Transcript Slide 1

COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
José Armando Campos
CST
2nd International Meeting on Ironmaking
1st International Symposium on Iron Ore
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13th, 20041
DP0904
GDP - PROJECTIONS
%
Sector
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Industrial
-1.00
4.73
3.66
4.02
3.97
Agricultural
5.00
4.85
4.11
4.22
4.21
Services
-0.10
2.45
2.57
3.08
3.28
Total
-0.20
3.72
3.53
3.74
3.71
Source: Average Market Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004
2
DP0904
GDP - PROJECTIONS
The variation of 4.2% in the 1H04/1H03, shows that it is possible to have,
in 2004, an economic growth greater than the projected number.
The
dynamic
recently
generated in the industry will
make the 2005 growth larger
than the projected number due
to a greater carry-over
5,0
%
4,0
3,7
3,5
3,7
3,7
3,8
2006
2007
2008
3,0
2,0
1,9
1,0
0,0
-0,2
-1,0
Source: Market Average Expectations – BACEN,
as of July 30, 2004
DP0904
2002
2003
2004
2005
3
ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004
COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003
Sectors
Agriculture
GDP + 4.2%
Industry
Services
+ 5.7 %
Sub-Sectors
Transformation
+ 7.3%
Construction
+ 2.0 %
+ 4.2 %
+ 2.8 %
Industrial Services + 2.0 %
Public Services
Mineral Extraction - 2.9 %
• Greatest 1st semester growth since 2000.
• Growth in all sectors.
• In terms of demand the biggest growth were in exports, which had a 17.8% increase. The
indirect steel exports increased 33.5% (1H04/1H03).
• Automobile production in the 1st semester went up by 15% compared to the same period
in 2003.
DP0904
Source: IBGE, Anfavea, others
4
ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter 2004
COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003
• It was the greatest GDP growth (5.7%) since the 3rd quarter of 1996.
• The Industrial Sector grew 6.6%.
• The Sub-sector Transformation Industry had the highest growth rate pushed by:
- durable goods – highlight to automotive vehicles
- capital goods – highlight to machines and equipment
RESUMING OF INVESTIMENTS (growth of 11.7%)
•The Construction Sector grew 6.7%, after 5 successive quarters in decrease.
Source: IBGE, others
DP0904
5
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(January 2003 = 100)
1991
1992 1993
1994 1995 1996
1997
1998 1999
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: IBGE
6
DP0904
INDUSTRY - GENERAL
% CAPACITY UTILIZATION
CNI
82,2
7
DP0904
STEEL CONSUMPTION x GDP
210
4.7% per year
Index Number: 1990=100
190
Steel Consumption
170
Elasticity - Income
2.1
150
GDP
130
2.3% per year
110
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Fonte:
Instituto Brasileiro de Siderurgia – IBS
DP0904
8
APPARENT CONSUMPTION
EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS
40,0
%
32,2
32,1
31,2
32,2
32,9
29,0
30,0
24,5
21,3
19,7
21,1
Construction Industry
Automotive Industry
21,0
21,0
20,5
19,6
19,6
7,1
6,9
7,6
8,0
2000
2001
2002
20,0
18,0
15,5
10,0
7,7
15,2
8,1
Capital Goods, Machines
and Equipment (incl.
Agricultural)
Household and
Commercial Appliances
0,0
1998
Source: IBS
DP0904
1999
2003
9
DOMESTIC SALES
January ~ June total domestic sales when comparing 04/03 shows an
increase of 11% (flat and long).
Sectores
Automotive Industry
Auto Parts
Shipbuilding
Agricultural and Highway Machinery
Construction Industry
Household and Commercial Appliances
January - July (tonnes)
2002
2003
2004
449.393
498.106
23.799
102.918
485.431
238.905
456.534
551.482
15.376
132.501
479.301
228.317
612.445
671.683
56.892
168.057
532.851
274.989
Variation (%)
04/02
36,3
34,8
139,1
63,3
9,8
15,1
04/03
34,2
21,8
270,0
26,8
11,2
20,4
Source: IBS
10
DP0904
EXPORTS
Exports reached 7.5 mt between January and July 2004; 4.5% greater
than the same period in 2003.
Between January and July/2004 semi-finished products represented 52%
of our exports, flat products 28%, long products 15% and others 5%.
