Transcript Slide 1

Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook
Rolake Akinkugbe
West Africa/Gulf of Guinea Specialist & Head of Oil and Gas Research
Ecobank Group
UK-Gabon Investment Forum – 29 November 2012
Section 1
Gabon’s economy: an overview
Gabon has found a new high…
GDP growth has exceeded 6% since 2010; Average of 1.8% prior to 2010
Real GDP growth, annual % change
• Since 2010, Gabon’s
GDP boosted by
increased spending on
infrastructure
12,000,000
• Oil is however still
main export driver
Total exports, US$ 000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Crude oil
2005
Boats
2006
Ores
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wood Products
Source: IMF, Intracen.
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© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
Gabon’s FDI inflows are rising
FDI inflows rose fastest in 2010 as efforts to open the economy accelerated
FDI inflows, US$ m
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2001
2002
2003
Gabon
2004
Cameroon
2005
2006
Cote d'Ivoire
2007
Liberia
Ethiopia
2008
2009
2010
2011
Tanzania
Source: UNCTAD..
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
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Section 2
Key sectors of the economy
Key sectors - hydrocarbons
Gabon is fifth largest crude oil producer in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Production could rise above 260,000 bpd by 2013
• Gabon’s pre-salt upside potential could be as much as 5 billion barrels
% Share of SSA oil production
Crude oil production in Gabon, ‘000 barrels/day
270
266
265
263
261
7%
260
5%
255
248
250
245
241
240
246
244
239
242
5%
244
7%
237
43%
235
230
225
220
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012e
2013f
33%
Crude oil production in Gabon by field, ‘000 barrels/day
Rabi
Onal
Avouma and South Tchibala
MAGHENA (Tsiengui)
Atora
Tchatamba Sud
Baudroie Marine & Nord
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Nigeria
Angola
Congo, Rep
Eq. Guinea
Gabon
Others
2011
Source: Ecobank Research, US IEA, Global Data
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
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Key sectors - mining
• High grade manganese deposits
>250 million tons at Moanda near
Franceville
• World’s 4th largest producer of
manganese – 1.8 million tons
worth almost $6 billion in 2011
• Gabon is looking to increase
production to 5.7 million tons by
2015 to become no 1 in the
world
• New investments from mining
companies
• 1 billion tons of Iron Ore in
Belinga
• Silver, Iron Ore, slag and ash
Belinga Iron Ore
deposits
Ndjole
Manganese
Concession
GABON
South Eastern
deposits of
Uranium
Moanda
Manganese
deposits
Source: Ecobank Research.
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© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
Key sectors – agriculture & agribusiness
Production of many soft commodities in Gabon has slowed, but low
base is a major investment attraction
Annual production, tonnes
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cassava
2005
Plantains
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sugar Cane
Source: FAOSTAT.
• Previously built on the timber industry before oil
• Production of the country’s top 3 crops has stayed largely flat, highlighting potential for boosting
productivity in the sector
• Gabon has more than 15million hectare of farm land; key will be boosting value-chain capacity and
financing (e.g. local processing, beneficiation, market access)
• Planned palm oil boost could open up regional export market
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
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Section 2
Trade Flows and Regional Trade
Gabon key exports in 2011
Crude continues to dominate, but there is scope for diversification
Gabon’s main exports 2008 – 2008 (US$ ‘000)
Annual Growth in Value of Exports (%) ‘07-11
Commodity/Product
Annual Growth in
Value % 2007-2011
Crude Oil & Products
15
Shipping services
22
Ores
Wood & Timber
2
-21
Rubber
26
Other Commodities
17
Tobacco
12
• Oil continues to dominate Gabon’s exports
• Annual growth in value of other exports (except Timber) suggests great scope for
diversification given the right enabling environment
Source: FAOSTAT.
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
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Imports are dominated by manufactured goods and food
Mostly come from France, which accounts for 32% of Gabon’s imports
Imported value in 2011 (US$ ‘000)
Share of Gabon’s Imports (2011)
Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research.
• Imports dominated by France; with EU nearly half of all imports
• Mostly machinery, vehicles, electronics and high-end manufactured and consumer goods
• China is however growing in importance for cheaper manufactured goods
• Although South-South co-operation is growing, until recently trade with emerging market
economies has been low.
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
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Gabon has a handful of export partners
The US dominates (mostly crude oil) accounting for 45% of Gabon’s exports
Share of Gabon’s Exports, 2011
Exported growth in value from 2010-2011 (% p.a.)
Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research.
