Transcript Slide 1

THE RISE OF CHINA AND THE DEMISE OF THE CAPITALIST WORLD-ECONOMY
Dr. Minqi Li, Assistant Professor
Department of Economics, University of Utah
Mailing Address: 343 South 500 East #537
Salt Lake City, UT 84102, USA
Phone: 801-828-5279; 801-581-7697
E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
York University, Toronto, Canada, April 24-27, 2008
Paper presented to the Historical Materialism Conference
The Rise of China and the Demise of the Capitalist
World-Economy
(Minqi Li, Pluto Press, November 2008)
• Introduction: China and the Capitalist World-Economy
• Accumulation, Basic Needs, and Class Struggle: The
Rise of Modern China
• China and the Neoliberal Global Economy
• Can the Capitalist World-Economy Survive the Rise of
China?
• Profit and Accumulation: Systemic Cycles and Secular
Trends
• The End of the Endless Accumulation
• Between the Realm of Necessity and the Realm of
Freedom: Historical Possibilities of the Twenty-First
Century
The Capitalist World-Economy
• Inter-state competition (politically necessary for
production for profit and capital accumulation)
• Hegemonic State (system-level solutions to system-level
problems)
Historical Hegemonies
• United Provinces (16th – 18th Century, less than a full
nation-state)
• United Kingdom (18th – 20th Century, an European
nation-state with overseas colonial empires)
• United State (20th Century – ?, a continent-sized state)
Decline of US Hegemony?
• US industrial, financial, and military power relative to
other states
• Is US still capable of providing system-level solutions to
system-level problems?
Share of World GDP, 1975-2006
0.24
0.2
0.16
0.12
0.08
0.04
US
Brazil
Eurozone
India
Japan
China
Russia
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Online. Website:
<http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline> (retrieved November 1, 2007).
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
System-Level Problems
• “Peace”: long-term nuclear proliferation?
• Global Macroeconomic Management
• Post-Neoliberal Global New Deal?
• Preventing Global Ecological Catastrophes?
Can Global Capitalist Economy Be Stabilized?
• No Keynesian state on a global scale / hegemonic state
as an imperfect proxy
• Early postwar years: Marshall Plan / US foreign
investment  global economic expansion
• Neoliberal era: global stagnation / financial crisis / US
current account deficits have played an indispensable
stabilizing role
• US cannot run large and rising current account deficits
any longer / US recession, followed by persistent
stagnation?
• Can China lead the global economy into another golden
age?
Macroeconomic Structure of the Chinese Economy
Share of GDP, 1980-2006
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Consumption
Net Exports
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
-0.1
Investment
Exports
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Website: <http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj>
(retrieved October 15, 2007).
A Global New “New Deal”?
• Global Social Compromise: accommodating new
political and social forces / without undermining global
profit-making and capital accumulation
• Postwar Global New Deal: western working classes /
national bourgeoisies / “socialist states”
• A Post-Neoliberal New Deal?
• The Rise of China and India, and their working classes
• Non-white, immigrant working classes in the West
• Demographic Trends: pensions and health care spending
• Can the capitalist world-economy afford a global new
“new deal”?
How to Prevent Global Ecological Catastrophes?
• Ecological sustainability requires steady-state economy;
capitalist world-economy is based on endless
accumulation of capital
• Inter-state competition and the universal drive for
“development” rule out meaningful global coordination
• It is probably already too late to prevent major
catastrophes
Ecological Footprint of the World’s Major Regions, 2003
(Global Hectares per Person)
Regions (countries)
Eco-Footprint
Eco-Footprint
Bio-Capacity
(Total)
(Non-Energy)
China
1.6
0.84
0.8
India
0.8
0.54
0.4
Africa
1.1
0.84
1.3
Middle East and Central Asia
2.2
0.85
1.0
Asia and Pacific
1.3
0.71
0.7
Latin America and the Caribbean
2.0
1.4
5.4
North America
9.4
3.35
5.7
European Union
4.8
1.91
2.2
Rest of Europe
3.8
1.47
4.6
World
2.23
1.09
1.78
Source: World Wildlife Fund in the USA and Canada, Zoological Society of London, and Global
Footprint Network, Living Planet Report 2006, pp. 28-37. Website:
<http://assets.panda.org/downloads/living_planet_report.pdf> (retrieved January 15, 2007).
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Selected Countries
(Million Tons, 1990-2005)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1992
US
China
1994 1996 1998 2000
Eurozone
Japan
India
Russia
2002
2004
UK
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Online. Website:
<http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline> (retrieved March 1, 2008).
The Demise of the Capitalist World-Economy
• Towards an American-led world-empire? (failed)
• Towards China-led system-level solutions to systemlevel problems? (capitalist world-economy restructured
and renewed? an “anarchic” world order, non-capitalist
world market economy?)
• Towards global nuclear / ecological catastrophes? End
of human history?
• Towards a socialist global world-government? (up to us)