2007 SOFI Studies

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Transcript 2007 SOFI Studies

The Millennium Project
July, 2007
 Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and
worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI.
 Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these
variables, with attention to national SOFIs.
 Establishing National SOFI Standards
 Systematizing Excel spreadsheet approach for
national SOFIs
Number of Responses
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Total Registrants
Answ ering at least 1
Qvuestion
0
50
100
Days
150
Employment
Other, 15
International
Organization, 3
Author , 5
Consultant, 18
Private Sector,
13
University, 29
NGO, 7
Government, 11
Region
Sub Sahara
Africa, 8.6
South East
Asia, 5
Pacific Asia,
5.7
Europe, 32.6
North America,
32
Latin America,
9.7
Middle East,
North Africa,
4.6
1.7
Variable
No
Import
1
4
Improved water source
9.08
2
8
Literacy rate, adult total
8.57
3
33
Corruption
8.54
4
18
School Enrollment, secondary
8.53
5
14
People Living in Extreme Poverty
8.51
6
20
Nuclear Proliferation
8.40
7
5
Carbon dioxide emissions
8.40
8
7
Percent unemployment
8.25
9
31
Energy consumption per GDP
8.18
10
11
Number of armed conflicts
8.18
Rank
Variable
Global
Import
Best
Worst
17
People in Countries that are Free or Partially Free
7.85
60
40
18
Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
7.84
0.9
1.5
19
GDP per capita
7.71
9000
5500
20
People voting in elections
7.69
70.0
50.0
21
Healthcare workers (Physicians, nurses, midwives, etc.)
7.67
7.0
4.0
22
Internet Users
7.54
600
260
23
Infant mortality
7.51
28.0
59.2
24
Forest Lands
7.43
32
25
25
Life expectancy at birth
7.15
75
65
26
Seats held by women in national parliaments
7.06
25
15
27
Number of refugees, asylum seekers, displaced persons
6.97
45.0
70.0
28
Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income
6.75
48
55
29
Percentage of global income concentrated in US, others
6.67
35.0
45.0
30
Homicides, intentional
6.64
5.0
15.0
31
Number of university courses on futures
6.62
250
60
32
Prevalence of HIV
6.59
1.0
3.0
Distribution of Responses
50
Number of Responses
40
30
W a t e r: Na t I m p o rt
Po p : Be s t
Un e m l : B e s t
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
Qu i n t i l e
Comparison of 2005 and 2007 SOFIs
1.20
1.10
1.00
2005
0.90
2007
0.80
0.70
0.60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2007 State of the Future Index
1.30
1.20
1.10
Base
1.00
UQ
Med
0.90
LQ
0.80
0.70
0.60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
 Intellectual
– Literacy, enrollments, R&D, Internet
 Health
– Life expectancy, infant mortality, physicians, HIV, food
 Wealth
– GDP/cap, unemployment, poverty, debt service
 Security
– Terrorist attacks, nuc proliferation, refugees
 Moral
– Corruption, freedom, voting, women in parliaments
 Physical
– Water, CO2, forests, temperature, renewables
Dashboard Experiments:
Getting Worse
Health, Intellect, and Wealth
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
Moral
0.2
0
Physical
Security
Health
Intellect
Wealth
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
Moral
0.2
0
Physical
Security
Health
Intellect
Wealth
10
Access to Improved Water Sources
9
Literacy Rate
Corruption
R&D Expenditures
Gl obal I mport
8
Food Availability
Internet Users
7
6
5
Companies that use ISO 14000
4
5
6
7
8
Na t i o n a l I m p o rt
9
10
Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
GDP per capita
Physicians per 1000 population
Nuclear Proliferation
Literacy rate
Number of infectious diseases
Population growth rate
Number of armed conflicts
People in Countries that are Free
R&D expenditures
Corruption
Improved water sources
Percent unemployment
School Enrollment, secondary
Renewable Energy
Energy consumption per GDP
Internet Users
Forest Lands
People voting in elections
Life expectancy at birth
Food availability
Infant mortality
Number of refugees
Homicides, intentional
Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income
Seats held by women in national parliaments
Prevalence of HIV
People Living in Extreme Poverty
Carbon dioxide emissions
People killed or injured in terrorist attacks
 Global
 National Comparison
 National Focus
Global SOFI
National Comparison
National Focus
Variables
Standard set
Based on global; same
for all countries.
Newly chosen for the
country
Historical data
Global data for last 2
decades
National data for last 2
decades
National data for last 2
decades
Best and Worst
estimates
Chosen for global
forecasts
Use global estimates
New values for the new
variables and the country
Weights
Chosen for global
forecasts
Use global estimates
New values for the new
variables and the country
TIA Developments
Chosen for global
forecasts
Use global developments
Developments important
to the future of the
country
TIA Development
Probabilities
Estimated for global TIA
developments
Use global TIA
development
probabilities
Global TIA values for
global developments;
new estimates for
country specific
developments
TIA Development
Impacts
Estimated for global TIA
developments and
variables
Use TIA development
impacts as they might
affect the country
Use TIA development
impacts as they might
affect the country






History of variables and extrapolation
SOFI Baseline
TIA Developments
Events and Variables
TIA (and macro)
SOFI with TIA
GDP per capita
(constant 2000 US$)
11000.0
10000.0
9000.0
Base
8000.0
UQ
MED
LQ
7000.0
Best
Worst
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
 Excel spreadsheets
 Reports
• Millennium Project Study of State of the Future Index
Variables and Their Use in Country to Country
Comparisons (the Real Time Delphi)
• Building the 2007 SOFI
• A Standardized Approach to Building National SOFIs
 Produce robust “enterprise level” software
 Review and utilize the "standard" for national SOFI's
 Construct and compare national SOFI’s
 Conduct an analysis designed to find whether country SOFI’s (weighted by
population) add up to the global SOFI.
 Experiments with other applications (e.g. corporate SOFI’s)
 Consider other dimensions (e.g. a measure of national innovativeness)
 Review and improve TIA judgments
 Construct on line data bases of variables and events to facilitate national and
other applications.