Transcript STUC Awayday 2009 - Scottish Union Learning

Presentation on the Scottish economy
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Output (GDP) started to fall in second quarter
2008
Technical recession confirmed once output
had fallen for 2 consecutive quarters
Now officially the longest recession in
modern times – but growth will soon resume
Research shows that recessions resulting
from financial crisis tend to be longer and
deeper – 5 years before GDP & employment
recover?
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Employment fell by 56,000 in the year to
September ‘09
ILO unemployment rose by 67,000
Youth unemployment rose by 75% between
Aug ‘07 and Aug ‘09
Repeating the mistakes of the past?
This recession is different – impacts yet
unclear
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6% fall in GDP
Manufacturing badly hit – 13% fall in output;
Export-orientated sectors worst affected –
25% decline in chemicals; electronics,
transport equipment & mechanical
engineering between 10-20%;
Construction, financial services & real
estate/business services – all associated with
property/finance roots of recession
19
9
19 8 q
9 2
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9 3
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9 4
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09 4
q1
Percent
Figure 1: Scottish and UK Quarterly GDP Growth, 1998q2 to 2009q1
2.0
1.5
1.0
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0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Scotland
UK
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
• PACE National Redundancy Initiative
- Improved Website and Helpline 0808 100 1855
- 240+ Companies, 14,400 individuals assisted
- ESF Approvals and increased staffing
• Revised ILA Offer support for Individuals earning up to £22k
• Redundant Apprentice Interventions
- Clearing House system to support displaced Apprentices
- Adopt an Apprentice - £2k recruitment incentive
- Safeguard an Apprentice, sector focus £75 per week
• Increased Customer Demand
- Visits to Centres up 10%
- Call Centre Activity up 40%
• 7,800+ New Apprenticeships, representing an 80% increase in
new starts
• Introduction of New Level 2 MA’s e.g. Civil engineering
• Innovate with an Apprentice 2 for 1 Offer and new Life Science MA
Framework
• Invest in an Apprentice to stimulate 1st time recruitment in SMEs
• Supporting Job Growth, integrated support Packages
• Pilot of Business Improvement Techniques VQ
Towards Growth
• Need to keep services Agile and Responsive to Labour
Market demands and opportunities
• Improved Transition Programmes for “Mature” Employees
• Co-Creation of Services with:
- Business - Industry Advisory Boards
- Scottish Funding Council
- Trade Unions
- Individuals
• Smarter systems to Inform service development
• Build capacity and deliver on Skills Utilisation
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The ‘Credit Crunch’- Sept ’07- end of housing
and credit bubbles
2008 commodities bubble – rising oil and
food prices
The financial crisis following the collapse of
Lehman Bros Investment Bank in Sept 2008
Sudden and massive collapse in global
demand
First truly global recession
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Bankers, other financial intermediaries,
regulators, central banks...
A failure of politics
A failure of ideas
Definitely not the workers – those who are
now paying with their jobs
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Maintain government spending
Support those hardest hit by recession
Fix the financial system
Rebalance towards manufacturing
Redistribute wealth – rising inequality breeds
economic instability
Greening the economy, creating sustainable
jobs
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The deficit - why is it rising rapidly? Falling
tax revenues, the upfront costs of the bank
bailout, rising social spending and fiscal
stimulus
The stock of debt – not high by historical or
international standards
Does the government have to cut spending
now or in the future?
Can the government raise more revenue?
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Campaign for action to keep people in jobs &
to create new jobs
Action to maintain and indeed increase
investment in skills
Facility time for trade union representatives
Maintaining enthusiasm for trade union
learning!