Power Point Unit Six - Long Branch Public Schools

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Transcript Power Point Unit Six - Long Branch Public Schools

AP MACRO ECONOMICS
UNIT 6 : MR. LIPMAN
INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND
STABILIZATION POLICIES
MODULES 30-36
MODULE 30
LONG RUN IMPLICATIONS OF FISCAL
POLICY: DEFICITS AND THE PUBIC
DEBT
How does the Government Stabilizes the
Economy?
The Government has
two different tool
boxes it can use:
1. Fiscal PolicyActions by Congress to
stabilize the economy.
OR
2. Monetary PolicyActions by the Federal
Reserve Bank to
stabilize the economy.
4
Module 30 focuses on Fiscal Policy.
5
• A deficit is the amount by which annual
government spending exceeds tax revenues.
• The public debt is the total accumulation of all
past yearly deficits and surpluses.
– Some agencies of government hold some debt;
thus one agency of government owes money to
another.
– The rest of the debt is owed to investors (foreign
and domestic), and other countries
• In the past decade, foreign holdings have
doubled to just around 50% of debt owned by
the public, and over half of this is held by
Asian countries.
• Why such a rapid expansion of foreign
holdings since the 1990s?
– The reason seems to be that these countries are
buying debt to keep their currencies from rising
relative to the dollar.
• A surplus is the amount by which annual tax
revenues exceed government expenditures.
– In 2000, the budget surplus was $236.4 billion. By
2003, tax cuts, a recession, and new commitments
for national defense and homeland security had
turned the budget surpluses of 1998-2001 into a
deficit of roughly $400 billion for fiscal year 2004.
– In 2011, the budget deficit was over $1.5 Trillion
Contractionary Fiscal Policy (The BRAKE)
Laws that reduce inflation, decrease GDP
• Decrease Government Spending
• Tax Increases
• Combinations of the Two
Expansionary Fiscal Policy (The GAS)
Laws that reduce unemployment and increase GDP
(Close a Recessionary Gap)
• Increase Government Spending
• Decrease Taxes on consumers
• Combinations of the Two
11
Problems With
Fiscal Policy
12
Deficit Spending!!!!
•A Budget Deficit is when the government’s expenditures
exceeds its revenue for a fiscal year. The fiscal year for
the government runs from Oct. 1st to Sept. 30th.
•The National Debt is the accumulation of all the budget
deficits over time.
•If the Government increases spending without
increasing taxes they will increase the annual deficit and
the national debt.
Most economists agree that budget deficits are a
necessary evil because forcing a balanced budget would
not allow Congress to stimulate the economy.
13
14
15
• Servicing the debt requires taxing the general
public to pay interest to bondholders.
– This means that money is taken from those across
the income or wealth distribution and paid to
bond holders, who tend to be from the upper
class
If a nation defaults on its debt it will have a hard
time convincing future investors to purchase its
bonds.
Additional Problems with Fiscal Policy
1. Problems of Timing
• Recognition Lag- Congress must react to
economic indicators before it’s too late
• Administrative Lag- Congress takes time to pass
legislation
• Operational Lag- Spending/planning takes time
to organize and execute ( changing taxing is
quicker)
2. Politically Motivated Policies
• Politicians may use economically inappropriate
policies to get reelected.
• Ex: A senator promises more public works programs
when there is already an inflationary gap.
19
3. Crowding-Out Effect
• Government spending might cause unintended
effects that weaken the impact of the policy.
Example:
• We have a recessionary gap
• Government creates new public library. (AD increases)
• But consumers spend less on books (AD decreases)
Another Example:
• The government increases spending but must borrow
the money (AD increases)
• This increases the price for money (the interest rate).
• Interest rates rise so Investment falls. (AD decrease)
The government “crowds out” consumers
20
and/or investors
4. Net Export Effect
International trade reduces the effectiveness
of fiscal policies.
•
•
•
•
•
Example:
We have a recessionary gap so the government
spends to increase AD.
The increase in AD causes an increase in price level
and interest rates.
U.S. goods are now more expensive and the US
dollar appreciates…
Foreign countries buy less. (Exports fall)
Net Exports (Exports-Imports) falls, decreasing AD.
