Влияние экспорта высокотехнологичного

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Transcript Влияние экспорта высокотехнологичного

Institute for Financial Studies
Impact of stimulation of high technology machine
building on the Russian economy development
6th International Conference on High Technology and Basic
Research
October 16-18, 2008, St. Petersburg
Why this topic is urgent
 There is a need for a shift from energy and feedstock to
investment and innovation type of the economy
development.
 A new source of economic development is needed.
 There is enough finance that has been taken away from the
energy industry and parked in state-owned funds.
 A mechanism to transform financial resources into
investments should be worked out and utilized.
2
Basic hypothesis
Goods must be recognized competitive
in the international market
=
Goods must be recognized competitive
in the domestic market
3
Competitiveness criteria
 Exports in 1992-1998 and 1999-2007.
 Export capability of high technology
machine building enterprises after 2010
(prospective product samples).
4
Competitive industries of the high technology
machine-building complex
High technology machine-building complex
Defense industry
PAK FA, Su-30MK, MiG-29OVT
АТП
VVER-1500, PAES power plants
Aerospace sector of the space and rocket industry
‘Angara’ space launching vehicle
Automotive industry
Toyota Camry, Renault (В and С),
Fiat Ducato
High technology
machine-building
complex
exports growth
of $4-5 billion
per annum
Civil aviation
SSJ, MS-21
5
Production and investment process model
Creation of an informational and analytical database
to explore inter-branch interactions
and evaluate the multiplicative effect
SEMMII
Investment ‘point’
(efficient industry)
Production unit
DEMMII
Multiplicative effect
Private capital use procedure
State investments
Investment unit
A mechanism of
return on state investments
6
SEMMII main results
GDP growth rates
Industry gross value added
Oil and gas
+
-
Coal
+
-
Electronics
+
-
Ferrous metals
-
+
Non-ferrous
metals
-
-
Chemical and
petrochemical
industries
-
+
Machine-building
-
+
High technology machine-building is the most efficient industry
7
Estimated output of foreign made cars in Russia in
2008-2015, million units
2015
1190
1127
2014
2013
1107
2012
1096
1065
2011
2010
890
2009
655
2008
467
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
8
Import substitution in the automotive industry
in 2008-2015
60.0
250
Localization
Import substitution
50.0
200
%
150
30.0
Billion rubles
40.0
100
20.0
50
10.0
0.0
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9
Import substitution in civil aviation in 20082015
80.0
60.0
Import substitution
(2006 prices)
70.0
50.0
60.0
Share of Russian airliners
in airlines’
purchase mix
50.0
40.0
30.0
%
Billion rubles
40.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10
Import substitution in power engineering in
2008-2015
120
35
Investments in energy industry
basic production funds
(left)
100
30
Import substitution
25
80
20
60
15
40
Billion rubles
Billion rubles
(right)
10
20
5
0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Additional growth in industry shares, pct (average in 2008-2015)
DEMMII-I, pct
Stimulated industries
Energy
Metallurgy
Chemical and
petrochemical
Energy
1.27
0.15
0.20
0.10
Metallurgy
0.02
1.14
0.06
0.19
Chemical and petrochemical
0.02
0.02
0.85
0.04
Machine-building
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.85
DEMMII-II, pct
Machinebuilding
Stimulated complexes industries
Chemical and
petrochemical
Machinebuilding
Energy
Metallurgy
Energy
1.28
0.19
0.21
0.19
Metallurgy
0.02
1.32
0.06
0.38
Chemical and petrochemical
0.02
0.02
0.93
0.07
Machine-building
0.02
0.55
0.25
3.49
12
Estimated GDP growth in 2008-2015
GDP, Ministry of
Economic Development and Trade
GDP, high technology
machine-building (DEMMII-I)
108.0%
107.5%
GDP, high technology
machine-building(DEMMII-II)
107.0%
106.5%
106.0%
105.5%
105.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13
Conclusions
 Overall industry development is only possible provided
high technology machine-building is stimulated.
 Exports enhancement only has a short-run positive impact
on the economy and will almost come to a zero effect by
2015.
 Substitution of imports in high-technology machine
building (and in metallurgical conversion) leads to stable
economic growth and diversified production.
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Main research findings
 All private investment sources have been consolidated and
systematized, their use procedure has been worked out to improve
investment attraction.
 The state should start injecting funds at the stage of upgrading and
extension of production facilities and construction of new objects. This
will accelerate formation of companies’ basic assets.
 A mechanism of overall evaluation of the multiplicative effect of high
technology machine-building exports enhancement on the industry has
been worked out.
 A mechanism of return on state investments to efficiently transform
state funds into investments, free part of the state money and allot it for
social problems has been worked out.
15
Thank you for attention!
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