Transcript Bas de Gaaij Fortman - SID Netherlands Website

Early Early Warning
Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
Stylised fact
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
Stylised fact
……….
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
-ethnicity
-religion
-partiarchy
-nationalism
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
………...
HISTORICAL
CONTEXT
-colonialist policies
-conflict in the past
Stylised fact
……….
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
-ethnicity
-religion
-partiarchy
-nationalism
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
Divisive
ideologies
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
Divisive
leadership
………...
Stylised fact
……….
Refugees
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
HISTORICAL
-ethnicity
CONTEXT
Revenge -religion
-colonialist policies
-partiarchy
-conflict in the past
-nationalism
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Quality of
Politics
Divisive
ideologies
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
Divisive
leadership
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Refugees
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
HISTORICAL
-ethnicity
CONTEXT
Revenge -religion
-colonialist policies
-partiarchy
-conflict in the past
-nationalism
MILITARY
-arms
proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL
SITUATION
-global
-regional
Quality of
Politics
Divisive
ideologies
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
MEDIA
-propaganda
-press freedom
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
Divisive
leadership
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Refugees
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
HISTORICAL
-ethnicity
CONTEXT
Revenge -religion
-colonialist policies
-partiarchy
-conflict in the past
-nationalism
MILITARY
-arms
proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL
SITUATION
-global
-regional
Quality of
Politics
Divisive
ideologies
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
State
control
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
MEDIA
-propaganda
-press freedom
Divisive
leadership
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Refugees
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
HISTORICAL
-ethnicity
CONTEXT
Revenge -religion
-colonialist policies
-partiarchy
-conflict in the past
-nationalism
MILITARY
-arms
proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL
SITUATION
-global
-regional
Quality of
Politics
ECONOMIC ORDER
Divisive
ideologies
STATE
-effective presence
-legitimacy
-entitlement systems
-collective sector
CIVIL SOCIETY
-trade unions
-churches
-political parties
State
control
Relative deprivation theory
Resource mobilization theory
Entitlement systems analysis
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
Poor resource base
(pressure on resources)
Indices on productivity &
entitlement
Indicators:
HDI (related to GDP)
Population
-composition
-land carrying capacity
Income distribution
-quintiles ratio
MEDIA
-propaganda
-press freedom
Divisive
leadership
………...
Stylised fact
……….
INTRA-STATE
VIOLENCE
in different
manifestations
Refugees
INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC
ORDER
-Supra-state shifts in
entitlement
CULTURAL IDENTITY
FACTORS
HISTORICAL
-ethnicity
CONTEXT
Revenge -religion
-colonialist policies
-partiarchy
-conflict in the past
-nationalism
MILITARY
-arms
proliferation
GEO_POLITICAL
SITUATION
-global
-regional
Conflict Perceived
and its
Roots in
SOCIETY
Incompatibility of
Interests
(lack of) mediating mechanisms
Socially open or closed.
Role of ideology
Collective prejudice
Pluralism
Power-sharing
Quality of group leadership
Social mobility
Protection of minorities
Group recognition
& group rights (minority rights)
Collective equality (no systemic
discrimination)
CULTURE
Freedom of expression
Ways of voicing dissent and criticism
Role of media
Freedom of worship
Fundamentalism vs Tolerance
Multi-culturalism
Quality of religious leadership
Cultural identities
Religious convictions
Voice
POLITY
Do people feel they own the state or that
the state owns them? Is this likely to
change?
Legitimacy
Social Contract
Democracy
Quality of political leadership
Rule of Law
A fair and functioning legal system
Access tot political power and to public
goods
Citizenship and political rights
Legal protection
ECONOMY
Trends and expectations in economic
growth and income distribution
Employment
Poverty and vulnerability
Empowerment rights
Scope for collective action
(from resistance to reform)
land reform
Development
Income and wealth (distribution)
Pressure on and access to resources
Economic, social and cultural rights
Entitlement systems and social
protection
NB
This matrix has to be read in a dynamic way: rather than static facts these are processes and actors in such processes.
28-29 January 2002
Bas de Gaay Fortman
PROTECTIVE
Security
Vulnerability
Access to Justice
ECONOMIC
Macro: growth/stability
Micro: Assets
Opportunities
POLITICAL-JURIDICAL
Rights
Influence
Freedoms
POOR
BASIC SERVICES
Health
Education
Nutrition
SOCIOCULTURAL
Status
Dignity
Contacts (social capital)
THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE STATE
Private Law
(Property, contract, etc)
Institutions
(communities, associations)
Health
State
Education
Talent
Character
Entitlements
Environment:
• Economy
• Polity
• Society
Claims
Capacities
Activities
ACQUIREMENT
(failure)