21
MODULE 31
MONETARY POLICY AND THE INTERST
RATE
Interest-Rate Effect
• When price level increases, lenders need
to charge higher interest rates to get a
REAL return on their loans.
• Higher interest rates discourage consumer
spending and business investment. WHY?
• An increase in prices leads to an increase in the
interest rate from so you are less likely to take out
loans to improve your business.
23
The FED adjusts the money supply by changing
any one of the following:
1. Changing Reserve Requirements (Ratios)
2. Lending Money to Banks & Thrifts
•Discount Rate
3. Open Market Operations
•Buying and selling Bonds
The FED is now chaired by Ben Bernanke.
24
• Open Market Operations is when the FED buys or
sells government bonds (securities).
• This is the most important and widely used
monetary policy
To increase the Money supply, the FED should
BUY
_________
government securities.
To decrease the Money supply, the FED should
SELL
_________
government securities.
How are you going to remember?
Buy-BIG- Buying bonds increases money supply
Sell-SMALL- Selling bonds decreases money supply
25
• When the Fed buys bonds, it adds to bank
reserves. This is called easy money,
expansionary monetary policy, or
quantitative easing.
– It is designed to increase excess reserves and
the money supply, and ultimately reduce
interest rates to stimulate the economy.
• The opposite of an expansionary policy is a
tight money, restrictive, or contractionary
monetary policy.
– Tight money policies are designed to shrink
income and employment, usually in the interest of
fighting inflation. The Fed brings about tight
monetary policy by selling bonds, thereby pulling
reserves from the financial system.
• Monetary authorities around the world have
tried an alternative to monetary rules by using
the approach of inflation targeting.
• This sets targets for the inflation rate, usually
around 2% per year. In January, 2012 the Fed
adopted this position as well.
• If inflation exceeds the target, contractionary
policy is employed; if inflation falls below the
target, expansionary policy is used.
• Today, monetary authorities set a target
interest rate and then use open market
operations to adjust reserves and keep the
federal funds rate near this level.
• The Fed’s interest target is the level that will
keep the economy near potential GDP and/or
keep inflationary pressures in check.
• Professor John Taylor of Stanford University
found that the Fed tended to follow a general
rule that has become known as the Taylor rule
for federal funds targeting:
federal funds target rate =
1 + (1.5 x inflation rate) + (0.5 x output gap)
{Output gap is current GDP – Potential GDP}
Problem with the rule is that it has a “lag” and
adjusts for past inflation but not future inflation
FRQ 2010 Form B
• 2. The central bank of the country of Sewell sells bonds on the
open market.
• (a) Assume that banks in Sewell have no excess reserves.
What is the effect of the central bank’s action on the amount
of customer loans that banks in Sewell can make?
• (b) Using a correctly labeled graph of the money market, show
the effect of the central bank’s action on the nominal interest
rate in Sewell.
• (c) What is the effect of the central bank’s action on each of
the following in Sewell?
– (i) Price level
– (ii) Real interest rate. Explain.
• (d) Given your answer in part (c)(ii), how is the international
value of Sewell’s currency, the ono, affected?
• Explain.
FRQ 2010 Form B- Ruberic
7 points (1 + 2 + 3 + 1)
• (a) 1 point: • One point is earned for stating that bank loans
will decrease.
• (b) 2 points:
• • One point is earned for a correctly labeled graph of the money market.
• • One point is earned for showing a leftward shift of the MS curve and an
increase in the nominal interest rate. (See graph on previous slide)
•
•
•
•
(c) 3 points:
• One point is earned for stating that the price level will fall.
• One point is earned for stating that the real interest rate will rise.
• One point is earned for the explanation that with an increase in the
nominal interest rate and a decrease in the price level, the real interest
rate increases.
• (d) 1 point:
• • One point is earned for stating that the ono will appreciate, because the
increase in the demand for Sewell’s financial assets causes an increase in
the demand for the ono.
MODULE 32
MONEY, OUTPUT, AND PRICES IN THE
LONG RUN
• Savers supply loanable funds to banks and
other financial intermediaries.
– The reward for not spending today is the interest
received on savings, enabling people to spend
more in the future.
– The supply of funds to the loanable funds market
is directly related to interest rates because at
higher rates of interest, savers are rewarded more
and are willing to supply more funds.
• The demand for loanable funds comes from
people who want to purchase goods and services,
such as taking
out a home mortgage,
or starting a business.
