Transcript Slide 1

Digital Planet 2010
The Global Information Economy
October 2010
www.witsa.org
7/17/2015
 WITSA produces Digital Planet
biennially, using data provided
by IHS Global Insight. The
report covers the world’s 75
largest ICT buying nations in
six regions. ICT spending is
measured at the national level,
by 14 industry segments plus
consumer spending, and by
four technology categories.
 The report is now available for
purchase on the WITSA web
site at http://www.witsa.org at a
regular price of $100.00 (USD).
A special discounted rate for
2 students is also available.
www.witsa.org
Revised Spending Projections
7/17/2015
Global ICT Spending
 The Great Recession
fostered a decline of 3.0%
in global ICT spending in
2009, thereby resetting
the industry growth
trajectory to one that will
take until beyond 2013 to
fully recover.
($US Trillions)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
DP 2010
2.5
DP 2008
2.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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 The cumulative gap
between the current and
previous Digital Planet
forecasts represents
approximately $US 1.5T
in unrealized sales of ICT
products and services.
Global ICT Spending 2004-2013
7/17/2015
 ICT sector contracted
(Annual Percent Change)
by $US 108B (-3.0%)
12.3%
in 2009.
10.3%
 Major pain points
10.3%
8.7%
7.7% 7.9%
were the computer
7.4%
7.3%
13.0%
hardware and
6.3%
6.5%
communications
8.0%
7.8%
equipment
8.5%
6.8%
(collectively shrank
4.3%
3.6% 3.8% 3.5%
$US 71B)
 Surge in ICT spending
DP 2010
in 2011, then longDP 2008
-3.0%
term growth
moderating to 6%.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Global ICT Spending
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
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Spending by Region
7/17/2015
 All regions will grow 2011-13.
 Americas will grow the slowest at 5.9% per year from 2009 through 2013, while Asia-Pacific
will post compound annual growth of 9.5%.
 Despite its slower growth rate, the Americas will maintain a slight edge over the other regions
as the largest market for ICT product and services (34.6% in 2013).
 However, Asia-Pacific's share of market will rise from 28.8% in 2009 to 31.1% in 2013.
5.0
Global ICT
Spending by
Region[1]
4.0
($US Trillions)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
Americas
2008
2009
2010
Asia-Pacific
www.witsa.org
2011
EMEA
2012
2013
Growth by Technology Group 2004-2013
7/17/2015
($US Trillions)
3.0
 All four technology groups
will grow 2010-2013
 Communications
technology dominates the
ICT sector, accounting for
approx 58% of spending
over the forecast period.
2.5
2.0
 With nearly 20% of the
market, Services will post
the fastest growth at 7.9%
1.5
1.0
 Software,
Communications, &
Hardware will grow 7.7%,
0.5
7.4%, and 6.6% CAGR
thru 2013. Lower growth
0.0
for hardware due to
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
declining system prices.
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Hardware
Software
Services
Communications
www.witsa.org
Global ICT Spending by Market Segment
($US Trillions)
5.0
 Consumer ICT market
growing rapidly: 2004:
28.8% of ICT market
4.0
 2013: Consumers1/3 of
market (demand for
mobile devices:
smartphones, netbooks,
tablets)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2004
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2005
2006
2007
2008
Consumer
2009
2010
2011
2012
Business & Govt
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2013
 Telecom sector: fastest
growth thru 2013
(12.5%) due to demand
for mobile voice/data
services. Most of
expansion to occur thru
2011, moderating to
5.9% in 2013.
Consumer vs. B2B Commerce
7/17/2015
 Total value of goods &
services commerce globally
peaked at $US 103 trillion in
2008 & will surge to $US 124
trillion in 2013
($US Trillions)
140
120
100
 Total business-to-consumer
commerce to average 34%
of market thru 2013
80
 B2B commerce account for
remaining 66%.
60
40
20
0
2004
8
2005
2006
2007
2008
Consumer
2009
2010
Business & Govt
2011
2012
2013
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 B2B large share as
businesses upgrade ICT to
reduce costs, boost labor
productivity & enhance
competitiveness in global
markets.
