Transcript Document

Presentation
Minsk, Republic of Belarus
Positive trends in the economy of
the Republic of Belarus in the first
quarter of 2012
•Delay of inflationary processes (inflation for 2011 – 108,7 %, for the 1st quarter of 2012 - 5 %, for April –
1,7 %. Decrease in the rate of refinancing from the beginning of year on 11 % items – up to 34 % per
annum as of 16.05.2012)
•The positive balance of foreign trade for the 1st quarter has made 1,366 billion US dollars (for the 1st
quarter of 2011 Belarus had negative foreign trade balance – 2,112 billion US dollars)
•Stabilization in the currency market (the offer of a foreign currency exceeds demand)
•The termination of issue lending of the state projects
•Decrease in inflationary and devaluation expectations of the population and, as a consequence – inflow
of deposits in national currency of the population (alongside with foreign – currency deposits) in the
Belarusian banks
•Activization of small and medium business
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The basic macroeconomic parameters
in the 1st quarter of 2012
1.
The GDP volume in the 1st quarter of 2012 has made 105,6 bln. BYR and has increased in comparison with the 1st quarter of
2011 in the comparable prices for 3 % at the forecast for 2012 – the GDP increase on 5 - 5,5 %. (For 2011 GDP has increased to a
level of 2010 for 5,3 %). GDP per capita in the 1st quarter of 2012 – 1,4 thousand US dollars (in 2011 - 3,5 thousand US
dollars, in 2010 – 5,8 thousand US dollars)
2.
The population – 9,5 million people, 70 % – the townspeople. 4,65 million people are engaged in economy. A level of the
incorporated unemployment – 0,7 % from economically active population
3.
The volume of retail commodity circulation in the 1st quarter of 2012 has made 39 bln. BYR, or 107,7 % to a level of the 1st
quarter of 2011. Industrial outputs for the 1st quarter of 2012 has increased in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2010 for 8,3 %.
Agricultural production in the 1st quarter of 2012 has increased for 6,1 % in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2011
Direct foreign investments (except for banks) in the 1st quarter of 2012 have made 3,9 billion US dollars, that is 1,2 % less, than
in the 1st quarter of 2011 (in 2011 - 18,9 billion US dollars, that in 2,1 times more, than for 2010).
The basic investors: Russia (40,1 % from all investments),
The United Kingdom (32,73 %), Cyprus (5,2 %), Austria (4,6 %).
External public debt
4.
5.
On 01.04.2012 – 11,9 billion US dollars at the installed limit 14,3 billion US dollars
6.
Ratings of Belarus:
- Dagong sovereign credit under obligations in national and a foreign currency at level BВ and ВВ-, the forecast – stable
- Standard and Poor's a sovereign long-term credit rating at a level «В-», the forecast is stable; short-term – at a level "C".
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Parameters of National Bank
of the Republic of Belarus activity in the 1st quarter
of 2012
Parameters
The forecast
for January, 1st 2013
In fact
as of April, 1st
2012
International alternate actives of Belarus according to methodology of
IMF, billion US dollars
7,92 – 8,33
8,09
20 - 23
38,0
Gain of retail deposits in banks of Belarus /in percentage from the
beginning of year
Gain of corporate deposits in banks of Belarus /in percentage from
the beginning of year
Gain of national monetary base/ in percentage from the beginning of
year
24 – 25
15,8
21-23
- 2,9
25-28
- 25,1
Gain of consumer prices by December of previous year/percent
19 - 22
5,0
Gain of banks requirements to economy, in percentage from the
beginning of year
17 - 23
4,6
No more than 8
4,35
The key interest rate at the end of the period /annual interest
Share of distressed assets of banks in assets,
subject to credit risk, in percentage
4
Parameters of RDB-BANK
(under national standards)
Parameters of safe functioning
Requirement
criterion
2010
2011
1-05-2012
Regulatory capital (mln, euro)
> 25
28,8
13,5
15,7
Sufficiency of regulatory capital
>8
38,7
26,8
31,5
Short-term liquidity
>1
2,1
1,4
1,5
> 20%
32%
47,8%
48,5%
Unit
2010
2011
1-05-2012
Mln, US dollars
4,77
2,04
0,8
Bln, BYR
14,3
17,0
6,8
Return on assets
%
5,1
2,4
2,1
Return on equity
%
18,8
17,5
16,6
Mln, US dollars
79
40
36
Bln, BYR
237
337
291
Mln, US dollars
62
62
67
Bln, BYR
186
519
542
Mln, US dollars
0,77
0,54
0,32
Bln, BYR
2,3
4,5
2,6
Parity of liquid and total assets
Assets and liabilities of Bank
Bank profit
Credit portfolio
Customer deposits
Defaulted debts
The environment of business functioning
Activization of SME
As of April, 1st, 2012 317 551 subject of small business is registered in Belarus, that on 2,1 % is more in
comparison with the beginning of the year.