• Firms are borrowers, too. Firms may want to
invest in new plants, facilities, or research.
Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of
an Increase in the Money Supply
Increases in
the money
supply initially
lead to an
increase in
output,
but in the long
run increased
nominal wages
reduce SRAS
and lead only
to an
increased
price level.
The money market (where monetary policy has its effect on
the money supply) determines interest rates only in the short
run. In the long run, interest rates are determined in the
market for loanable funds.
Suppose economy is currently in LR equilibrium. If the Fed
were to conduct expansionary monetary policy, the interest
rate would fall. A lower interest rate would shift AD to the
right. In the short run, real GDP would increase, but so would
the aggregate price level.
Eventually nominal wages would rise in labor markets, shifting
SRAS to the left. Long-run equilibrium would be established
back at potential GDP and a higher price level.
So in the long run, expansionary monetary policy wouldn’t
increase real GDP, it would only cause inflation.
• monetary neutrality: changes in the
money supply have no real effects on the
economy. In the long run, the only effect
of an increase in the money supply is to
raise the aggregate price level by an
equal percentage. Economists argue that
money is neutral in the long run.
Money Neutrality
Changes in the Money Supply and
the Interest Rate in the Long Run
• In the short run, we have seen that an
increase in the MS causes short-term interest
rates to fall. But what happens in the long
run?
• In the long run, monetary neutrality insures
that the interest rate won’t change after a
change in the money supply.
Sample Question
• An increase in the money supply causes_____
in output in the short run, and ______in the
long run:
a) a decrease; an increase
b) an increase; an increase
c) no change; an increase
d) no change; no change
e) an increase; no change
Sample Question
• An increase in the money supply causes_____
in output in the short run, and ______in the
long run:
a) a decrease; an increase
b) an increase; an increase
c) no change; an increase
d) no change; no change
e) an increase; no change
Sample Question
• Contractionary monetary policy causes______
in the price level in the short run and
_______in the price level in the long run:
A) no change; a decrease
B) a decrease; a decrease
C) a decrease; no change
D) no change; no change
E) a decrease; an increase
Sample Question
• Contractionary monetary policy causes______
in the price level in the short run and
_______in the price level in the long run:
A) no change; a decrease
B) a decrease; a decrease
C) a decrease; no change
D) no change; no change
E) a decrease; an increase
Sample Question
• Suppose the economy is currently in long run
equilibrium at full employment levels of real
GDP. If the money supply increases, in the
long run, we would expect _______in the
price level, and ________in real GDP.
A) an increase; a decrease
B) an increase; an increase
C) a decrease; no change
D) no change; an increase
E) an increase; no change
Sample Question
• Suppose the economy is currently in long run
equilibrium at full employment levels of real
GDP. If the money supply increases, in the
long run, we would expect _______in the
price level, and ________in real GDP.
A) an increase; a decrease
B) an increase; an increase
C) a decrease; no change
D) no change; an increase
E) an increase; no change
Sample Question
• If the money supply increases by 10%, in the
long run:
A) Unemployment drops by 10%
B) the price level increases by 10%
C) real GDP increases by 10%
D) unemployment drops by 20%
E) the interest rate falls by 10%
Sample Question
• If the money supply increases by 10%, in the
long run:
A) Unemployment drops by 10%
B) the price level increases by 10%
C) real GDP increases by 10%
D) unemployment drops by 20%
E) the interest rate falls by 10%
Sample Question
• In the long run, an increase in the quantity of
money:
A) increases real output
B) increases prices but not long-run output
C) increases real interest rates but not long-run
output
D) has no impact on the economy
E) increases the unemployment rate but not longrun output
Sample Question
• In the long run, an increase in the quantity of
money:
A) increases real output
B) increases prices but not long-run output
C) increases real interest rates but not long-run
output
D) has no impact on the economy
E) increases the unemployment rate but not longrun output
Sample Question
• Money is neutral:
A) in the short run since it cannot alter the real
aggregate output
B) in both the short run and long run since it cannot
alter price levels
C) in the long run since it cannot alter the real
aggregate output
D) in the short run since it cannot alter the price
levels
E) in the long run since it cannot alter the real
interest rate
Sample Question
• Money is neutral:
A) in the short run since it cannot alter the real
aggregate output
B) in both the short run and long run since it cannot
alter price levels
C) in the long run since it cannot alter the real
aggregate output
D) in the short run since it cannot alter the price
levels
E) in the long run since it cannot alter the real
interest rate
Sample Question
• During periods of low inflation, the short-run
aggregate supply curve is:
A) Vertical
B) Horizontal
C) Upward sloping
D) Downward sloping
E) Backward bending
Sample Question
• During periods of low inflation, the short-run
aggregate supply curve is:
A) Vertical
B) Horizontal
C) Upward sloping
D) Downward sloping
E) Backward bending
Sample Question
• During periods of high inflation, the short-run
aggregate supply curve is:
A) Vertical
B) Horizontal
C) Upward Sloping
D) Downward Sloping
E) Back flipping off the high board
Sample Question
• During periods of high inflation, the short-run
aggregate supply curve is:
A) Vertical
B) Horizontal
C) Upward Sloping
D) Downward Sloping
E) Back flipping of the high board
MODULE 33
TYPES OF INFLATION, DISINFLATION
AND DEFLATION
Inflation
 The price level is the absolute level of a
price index.
