Transcript Slide 1

Global livestock markets: outlook, policies, and
future challenges
Nancy Morgan,
Livestock Economist
FAO/World Bank
1
The Livestock Revolution revisited: World Meat Production and Trade
Production Driven by Gains in
Poultry/Pork Sectors
With Trade Growing Faster
than Production
Animal disease
250
20
Million tonnes
200
150
100
15
10
50
5
0
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009
Beef Pigmeat Poultry Ovine
2
90
Beef
95
2000
Pork
2004
2005
Poultry Meat
2008
Ovine
2009
The regional diversity of gains in meat consumption,
1982-2008
Developing
Develped
Global meat consumption gains
more than doubles since the early
1980s (129=>285 mmt).
Other
Of the more than 150 mmt increase,
Asian increases account for
100 mmt.
Europe
North America
Latin America
African consumption increases less
than 10 million tons with per capita
consumption rising from 13 kg-22
kg/caputa
Asia
Africa
-50
0
50
Million metric tons
100
150
Growth in Dairy Sectors in
Developing Countries Continues Unabated
2017
900,000
800,000
700,000
1,000 tons
600,000
500,000
Other
developing
Asia
Developed
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
83 1992 2002 2007 2009
9
1
- - - 91 81 1990 2000 2005
4
201
7
Over the past twenty-five
years developing countries
contributed nearly threequarters of global
consumption gains for both
meat and dairy
.....80% of production gains
came from smallholders
What about the evolution in meat trading patterns?
NET MEAT TRADE STATUS, 2008
Developing
Develped
Other
Oceania
Europe
North America
Latin America
Asia
Africa
Key Importing Regions:
Asia: 40% imports
Europe: 22% imports
N. America: 10%
Key Exporting Regions:
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Million metric tons
N. America: 30%
Latin America: 30%
Europe: 13%
Oceania: 12%
Key Indicators which reveal opportunities for import
substitution, etc.
Key Indicators
Imports: %
Consumption
Exports: %
Production
Volume (Value ) of Imports
Developing
10
6
12
Developed
7
11
11
Europe
9
5
5.2 ($14 billion)
North America
5
17
2.4 ($6.7 billion)
Latin America
8
16
2.6 ($4 billion)
Asia
9
2
10.6 ($16.3 billion)
Africa
13
1
1.7 (1.7 billion)
WORLD
8
8
23.2 ($43 billion)
Key opportunities
are domestically
driven
Potential in terms of consumption growth,
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
How much do we eat?
Kg/caputa
Per capita meat and dairy
product consumption in
developing
countries, despite
rapid gains, remains about
one-third the levels of
developed countries.
Developed
Developing
Asia
Africa
Meat
Milk
Large opportunities for consumption gains
in livestock products in developing countries
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THE CRYSTAL BALL:
Consumption gains to slow over the next decade….
3.85
Milk
1998-2007
2.7
Beef
2.48
Pigmeat
2.65
Poultry
2.07
Vegetable Oils
3.07
Rice
1.09
Coarse grains (feed)
1.78
Wheat
0.57
0
8
2008-2017
2
4
6
% change per annum
8
10
....but livestock products remain the fastest growing commodity
Of key concern, however, is uncertainty about commodity price levels and
price volatility!!!!
Implications for livestock sectors:
•Focus on developing strong and competitive
local markets.
• Considerable investments to be made in
research and development, with a
focus on alternative feeds.
•Governments should allocate money in an
efficient way, looking at effective
provision of services (veterinary/
extension)
• Donor funds should leverage this
investment, not substitute for it!!!
Challenges to the Sector
Increasing complex and competitive environment
Structure of modern food sector quickly
evolving
– Longer livestock value chains
– Mounting pressure on resource
availabilities, including water, grazing land
Juxaposed by farming systems which in
many cases are still at the preliminary
stage of development
Lack of financing and strategic thinking by policy makers
leads to livestock development that can be unsustainable
and detrimental to rural economic development
Challenges to the Livestock Sector
100
90
80
14
70
60
50
40
30
10
12
% rural poverty
8
6
4
20
10
2
% ODA to Ag
-
0
1990
11
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
% ODA to agriculture
% poverty in rural areas
Donor support to agriculture
Current World Bank
Livestock Portfolio
28
Millions (current $)
700
30
•
25
•
7 Livestock-only and 58
livestock component projects
US 1.9 billion
•
65 % in Africa and East Asia
•
Performance rating at par with
other sectors
600
20
500
400
14
15
300
200
7
7
4
10
Number of Projects
800
5
100
0
5
0
AFRVP EAPVP ECAVP LACVP MNAVP SASVP
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Lifting livestock’s long shadow
From degradation to
carbon sequestration
From desertification to
sustainable
management
From pollution to
biogas and clean
water
The Global Zoonotic Disease Challenge beyond Avian Influenza
Certainly the high and pervasive costs of animal disease
are fostering concerns about animal industries
1/ Indirect costs not available.
10
$9.2
8
US$billion
Indirect
Direct
$6.6
6
$3.8
4
$2.3
2
$.433 $.015
$.08
$.500
15
BSE
N
Ja
p
et
h
an
er
la
nd
s
1/
1/
ea
K
or
.K
.
U
ru
gu
ay
U
an
Ta
iw
N
et
h
U
er
la
nd
s
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.
0
CFS
FMD
AI
PLATFORMS FOR INVESTMENT
IN LIVESTOCK FOOD CHAINS
Ensuring sustainable systems to support livestock
development (with a particular emphasis on
mitigating environment impact)
Facilitating safe marketing and cross border trade in
animal products
Safety of livestock food chains
16
LOTS OF KNOWLEDGE
Understanding how to support livestock sectors:
Markets, budgets and investments
Share of livestock in agricultural GDP and livestock service in agricultural budgets,
1978/1979.
Region/Country
Share of livestock GDP in
agricultural
GDP (%)
Budgetary share of livestock services in
agricultural services (%)
West & Central
Africa
Burkina Faso
29
16
Cameroon
10
14
Gambia
21
4
Niger
29
8
Sierra Leone
7
5
Botswana
(75-80)1
44
Ethiopia
33
11
Kenya
40
34
Lesotho
58
28
Malawi
6
21
Swaziland
16
East & Southern
Africa
48
Source: Addis Anteneh (1991). Estimates from various sources. Staff and non-staff costs: The
crisis of animal health services.
1
75% of the world’s poor are rural and most are involved in
livestock rearing or trading. Development of the sector
remains fundamental for poverty reduction, economic
growth and environmental sustainability
The Challenge--- supporting sector development
through effective strategy development,
policy implementation, and investment.