• Exports dominated by US, Congo Rep. and Malaysia (account for more than 60%)
• Biggest growth in export value between 2007 and 2011 was from Australia, Malaysia and Spain
• However over the past 24 months there has been a surge in exports to Japan and Congo Rep. and a
decline to China and France
• Congo’s 11% share of Gabon’s exports underscore Gabon’s potential to capture bigger share of
CEMAC trade
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 27 November 2012
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Crude oil accounts for nearly 90% of CEMAC’s total exports
…but Gabon can help boost CEMAC intra-regional trade, which is as low as
1.7% of total trade
Crude & Petroleum Products
Wood & Timber
Metals & Ores
Rubber
Cocoa
Cotton
Cameroon
EG
% Share of intra-regional trade to total trade by sub-regional
grouping (2009 – 2011)
Chad
25
20
CAR
15
10
5
2.7
2.5
Gabon
1.7
0
2009
2010
2011
Congo
Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research.
CEMAC
COMESA
EAC
ECOWAS
SADC
WAEMU
• The Central African region has the lowest intra-regional trade flows of all SSA sub-regions
• Cameroon is the regional trade flow hub, but Gabon has huge potential to mirror’s Tanzania’s role in East
African trade for instance; strategically located between CEMAC’s largest oil exporter (Congo) and it’s
largest oil refiner (Cameroon)
• The second biggest export flow of refined products in the region is Gabon, whose biggest export partner
are Congo Rep. & Equatorial Guinea at $10 million worth of products in 2010.
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
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Other energy related opportunities
A regional supplier of refined products
• Gabon’s SOGARA refinery produced 983,000 tonnes of products in 2011
• Has produced around 900,000 tonnes in 2012, despite domestic demand of only
655, 829 tonnes in 2011
• Product surplus (25,000 bpd) from planned new refinery (50,000 bpd in 2016)
will help plug further regional gaps in supply
Gabon’s gas is a potential base for power, agriculture, manufacturing, industry &
petchems
• Gabon has gas reserves of 1 billion cubic feet
• Production will rise steadily through to 2020
• Gabon’s gas provides a based for urea-based
fertiliser production and export
• Value-creation potential of natural gas within
local economy much higher than crude oil
Sources: Ecobank Research, US EIA, Global Data
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© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook | 29 November 2012
Infrastructure and Logistics will be crucial
Logistics performance index 2012, ranking & scores
Country
Rank
Overall
Score
Customs Infrastructure
International Logistics Tracking &
Timeliness
shipments competence
tracing
South Africa
23
3.67
3.35
3.79
3.5
3.56
3.83
4.03
Tanzania
88
2.65
2.17
2.41
2.91
2.64
2.77
2.97
Cameroon
106
2.53
2.37
2.24
2.37
2.41
2.55
3.19
Nigeria
121
2.45
1.97
2.27
2.6
2.52
2.35
2.92
Gabon
131
2.34
2
2
2.4
2.4
2.2
3
Angola
138
2.28
2.33
2.48
2.26
2
2
2.59
Congo, Rep.
149
2.08
1.8
1.27
1.94
2.15
2.35
2.9
Chad
152
2.03
1.86
2
2
2
1.57
2.71
Sources: World Bank LPI Index, 2012.
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•
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Regional trade in CEMAC hampered by continued high non-tariff barriers and infrastructural
constraints
Gabon overall scores marginally better than some of its regional peers such as Congo Rep, and
Chad, and even Angola.
Higher scores for Gabon on international shipments, logistics competence, and timeliness reflect
oil sector development
Lower scores for Gabon on customs and infrastructure (both crucial for underpinning development
of non-oil sector) show considerable room for improvement and are investment opportunities
Special Economic Zone (SEZ) underway will help ease bottlenecks
Is something on the scale of the East Africa & Horn of Africa LAPSSET corridor vision required?
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
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Ecobank in the region
• Ecobank Capital: Arranger on US$220m Phase II refinery upgrade and financing project for SONARA in
Cameroon
• Ecobank Capital: Sole Issuing House for a US$216 mn, 5-year, 6% coupon sovereign bond for Chad
• Over the past 12 months, Ecobank has raised nearly US$300mn of funding aimed at diversifying
Gabon’s economy and support the agribusiness industry
Unrivalled footprint in 33 African
countries
Local knowledge
Full-service banking group
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© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
La Baie des Tortues, Pointe Denis
On est ensemble!
© Ecobank Research 2012 | Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook| 29 November 2012
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Thank you