ICT As Percent of World GDP
7/17/2015
 As % of total GDP, ICT
spending remained
relatively stable from 2004
to 2006.
7.0%
6.8%
 By the Q4 2007, ICT
spending as a percent of
GDP began to decline.
6.6%
 This ratio will bounce back
to 6.4% in 2011 before
trending towards 6.2%
beyond 2013.
6.4%
6.2%
 Extended technology
refresh cycles produced
by recession will remain
6.0%
thru forecast period.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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ICT Growth Patterns & Forecasts
7/17/2015
(% Growth)
 ICT spending growth
vary significantly
across world regions.
World
 Comparing pre-and
post-recession,
emerging markets in
Africa, Europe and
Middle East to grow
faster than advanced
economies in North
America & Europe
N. Amer.
Europe
Africa
L. Amer.
Asia-Pac.
Middle East
-10%
10
-5%
0%
2004 - 2008
5%
10%
2009
15%
 However, ICT
spending in emerging
markets will grow
substantially slower
20%
25% than pre-recession
levels.
2010 - 2013
www.witsa.org
Nature of the Recovery
7/17/2015
 Telecom sector will experience significantly higher postrecession growth rates
 Consumer spending will cool - still slightly faster than overall
market
 Telecom & consumer market symbiosis: Consumers buying
low-cost mobile devices &voice/data services vs. telco’s
investment in infrastructure needed to service consumer
demand
 Most other industry sectors to experience flat to declining
growth rates.
 Sectors that create value through data, knowledge and
services (e.g., Telecom and Financial Services) have higher
ICT Intensity
 Least ICT-intensive segments: Manufacturing and
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Construction
www.witsa.org
ICT Spending by Market Segment
7/17/2015
($US Billions, Percent Growth)
Market Segment
Consumer
Financial Services
Government
Services
Manufacturing
Telecom
Transportation
Healthcare
Retail Trade
Wholesale & Distribution
Hosp., Hotels & Leisure
Energy and Utilities
Construction
Natural Resources
Educational
Services
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Total
% Growth
2009
1,132,967
342,228
300,909
276,976
274,510
268,460
196,057
159,658
123,930
106,956
93,327
82,391
70,588
50,929
38,432
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3,518,316
2004-08
2008-09
2009-13
9.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.7%
8.3%
5.7%
6.3%
7.1%
6.3%
7.6%
7.8%
8.7%
9.8%
11.8%
7.1%
7.8%
1.6%
-3.1%
-2.1%
-3.4%
-4.0%
-21.8%
2.9%
-1.3%
-3.4%
-1.4%
-2.8%
-3.8%
-2.0%
-2.3%
-2.3%
-3.0%
7.7%
7.3%
4.0%
6.9%
7.0%
12.5%
5.7%
7.2%
6.3%
6.4%
7.4%
7.4%
8.3%
7.8%
7.2%
7.4%
Output/Total Spending by Market Segment
7/17/2015
Market Segment
2009 ICT
Spending
(US$M)
Telecom
Financial Services
Transportation
Healthcare
Consumer
Government
Hosp., Hotels & Leisure
Retail Trade
Wholesale & Distribution
Educational Services
Energy and Utilities
Services
Natural Resources
Manufacturing
Construction
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Overall
268,460
342,228
196,057
159,658
1,132,967
300,909
93,327
123,930
106,956
38,432
82,391
276,976
50,929
274,510
70,588
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3,518,316
2009 Output
(US$T)
2,339
5,199
3,843
3,908
32,916
7,874
2,939
3,681
4,331
2,943
7,055
17,821
3,366
23,890
5,575
127,678
ICT as % of
Output
11.5%
6.6%
5.1%
4.1%
3.4%
3.8%
3.2%
3.4%
2.5%
1.3%
1.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.1%
1.3%
2.8%
7/17/2015
Comments?
Dr. Jim Poisant, Secretary General
[email protected]
Tel. +1 703 728-4547
Anders Halvorsen, Director of Public Policy
[email protected]
Tel. +1 571 265-5964
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