Number of individual enterpreneurs as of April, 1st, 2012 has made 223 582 person, having increased on 4 297
person in comparison since January, 1st, 2012.
The wide network of infrastructure subjects of small and medium business supporting operates now in Belarus: 77
business support centers and 16 incubators of small enterpreneurship.
On January, 1st 2011 the Decree №450 “ About licensing of dedicated branches of activity “has come into
force. By this Decree the licensing of 16 branches of activity was cancelled, as a result of which more than 30 % of
operating business of Belarus are released from reception of licenses.
According to the accepted by the President of the Republic of Belarus Instruction №4 ” About progress of the
enterprise initiative and stimulation of business activity in Belarus “, state and private enterprises are in equal conditions
The President of the Republic of Belarus has set the task on Belarus ocurrence in the TOP-30 countries with
the best conditions for business dealing by 2015, in the TOP-50 countries of the world on a level of economic freedom.
( Now Belarus takes 69-th place in the report of World bank and IFC « Business dealing - 2011 » (in 2010 – 58 place).
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SME crediting centers
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Joint-Stock Company " RDB-BANK " has 17 crediting centers in 14
Belarusian largest towns that allows to capture up to 70 % of task force
Minsk and Minsk region
Minsk, Borisov, Molodechno
Brest region
Brest, Baranovichi
Grodno region
Grodno
Gomel region
Gomel, Zhlobin, Mozyr
Mogilev region
Mogilev, Bobruisk
Vitebsk region
Vitebsk, Orsha, Novopolotsk
92 % of SME credit portfolio are generated due to resources of Bank
Resources for SME
SME Portfolio
Structure
Prognostic
portfolio on 2012
Bank resources
Prognostic loan
disbursement 2012
Current portfolio
EBRD resources
mln, US dollars
mln, US dollars
20
15
10
5
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
25
20
15
10
5
0
4 months,
ACTUAL
01.05.2012
92% of SME credit portfolio are generated
due to resources of Bank
Resources
2008
2009
2010
2011
01.05.2012
EBRD resources
3,0
3,0
2,1
1,3
0,9
Bank resources
3,6
5,9
14,6
10,1
9,7
Total
6,6
8,9
16,7
11,4
10,6
6 months
9 months
12 months
Projects of current month:
_________________________________________
Umabel
600 000., $
Agrotech
170 000., $
RD Group
285 000., $
Register
250 000., $
Malkut
130 000., $
RSM Tracks
175 000., $
_________________________________________
Stable demand for credits from SME is kept at a level of the offer of 11 % interest rates annual. Active
participation of Bank in the given segment will allow to increase the credit portfolio in 2 times up to the end of
2012 and to reach a parameter of 20,2 million US dollars.
Business is ready for active progress
Bank is ready for active crediting
For more successful functioning of “RDB-BANK”, finishing up to the normative requirement of its
capital (25 million euro), as well as satisfaction of growing demands of the Belarusian business in
credits by bank , financial resources are necessary.
Bank is ready for active crediting, business is ready for active progress.
Thanks for attention
Reporter:
Retail banking director of Joint-Stock Company “RDB-Bank”
Sergey Tsybulin
The material is prepared by:
Marketing and client service management
E. Narkevich
Department of the economic analysis and the finance
O. Kirdeeva
18 Krasnozvezdnaya str.,
Minsk, Republic of Belarus
220034
Теl: +375 17 269 23 25
[email protected]
Теl: +375 17 269 23 83
[email protected]