Sustaining Economic Momentum in the Nation`s Journey to Prosperity

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Transcript Sustaining Economic Momentum in the Nation`s Journey to Prosperity

Sri Lanka was a sad victim of terrorism,
which sapped its energies for over 3 decades…
• Acute burden of terrorism felt nationwide since
1983
• Massive human cost of war with thousands of
lives lost and mutilated
• Key economic centres scathed
and destroyed
• Investor confidence severely
affected and economy was
engulfed in a vicious cycle
As a result, the economy is estimated to have suffered a 2% loss in
growth, annually…
2
In May 2009, the humanitarian operation successfully
defeated terrorism under the guidance of President
Mahinda Rajapaksa…
• Swift measures were taken to restore
normalcy in the war-torn areas
– Rapid demining
– Quick resettlement
– Counselling
– Rapid restoration of livelihood
– Continued investment in the
form of infrastructure
restoration and upgrade
The stage was set for Sri Lanka to embark on a journey that was
delayed for 30 years…
3
War-torn nations of the past have had mixed economic
growth since the end of similar long wars/internal
conflicts…
Per Capita GDP (at current prices) - (1980-2013)
Source: WEO Database, April 2014
Other nations, apart from Korea, have struggled to pace up…
4
South Korea is an interesting and special case study…
South Korea… THEN… in 1953
• War damages in South Korea were approximately
US$ 3.0 bn. This amount was almost equal to
estimated GNP for 1952 and 1953 combined. In
addition, about 1 million civilians were killed during
the war.
• Major economic reforms, foreign assistance, export
orientation and long-term development plans were
instrumental in achieving high growth momentum
of more than 10% growth by 1967.
• It was one of the world's fastest growing economies
from the early 1960s to the late 1990s.
The most significant factor in rapid industrialisation was the
adoption of an outward-looking strategy
5
6
…and NOW!!!
• Today, South Korea is one of the
world's wealthiest nations, and is a
G-20 major economy.
• It is a leading manufacturer and home
to some famous brands in the world
– Automobile
– Shipbuilding
– High-tech industries
Since the end of the conflict, the Sri Lankan economy has
achieved substantial progress in almost all macrofundamentals…
Unit
Real GDP Growth
(Avg. for 5 years ending)
2000
2005
2008
2009
2013
2014
(Proj)
Remarks
Substantially higher growth
trajectory
%
5.0
4.0
6.4
6.0
6.7
7.8
US$ bn
%
16.6
7.6
24.4
7.2
40.7
5.4
42.1
5.8
67.2
4.4
77.0
4.0
Inflation (Annual Avg.)
%
6.2
11.0
22.6
3.4
6.9
5.0
More than 5 years at single digit
levels
Current Account Deficit
% of GDP
6.4
2.7
9.5
0.5
3.9
2.1
Satisfactory progress being made
Remittances
US$ bn
1.2
2.0
2.9
3.3
6.4
7.0
Steady y-o-y growth, & 237%
increase in 8 years
FDI Inflows
US$ bn
US$ bn
Months of
Imports
0.2
1.0
0.3
2.7
0.9
2.6
0.6
5.4
1.4
7.5
1.9
8.3
1.7
3.7
2.2
6.3
5.0
5.2
Exchange Rate (Average)
Rs./US$
75.8
100.5
108.3
114.9
129.1
130.2*
Budget Deficit
% of GDP
9.5
7.0
7.0
9.9
5.9
5.2
Public Debt
% of GDP
96.9
90.6
81.4
86.2
78.3
74.3
%
12.9
19.1
8.5
18.6
16.7
14.0
No.
448
1,922
1,503
3,386
5,913
6,973*
Rs. bn
88.8
584.0
488.8
1,092.1
2,459.9
2,926.6*
‘000
400
549
438
448
1,275
1,593
GDP
Unemployment
Gross Official Reserves
Broad Money Growth
(M2b)
All Share Price Index
(ASPI)
Stock Market
Capitalisation
Tourist Arrivals
176% increase in 8 years!