 Measures of the price level include:
 Consumer Price Index (retail prices).
 Producer Price Index (wholesale prices).
 GDP Deflator (average price of all items in GDP).
 The rate of inflation is the annual rate of
increase in the price level.
Definition of Terms
Price Level
• Disinflation: A reduction in the rate of inflation.
Note that an economy going through disinflation may
still be facing inflation, but it will be at a declining
rate.
• Deflation: A decline in
Deflation
overall prices throughout
the economy. This is
the opposite of inflation.
Time
• Your attitude toward inflation will depend in part on
whether you live on a fixed income, whether you are
a creditor or debtor, and whether you have properly
anticipated inflation.
– Creditors may be harmed by unanticipated inflation
because both the principal on loans and interest payments
are usually fixed.
• Debtors benefit from unanticipated inflation;
the real value of their payments declines as
their wages rise with inflation.
– Many homeowners in the 1970s and 1980s saw the value
of their real estate rise from inflation while their mortgage
payments remained fixed. At the same time, average
incomes rose partly due to inflation.
– The result was that a smaller part of the typical family’s
income was needed to pay the mortgage, and thus the real
value of mortgages had declined.
The Inflation Tax
•Independent central banks issue fiat
money
•Monetizing the debt
•Seignorage
•Inflation Tax
The Treasury and the Federal Reserve work together. Treasury
issues debt to finance the government’s purchases of goods
and services, and the Fed monetizes the debt by creating
money and buying the debt back from the public through
open - market purchases of Treasury bills.
The Fed creates money out of thin air and uses it to buy
government securities from the private sector.
The Treasury pays interest on debt owned by the Federal
Reserve—but the Fed, by law, hands the interest payments it
receives on government debt back to the Treasury, keeping
only enough to fund its own operations.
An alternative way to look at this is to say that the right to print
money is itself a source of revenue. Economists refer to the
revenue generated by the government’s right to print money
as seignorage.
DEMAND-PULL INFLATION
“Too many dollars chasing too few goods”
DEMAND PULLS UP PRICES!!!
• Demand increases but supply stays the
same. What is the result?
• A Shortage driving prices up
• An overheated economy with
excessive spending but same amount
of goods.
COST-PUSH INFLATION
Higher production costs increase prices
A negative supply shock increases the costs of
production and forces producers to increase
prices.
Examples:
•Hurricane Katrina destroyed oil refineries and
causes gas prices to go up. Companies that use gas
increase their prices.