2003
2004
Jan ~ July
Asia
36.1%
Asia
45.5%
* 3.5%
North Am.
21.6%
Latin Am.
19.0%
Source: IBS
DP0904
Europe
10.4%
North Am.
25.6%
Latin Am.
23.4%
* 4.2%
Europe
10.7%
(*) Middle East, Africa, Oceania
11
EXPORTS
Steel exports currently represent 42% of total production of finished and
semi-finished products.
About 55% of the exports correspond to semi-finished products.
Finished products exports surpass the level of 5.5 million tons/year for
nearly all types of products.
12
DP0904
DOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECAST
GDP projection scenarios applied to the equation resulting from the
regression analysis give the following demands for steel products:
25,0
mt
Flat Products
Long Products
Total
PROJECTION
21,7
20,1
20,0
18,6
15,3
15,0
12,1
12,0
15,8
14,5
13,0
16,7
16,5
17,2
16,0
14,8
14,1
13,6
12,5
10,7
10,0
8,3
7,7
7,3
6,3
4,9
4,7
9,7
9,3
9,1
7,2
5,0
23,5
11,5
9,8
9,5
7,9
6,2
6,2
6,5
7,0
7,0
5,3
6,1
6,6
7,0
7,6
8,1
8,7
0,0
94
DP0904
Source: IBS
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
13
EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTION
CAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTION
CRUDE STEEL
000’ tones
45
38,7
40
35
32,9
28,3
30
22,3
25,1
26,2
36,1
33,0
28,9
31,1
25
25,0
Production
20,5
18,5
17,0
15
Consumption
26,7
26,0
22,2
20
17,7
19,1
24,0
20,6
15,6
12,0
10
5,5
5
29,9
34,1 34,7
Capacity
43,9
39,8
13,3
6,0
5,4
Projection
0
1970 19751980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Note: Does not include the new plants in the Northeast planned for export.
The present investment program will allow the sector
to meet growth demands as well as to keep exports.
DP0904
14
INVESTMENTS
Investment projects in the sector show a commitment to the internal
market by meeting the increase in demand
US$ 7.4 bi shall be invested between 2004 and 2008
Installed capacity will increase from 34 to 44 million t/year
Average annual forecast growth of the internal demand for steel between
1.2 and 1.4 million tons of products.
Production capacity in the sector will remain above the internal demand for
all types of products.
15
DP0904
PROGRAMMED INVESTMENTS
PROGRAM 2004/2008
INSTALLED COMPANIES
SOURCE OF THE INVESTMENTS
Total: US$ 7.4 billion
106US$
Own Resources
50.6%
2500
2.137
2000
1.733
1.533
1.511
1500
1000
501
500
0
2004
Source: IBS
DP0904
2005
2006
2007
2008
Domestic Currency
24.6%
Foreign Currency
24.8%
16
INVESTMENTS
Projection 2004 ~2008 – US$ 7.4 billion
Sectors
Applications
Specials Steel
Raw Materials
Treatment
and Energy
24.5%
Reduction
25.9%
Other
18.0%
Flat
Products
Source: IBS
3.1
* **
(*) Environment = 2,5%
(**) Modernization/Automation/Research = 2,2%
DP0904
3.6
7.4
Rolling
12.6%
Steelmaking
7.8%
Casting
6.5%
Long
Products
0.7
US$ billion
17
INVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREA
EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY
mt
25,0
22,9
23,6
23,6
24,4
23,1
19,2
19,5
24,9
24,0
24,9
24,7
Sinter Plants
Blast Furnaces
19,6
15,0
SOL included
8,6
7,0
7,0
9,1
9,1
7,0
Coke Plants
7,0
7,5
7,5
2006
2007
2008
5,0
2003
DP0904
Source: IBS
2004
2005
18
INVESTMENTS
Investments in Brazilian Steel Industry
State Control
US$ million
Private Control
Projection
+ US$ 7.4 bi
US$ 13.0 bi
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
84
DP0904
86
Source: IBS
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
PRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATION
Prices Variation – R$/t
(Base January 2002 = 100)
350
Pig Iron
300
Scrap
250
Iron Ore
200
Electric Power
150
IGP-M
100
50
20
DP0904
COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
José Armando Campos
CST
2nd International Meeting on Ironmaking
1st International Symposium on Iron Ore
21
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13th, 2004
DP0904