuting and Rural Employment on the Canadian Prairies.” Chapter 13 in Ray D. Bollman and John M
Bryden (ed.) International Perspectives on Rural Employment (Wallingford: CAB International and Brandon: Brandon University for the Canadian Rural
Restructuring Foundation), pp. 193 – 204.
Munro, Anne, Alessandro Alasia and Ray D. Bollman. (2011) “Self-contained labour areas: A proposed delineation and classification by degree of rurality.”
Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 8, No. 8 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olccel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng).
Ashton, Bill, Ray D. Bollman and Wayne Kelly. (2013) Identifying and explaining self-contained labour areas in rural Manitoba. Paper prepared for
Provincial-Municipal Support Services, Manitoba Department of Local Government, April 25.
(http://www.gov.mb.ca/ia/muniamalg/pdf/rdi_identifying.pdf#page=3)
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
32
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Increasing value of human time
Rural development is getting harder
Rural Manitoba is growing
Some rural communities are attracting immigrants
Population with an Aboriginal Identity: 17% in Manitoba
Whither rural youth? Do they come back?
Landscape vs people-scape:
–
Farmer minority in rural Manitoba in 1971
8. Rural manufacturing provides the most jobs in the rural
goods-producing sectors
9. The size and structure of Manitoba’s non-metro economy:
–
Population vs. Employment vs. GDP
10. From a short-distance society to an open society  hence, a
focus on “regions” for development
(and “rural regional” economic development policy is different than “metro regional” economic
development” policy)
Rural Works! A Policy Think Tank– November 6, 2014
37
RURAL DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE
Rural Works: Thank You
Rural Manitoba: 10 Facts (in 10 minutes . . )
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
November 6, 2014
Questions / Discussion