Transcript Slide 1

Balancing Long and Short Term
Agricultural Water Security
Investments: Promoting Market-Driven
Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to
Large-Scale Water Infrastructure
Douglas J. Merrey
Director of Research, FANRPAN
Africa Water Week, Tunis, March 2008
Main Message
Large-scale water investments for agriculture and
other purposes are important but take years
before they provide benefits
They will therefore not contribute directly to 2015 MDGs
In parallel, policy reforms and modest targeted
public investments to encourage a micro-water
management industry and market support
system will provide large returns, contribute
significantly to reducing poverty in a shorter time
frame
And enhance the future benefits of infrastructure when it
comes on stream
Outline
1. Briefly, the case for large-scale water
infrastructure (Grey and Sadoff)
2. Micro-water management: Evidence
showing benefits (treadle pump example)
3. Why have micro-water management
technologies not scaled up?
4. Recommendations for the way forward
1. Water Security: The Case for Infrastructure
Investments
 “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth
and development,” David Grey and Claudia
Sadoff, Water Policy 2007
 Excellent article making the case for renewed
investments on water infrastructure, especially in
Africa
 Briefly present their argument, as it makes the case
for the Conference Theme: “Accelerating Water
Security for Socio-Economic Development of Africa”
 I have some reservations, but for this presentation
accept the validity of their argument
“Water Security”
 ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life
and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of waterrelated risks
 Necessary condition for economic growth
 Wealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in
easy conditions
 Poor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”
 “direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security
 Some “hampered by hydrology”
 Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology”
Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to
achieve “minimum platform” of water security
 Some slides from Dr. Grey
Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff
2108
2,000
1,800
United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr
1,600
1,400
581
800
29
Burkina Faso
114
38
Uganda
204
55
Tanzania
126
21
200
85
400
184
600
430
1,000
500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption
for reasonable quality of life
900
1,200
Morocco
Egypt
Algeria
World Average
Energy use per person in Africa
Senegal
Ghana
Kenya
Ethiopia
Nigeria
0
Cameroon
Elec consumption (kWh/yr)/Capita
Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity
Water storage per person (m3)
Updated from M Solomon
7,000
6,150
6,000
4,729
5,000
4,000
3,255
2,486
746
1,406
North
America
Australia
Brazil
Ethiopia
0
China
160
South
Africa
1,000
1,287
Laos
2,000
Thailand
3,000
Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall
Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate
institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage
Impacts of Floods and Droughts
Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982
3.0
1.0
5.0
0.0
-1.0
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0.0
1979
Real GDP growth (%)
2.0
10.0
-2.0
-5.0
-3.0
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
-10.0
-4.0
Years
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
15.0
2. Micro-water management: Evidence
showing benefits
Sources of evidence
1. IWMI survey—SADC countries of “MicroAgricultural Water Management” (Micro-AWM)
experiences
2. Case studies treadle pumps: Malawi, Ghana, Mali,
Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania
3. Work in Asia (especially India)
4. Several studies on drip irrigation kit experiences in
Zimbabwe (counter-factual)
5. Work by Sokoine Agriculture University, SWMnet,
IMAWESA project, etc.
Although mostly case studies, evidence for
following is compelling
“Agricultural Water Management”
(AWM)
AWM – technologies, practices to capture,
store or drain water, lift and transport it,
and apply it to crops in the field
Continuum ‘formal’ irrigation  “micro-AWM”
[drip, treadle pumps]  capturing and
managing water in “rainfed” fields [rainwater
harvesting, conservation agriculture]
Use “treadle pump” example here, but
argument applies to a large menu of
small individualized technologies
Treadle Pumps--Types
KENYA
S. AFRICA
Tanks and Drips
Micro-AWM--a “best bet” investment
 Low-cost small-scale technologies and
practices are promising investments:
 Relatively low cost per household can benefit more
people/$
 Rapid impacts: minimal gestation period
 Individualized—lower transaction costs than
communal or government irrigation
 Lend themselves to being promoted through markets,
and to being targeted, e.g., to women, or poor
 Not a panacea, but high potential
intervention if done right, in the right
circumstances
Treadle Pumps—Malawi Study
Impact study comparing 50 adopters and
non-adopters in 2 districts, Malawi
(Mangisoni 2006; 2008 forthcoming)
Adopters have significantly higher productivity
& incomes, better food security, ability to
improve lives; created employment
Non-adopters (using water cans)—poorer,
with higher risk of falling deeper into poverty
Consistent with results in other East and West
African countries
• Ghana study from IWMI
similar results
• Recent study by
FANRPAN in Zambia—
significant impacts on
poverty (Merrey et al.
2008)
• Kickstart in Tanzania and
Kenya report significant
contributions to economic
growth
(www.kickstart.org)
From Treadle to Motorized Pumps
Irrigating eggplant
with motorized
pump
purchased with
profits from
treadle pump—
Zambia (A.
Daka)—a route
to prosperity
If micro-AWM so good, why have they not
reached any scale in SSA?
 Main problem is restrictive and variable
government policies (Merrey & Sally,
forthcoming in Water Policy, 2008)
 Compounded by small national markets in most SSA
countries
 Mostly NGO-driven; these tend to be supply-driven
limited-time projects, often for relief
 Often import technology; no local support system for spare
parts, replacement, scaling up
 Examples show quality manufacturing is possible in SSA but
firms face many impediments
Inconsistent, Unsupportive Policies
 No SSA country has a long-term supportive
policy framework for encouraging a local marketdriven industry (manufacture, sales, after-sales
service, etc)
 Inconsistent policies: duties on imports;
subsidized imports and distribution through MPs
under projects
High costs (2-5 X Indian price), no long-term
investment
 Small national input & output markets, and poor
market access for sale of produce
Recommendations: Way Forward
National Level
 With stakeholders, develop consistent long term
supportive policies & designate a lead agency
 Support for local R&D, social marketing, low-cost
loans
 Limited-time “smart” subsidies to kickstart the
industry, focused on small farmers
 Target women, households who have labor and land but
need help with capital
 Use input vouchers as a way of subsidizing through the
markets
 Build into overall long-term agricultural and water
resources development policies
Recommendations: Way Forward
Regional Economic
Communities
 As part of moving to
freer trade, support
development of
regional markets for
small-scale low-cost
technologies for
economies of scale
 Support exchange of
experiences among
countries
Recommendations: Way Forward
Development Banks, Donors
Actively support policy reform
Provide financial support to encourage
development of African industries in microAWM technologies
R&D by local (not foreign) private firms, research
institutions
“Smart subsidies”
Low-cost loans for manufacturers, retailers
“Social marketing” to popularize technologies
(Kickstart is a good example)
Emily’s triumph
16 Oct 2003:
Awareness!
catching the first rain
Oct-Nov 2003:
digging storage to catch
more
19 Jan 2004:
“We have buried the hunger”
Final Word
Supporting development
of an African marketdriven micro-AWM
industry can contribute
directly to reducing
poverty and hunger by
2015 while through
synergies, enhancing
the returns to largescale water
infrastructure
investments.
Let us not miss the
opportunity!
Thank you! Visit our website:
Food Agriculture and Natural
Resources Policy Analysis Network
www.fanrpan.org