Cost-Push Inflation
HYPER INFLATION
Country and TimeZimbabwe, 2008
Annual Inflation Rate79,600,000,000%
Time for Prices to Double24.7 hours
Historic Inflation Rates
Sample Question
• According to the classical model of the price
level, an increase in the money supply will
create:
A) inflation with no long –run increase in real GDP
B) inflation and a long-run increase in real GDP
C) no inflation and a long-run increase in real GDP
D) deflation with no long-run increase in real GDP
E) disinflation with no long-run increase in real GDP
Sample Question
• According to the classical model of the price
level, an increase in the money supply will
create:
A) inflation with no long –run increase in real GDP
B) inflation and a long-run increase in real GDP
C) no inflation and a long-run increase in real GDP
D) deflation with no long-run increase in real GDP
E) disinflation with no long-run increase in real GDP
Sample Question
• The Fed monetizes the debt when it:
A) prints money and buys government debt from
the public
B) sells bonds
C) decreases the money supply
D) targets interest rates
E) increases taxes and reduces government
spending
Sample Question
• The Fed monetizes the debt when it:
A) prints money and buys government debt from
the public
B) sells bonds
C) decreases the money supply
D) targets interest rates
E) increases taxes and reduces government
spending
Sample Question
• Seignorage is:
A) the government’s cost of printing and coining $
B) the revenue generated by the government’s right
to print $
C) the money financial institutions make selling
government bonds to the FED when the FED
creates $
D) the revenue the government generates in tax
receipts
E) the revenue the government generates in interest
on lending to the public
Sample Question
• Seignorage is:
A) the government’s cost of printing and coining $
B) the revenue generated by the government’s right
to print $
C) the money financial institutions make selling
government bonds to the FED when the FED
creates $
D) the revenue the government generates in tax
receipts
E) the revenue the government generates in interest
on lending to the public
Sample Question
• The inflation tax refers to
A) moving into higher income tax brackets
B) the reduction in the real value of money when
inflation falls
C) the reduction in the real value of money when
inflation rises
D) the tax placed on inflation by the government
E) the increase in income tax revenues from a
growing economy
Sample Question
• The inflation tax refers to
A) moving into higher income tax brackets
B) the reduction in the real value of money when
inflation falls
C) the reduction in the real value of money when
inflation rises
D) the tax placed on inflation by the government
E) the increase in income tax revenues from a
growing economy
Sample Question
• When a central bank prints $ to pay
government debts, causing rising prices that
erode the purchasing power of money held by
the public, it is called:
A) a payroll tax
B) an excise tax
C) a currency tax
D) a budget tax
E) an inflation tax
Sample Question
• When a central bank prints $ to pay
government debts, causing rising prices that
erode the purchasing power of money held by
the public, it is called:
A) a payroll tax
B) an excise tax
C) a currency tax
D) a budget tax
E) an inflation tax
Sample Question
• When the output gap is __________,
reflecting an inflationary gap, the
unemployment rate is __________the natural
rate of unemployment
A) positive; above
B) negative; below
C) positive; below
D) negative; above
E) negative; equal to
Sample Question
• When the output gap is __________,
reflecting an inflationary gap, the
unemployment rate is __________the natural
rate of unemployment
A) positive; above
B) negative; below
C) positive; below
D) negative; above
E) negative; equal to
Sample Question
• The difference between real GDP and
potential GDP is known as the:
A) price gap
B) unemployment gap
C) trade gap
D) budget gap
E) output gap
Sample Question
• The difference between real GDP and
potential GDP is known as the:
A) price gap
B) unemployment gap
C) trade gap
D) budget gap
E) output gap
MODULE 34
INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYEMENT
THE PHILLIPS CURVE
• Lower unemployment tends to lead to higher
periods of inflation
• Higher inflation tends to lead to lower
unemployment.
THESE RULES ARE USUALLY REPRESENTED BY A
GRAPH KNOWN AS THE PHILLIPS CURVE
The Short-Run Phillips Curve
When SRAS increases along with AD, both the
unemployment and inflation rates fall. This is
seen as a downward shift of the SRPC.
When SRAS decreases along the AD, both the
unemployment and inflation rates rise. This is
seen as an upward shift of the SRPC.
•Short-Run Phillips Curve
•Positive Supply Shock brings
both lower inflation lower
unemployment
•A Negative Supply Shock will
bring higher inflation and
higher unemployment
The Short-Run Phillips Curve and Supply Shocks
•Expected Inflation will directly
affect the present inflation rate
•What determines expected
inflation?
•The expected rate of
inflation is the rate that
employers and workers
expect in the near future.
•An increase in expected
inflation shifts the short –
run Phillips Curve upward
LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE
The short run and long run effects of expansionary policies
• Most macroeconomists believe that there is
no long-run trade-off between lower
unemployment rates and higher inflation
rates. That is, it is not possible to achieve
lower unemployment in the long run by
accepting higher inflation.
LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE
•NAIRU
•LRPC
•Natural Rate Hypothesis
•Natural Rate = NAIRU
• The unemployment rate at which inflation
does not change over time—5% in the
previous graph, is known as the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment,
or NAIRU for short.
• Keeping the unemployment rate below the
NAIRU leads to ever-accelerating inflation and
cannot be maintained and therefore there is
no longrun tradeoff between unemployment
and inflation.
DISINFLATION WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH
UNEMPLOYMENT
Expected Inflation and the Short-Run Phillips Curve
KEY TERMS
• Core CPI: CPI excluding food and energy prices
• Zero Bound: Nominal Interest Rates cannot go
below zero
Liquidity Trap: When interest rates come close to
zero then monetary policy will become ineffective
since lenders will decrease desire to loan and savers
will decrease desire to save in banks.
The Zero Bound in U.S. History
Sample Question
• A Phillips Curve implies a negative relationship
between:
A) consumption and saving
B) inflation and prices
C) inflation and unemployment
D) consumption and inflation
E) aggregate price level and real GDP
Sample Question
• A Phillips Curve implies a negative relationship
between:
A) consumption and saving
B) inflation and prices
C) inflation and unemployment
D) consumption and inflation
E) aggregate price level and real GDP
Sample Question
• Each point on a Phillips Curve is a different
combination of:
A) price and quantity
B) the inflation rate and the unemployment rate
C) the interest rate and investment
D) savings and disposable income
E) aggregate price level and the sea monster
Sample Question
• Each point on a Phillips Curve is a different
combination of:
A) price and quantity
B) the inflation rate and the unemployment rate
C) the interest rate and investment
D) savings and disposable income
E) aggregate price level and the sea monster
Sample Question
• Suppose there is a supply shock due to a fall in
commodity prices, the short-run Phillips Curve will:
A) shift down
B) show an upward movement along the same curve
C) not be affected at all
D) shift up
E) show a downward movement along the same
curve
Sample Question
• Suppose there is a supply shock due to a fall in
commodity prices, the short-run Phillips Curve will:
A) shift down
B) show an upward movement along the same curve
C) not be affected at all
D) shift up
E) show a downward movement along the same
curve
Sample Question
• Suppose you are told that the short run
Phillips Curve has shifted upward. Which of
the following must have happened?
A) The AD curve has shifted to the right
B) The AD curve has shifted to the left
C) The SRAS curve has shifted to the right
D) The SRAS curve has shifted to the left
E) The LRAS curve has shifted to the right
Sample Question
• Suppose you are told that the short run
Phillips Curve has shifted upward. Which of
the following must have happened?
A) The AD curve has shifted to the right
B) The AD curve has shifted to the left
C) The SRAS curve has shifted to the right
D) The SRAS curve has shifted to the left
E) The LRAS curve has shifted to the right
Sample Question
• Suppose you are told that the short-run
Phillips Curve has shifted downward. Which
of the following must have happened?
A) The SRAS curve has shifted to the left
B) The SRAS curve has shifted to the right
C) The AD curve has shifted to the left
D) The AD curve has shifted to the right
E) The LRAS curve has shifted to the right
Sample Question
• Suppose you are told that the short-run
Phillips Curve has shifted downward. Which
of the following must have happened?
A) The SRAS curve has shifted to the left
B) The SRAS curve has shifted to the right
C) The AD curve has shifted to the left
D) The AD curve has shifted to the right
E) The LRAS curve has shifted to the right
MODULES 35 & 36
HISTORY AND ALTERNATIVE VIEWS
OF MACROECONOMICS
Adam Smith
1723-1790
Classical
vs.
Keynesian
John Maynard Keynes
112
1883-1946
113
Prior to the Great Depression
• The prevailing thought of economists before
the 1930s was that a laissez faire approach to
the economy was the best approach for
government.
– Competitive markets for labor, products, and
financial assets would lead to flexible wages,
prices, and interest rates that would keep the
economy humming along near full employment,
with only a minor recession here and there.
{the invisible hand theory}
• Before the Depression,
government spending
was roughly 10% of
national output.
• Today, that figure
has tripled to 30%.
• Thus representing the
growing size of government
• Most of the changes in post-Depression
economic thinking can be traced back to one
book, The General Theory of Employment,
Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes,
published in 1936.
