Transcript Document

Climate Change:
1% of your money or your life?
Mark Atherton – Greater Manchester Combined Authority
Todd Holden – Greater Manchester Growth Company
Greater Manchester Combined Authority
Greater Manchester (GM)
• UK’s largest & fastest growing regional economy: GVA £46bn
• 2.6 million residents and a workforce area of 7.2 million people
• Low carbon and environmental goods sector worth £5.4 billion,
which supports 37,000 jobs - projected to grow at more than 4% pa
Combined Authority (GMCA)
• AGMA established in 1986, GMCA formed in 2011
• 10 Local Authorities of Greater Manchester working at scale
• Established a Low Carbon Hub in 2012:
• A centre of excellence for achieving economic gain through
integrated delivery of carbon reduction.
• Harnesses the knowledge of our universities with the innovation
of our businesses and strong public governance of the GMCA
Delivery Approach
Themes and Sub-groups
Skills and Sector Development
Enable and Measure
Outcomes
Low Carbon Hub Priorities 2014
Buildings
• Deliver 5,500 domestic retrofit measures and
demonstration homes
• Facilitate work with the private sector to
encourage commercial buildings retrofit
• Drive the business case for public sector
buildings retrofit
Transport
• Review outputs from GM Carbon Metrics
Study and establish potential options to reduce
carbon emissions
• Utilise low carbon transport study outputs to
identify key strategic interventions
Natural Capital
• Act as ambassador for the natural
environment
• Identify key green and blue infrastructure and
biodiversity assets
• Quantify value of natural environment assets
• Develop an investment framework
Sector growth
Raise the profile of the LCEGS sector
Attract inwards investment from overseas
Enablers:
• Adaptation and resilience
• Behaviour change
• Communications
• Influencing GM policy and
strategy,
• Monitoring and metrics
• Funding / bid development
• Review of 12-15
implementation plan; update
to 2020 (building on wedges
approach)
Energy
• Explore GM Energy Enterprise
• Deliver priority heat network and smart
heat programmes, assess potential for
wind, geothermal and hydro
• Support research on energy
infrastructure planning and behaviour
change
SCP
• Help businesses to benefit from
transition to a more sustainable economy
• Encourage and enable choices which
reduce waste and maximise value of
waste streams
• Develop GM approach to sustainable
food
• Support public sector procurement to
maximise SCP gains
Deliver a sector development programme
Monitor impact of the social value procurement framework
Skills
Maximise job and training opportunities through the Green Deal programme
Identify skills demands required to deliver all sub-groups’ work programmes
Work with colleges and training providers to articulate needs for skills development in GM low carbon economy
Powering Greater Manchester:
how will we fuel our future?
Powering Greater Manchester:
how will we fuel our future?
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Outlines the 3 energy objectives
Explains the energy market
Summary of future energy demand, price and investment levels
needed
Picture of key UK and Greater Manchester Policy
Implications of Energy Policy in GM with respect to
• Business
• Households
• Jobs and growth
• Carbon emissions
Outlines 4 future scenarios and the implication of each constituent
Conclusion
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub
http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765
4 Possible Scenarios
Stagnation: Central Government energy policy remains insufficient, low
renewable energy deployment rate and slow and variable increases in energy
prices
Business as usual: Central Government energy policy remains insufficient, low
renewable energy deployment rate and fast and continuous increase in energy
prices
Utopia: Government policy especially Electricity Market Reform sends the
required market signal - high renewable energy deployment rate and slow and
variable increase in energy price rises
The Big Bang: Government policy especially Electricity Market Reform sends
the required market signals - high renewable energy deployment rate and fast
and continuous increase in energy prices
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub
http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765
Success of Government policy and GM
initiatives
Price of Energy
Low
Slow and variable increase in
energy prices
Fast and continual increase in
energy prices
Stagnation
No real change in fuel poverty
Energy prices continue to be a major
concern for businesses
Uncertainly limits business investment
Low carbon sector does not grow
3TWh heat target missed
Business as Usual
Increase fuel poverty
Energy costs cripple businesses with
small profit margins / a high energy
demand impacting on the viability of key
sectors such as Textiles
Limited growth in low carbon sector due to
low demand
3TWh heat target missed
Utopia
Extensive investment in decentralised
energy reduces fuel costs and poverty
Business benefit from being
connected to district heating schemes
High
/ community decentralised energy
reducing energy costs & increase
business competitiveness
Strong local energy sector
Electricity and heat targets exceeded
Big bang
Households partially shielded from the
impact of energy prices / some progress
in reducing fuel poverty
Businesses are partially protected from
the energy prices.
Growth in low carbon sector but no GM
advantage
Electricity and heat targets exceeded
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub
http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765
Key Conclusions:
• Likely to meet the Renewable Electricity, renewable heat target is dependent on
the Scenario
• Both targets could be increased as
• 1 TWh renewable electricity represents 9% of 2011 electricity demand
• 3 TWh renewable heat represents 12% of 2011 heat demand
• Rate of deployment is key to secure local business benefit
• the higher the deployment rate the more local the benefit
• long lead in time require early action
• Local participation is needed to secure local economic and social benefit
• Community schemes
• Individual / business projects
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub
http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765
Wedges Approach to Carbon Emissions
1. Review existing data to establish wedges up to 2015
2. Develop options for the emissions reduction wedges from 2015 to 2020
3. Appraise the options and make recommendations
Progress to Date
Breakdown of 2012 emission