– In this book, Keynes focused his attention on the
economy as a whole and on aggregate spending.
– He emphasized income, and not interest rates,
were the key to growing economy
John Maynard Keynes
• Keynes observed that as disposable income
increases, consumption will increase, though not as
fast as income. This approach to analyzing savings
differs sharply from the Classical approach, which
assumed the interest rate to be the principal
determinant of saving.
• Remember that the marginal propensity to consume
is the change in consumption associated with a given
change in income. The marginal propensity to save is
the change in saving associated with a given change
in income.
Classical Versus Keynesian Macroeconomics
Milton Friedman
• Brought about a change in thinking by
stressing that Monetary Policy and Monetary
Supply needed to play a key role in managing
the nations economy.
• This helped to increase importance of FED and
decrease importance of fiscal policy
Milton Friedman
Velocity of Money
• This is the ratio of nominal GDP to the Money
Supply. Essentially it is the number of times
the average dollar bill is spent in a year.
MxV = PxY
• M= Money Supply
• V = Velocity
P = Aggregate Price Level
Y = Real GDP
The Velocity of Money
THE MODERN CONSENSUS
Sample Question
• The school of economics that dominated
thinking prior to the Great Depression was
the:
A) business cycle theorists
B) classical school
C) post-Keynesian school
D) Marxists
E) monetarists
Sample Question
• The school of economics that dominated
thinking prior to the Great Depression was
the:
A) business cycle theorists
B) classical school
C) post-Keynesian school
D) Marxists
E) monetarists
Sample Question
• Which of the following is a characteristic of
the classical school of economics?
A) it emphasizes the short run
B) it emphasizes the flexibility of wages and
prices
c) potential output is a problem since the
economy cannot achieve it on its own
d) it advocates the use of discretionary fiscal
policy
Sample Question
• Which of the following is a characteristic of
the classical school of economics?
A) it emphasizes the short run
B) it emphasizes the flexibility of wages and
prices
c) potential output is a problem since the
economy cannot achieve it on its own
d) it advocates the use of discretionary fiscal
policy
Sample Question
• The beginning of a recession is determined by
the:
A) National Bureau of Economic Research
B) Treasury Department
C) Federal Reserve
D) Mr. Lipman
E) Council of Economic Advisors
Sample Question
• The beginning of a recession is determined by
the:
A) National Bureau of Economic Research
B) Treasury Department
C) Federal Reserve
D) Mr. Lipman
E) Council of Economic Advisors
Sample Question
• According to Keynesian Theory:
A) the long-run and short-run aggregate supply
curves are identical
B) a decrease in aggregate demand leads to
decreases in output and prices
C) a decrease in aggregate demand will decrease
prices, but not output
D) the short run is relatively unimportant
E) an economic recession will self-correct without
policy intervention
Sample Question
• According to Keynesian Theory:
A) the long-run and short-run aggregate supply
curves are identical
B) a decrease in aggregate demand leads to
decreases in output and prices
C) a decrease in aggregate demand will decrease
prices, but not output
D) the short run is relatively unimportant
E) an economic recession will self-correct without
policy intervention
Sample Question
• Because in the Keynesian model, prices and nominal
wages are ________, the short-run aggregate supply
curve is upward sloping and, as a result, an increase
in the money supply leads to __________in the
aggregate price level.
A) sticky; a less than proportional decrease
B) flexible; an equal proportional decrease
C) sticky; a less than proportional increase
D) flexible; an equal proportional increase
E) sticky; an equal proportional increase
Sample Question
• Because in the Keynesian model, prices and nominal
wages are ________, the short-run aggregate supply
curve is upward sloping and, as a result, an increase
in the money supply leads to __________in the
aggregate price level.
A) sticky; a less than proportional decrease
B) flexible; an equal proportional decrease
C) sticky; a less than proportional increase
D) flexible; an equal proportional increase
E) sticky; an equal proportional increase
Sample Question
• Keynesian economics emphasizes
________shifts in aggregate _________.
A) long-run; demand
B) long-run; supply
C) short-run; demand
D) short-run; supply
E) long-run; supply and demand
Sample Question
• Keynesian economics emphasizes
________shifts in aggregate _________.
A) long-run; demand
B) long-run; supply
C) short-run; demand
D) short-run; supply
E) long-run; supply and demand