Steady progress
Steady growth
Consistent improvement and
steady progress
Stable levels maintained
Important progress towards
fiscal consolidation
Moving steadily towards greater
sustainability
Close to projected levels
Reflects strong corporate sector
performance
Reflects peace dividend and
corporate sector vibrancy
Remarkable increase after the
conflict
* As at 14 August 2014
7
In Sri Lanka, the past 4 years (i.e. the post-war period)
were the only HIGH GROWTH + LOW INFLATION years in
the post-1977 period…
8
indicates year
Source: Road Map, 2014
South Korea’s success story is one to be admired and emulated…
It took South Korea nearly 40 years after their war to increase
their per capita income to around US$ 7,000
Sri Lanka targets to reach that milestone by 2020… 11 years after its 30 year war…
At the time of the end of the humanitarian operation in
2009, the Sri Lankan GDP was dominated by the Western
Province…
Provincial Gross Domestic Product (at Current Market Prices) - 2009
60
Western
Growth: 10.6 %
50
Contribution to growth: 50.2%
Contribution to the GDP Growth (%)
Rs. 2,216.3 bn
40
30
20
Southern
Central
North Western
10
Uva
Sabaragamuwa
North Central
-
5
Eastern
Growth: 13.4 %
Contribution to growth: 7.8 %
Rs. 279.4 bn
Northern
Growth: 12.1 %
Contribution to growth: 4.0 %
Rs. 155.8 bn
10
15
Growth (%)
Note: The size of the bubble represents the GDP of the Province
20
25
30
9
By 2013, the remarkable progress of the Northern and
Eastern Provinces has changed the GDP composition,
materially…
10
Provincial Gross Domestic Product (at Current Market Prices) - 2012
60
Contribution to the GDP Growth (%)
50
Western
Growth: 13.7 %
40
Contribution to growth: 38.3%
Rs. 3,292.3 bn
30
Southern
20
Eastern
Growth: 25.0 %
Contribution to growth: 9.1 %
Rs. 474.1 bn
Central
10
North Western
Sabaragamuwa
Uva
-
5
10
15
Growth (%)
Note: The size of the bubble represents the GDP of the Province
North Central
20
Northern
Growth: 25.9 %
Contribution to growth: 6.1 %
Rs. 305.5 bn
25
30
The Government’s mega-scale infrastructure development
plan has enhanced the country’s internal connectivity and
productive capacity substantially…
Road development projects
Port development projects
The Southern Expressway Project - 126 km
The South Colombo Harbour Project
Northern Railway Project - 146 km
The Hambantota Port Development Project
• Phase 1 – Completed in 2011
• Phase 2 – Completed in March 2014
• Railway line from Omanthai to Pallai was completed in
March 2014
• Railway line up to Kankasanthurai and Thalaimannar to be
completed by 2014
The Colombo-Katunayake Expressway - 26 km
• Completed in October 2013
The Colombo Outer Circular Highway Project - 29 km
• Phase 1 – Completed in March 2014
• Phase 2 – Completion by 2015
• Phase 3 – Completion by 2018
Northern Expressway
• Feasibility study in progress
Kandy-Badulla Alternate Highway Project - 34 km
• Feasibility study done
Power projects
900 MW Norochcholai Coal Power Plant
• Phase 1: (300 MW) – Commissioned
• Phase 2: Unit 1 (300 MW) – Commissioned
Unit 2 (300 MW) – Completion by November 2014
120 MW Uma Oya Hydro Power Project
• Completion by 2015
500 MW Sampur Coal Power Project
• Completion by end 2017
20 MW Moragahakanda and Kaluganga Reservoir Project
• In Progress
11
• South Container Terminal - Commissioned in August 2013
• East Container Terminal – Completion by end 2014
• Phase 1 – Completed
• Phase 2 – Completion by 2015
The Oluvil Port Development Project
• Opened in September 2013
The Kankasanthurai Port Development Project
• In Progress
Airport development projects
Second International Airport at Mattala
• Opened in March 2013
BIA Expansion Project
• To be completed by 2016
Domestic Airport Development – Ampara, Koggala, Batticaloa,
Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Sigiriya and Jaffna
• In Progress
Ratmalana Airport was converted into a city airport
accommodating international corporate flights
Ongoing rural infrastructure development projects
Gama Neguma, Maga Neguma, Small Irrigation projects and
Kirigammana projects
Several mega hotel projects, condominiums, shopping
malls, development of Northern and Eastern Provinces,
and water supply projects
By 2015, Sri Lanka’s per capita income is expected to
surpass US$ 4,000 while by 2016, the country’s GDP
would reach US$ 100 bn…
$4,240
(Projected)
$3,280
$2,836
$981
2011
GDP US$ 59.2 bn
2016
2015
2013
2003
GDP US$ 18.9 bn
$4,825
(Projected)
GDP US$ 67.2 bn
GDP
GDP
$ 88.7 bn
$ 101.8 bn
12
13
With the goals for 2016
set to be achieved,
the focus now shifts to
Sri Lanka: 2020
Sri Lanka: 2020 would have a GDP of around US$ 150 bn,
a US$ 7,000+ per capita income, and sound
macroeconomic fundamentals…
• Economic growth averaging around 8% from 2015 onwards
• Inflation at the lower end of mid-single digits
• Poverty at very low levels, with abject poverty having been
eradicated
• Unemployment limited to the natural unemployment levels
• A debt to GDP level around 50%
• Current account at surplus with foreign reserves growing faster
• A Sri Lankan rupee that has appreciated gently over the years,
from 2015 to 2020
14
Sri Lanka: 2020 business outlook would have improved
significantly…
15
• Doing Business ranking among the first 20 countries
• Sovereign being rated at investment grade with positive outlook
• Disparities among lagging districts reduced significantly with
considerable contribution from all provinces to economic growth
• Economic growth spurred by modern infrastructure
• Sri Lankan ports and airports among the more popular and busy
international ports and airports in the region
• Productivity levels improved to higher levels with better skilled
labour force
• Advanced technology used in industry, supported by an
intelligent workforce
• Strong work ethic being practiced by a large segment of the
workforce
Sri Lanka: 2020 real economy too, would have undergone
a paradigm shift…
16
• Economy would be more balanced, with foreign exchange
•
•
•
•
•
•
earnings greater than expenditure
The “5 Hubs ++” would have progressed quite well, and each hub
as well as existing drivers of the economy would be operating at
enhanced levels
Tourism sector would be catering to about 4.5 million tourists
Worker remittances would be mainly from a skilled and semiskilled labour force, treated with greater care, dignity and respect
Financial sector would be stable and would be having a presence
in the region, providing services in Asia
Sri Lankan business conglomerates would be enjoying serious
business relationships with key Asian, European and US
counterparts
The Colombo and major city skylines would have undergone
significant changes
Sri Lanka: 2020 macroeconomic framework would reflect
several new drivers in the GDP computation tables…
2020 GDP
2013 GDP
Agriculture
Agriculture
Fishing
Forestry
Livestock
Industry
Mining and Quarrying
Apparel
Other Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Oil and Gas Exploration
Marine and Aquatic Resources
Technology and Innovation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport
Banking
Communication and IT
Insurance
Real Estate
Healthcare
Entertainment
Education Services
Ownership of Dwellings
Government Services
Private Services
• A more modern and
high yielding
Agriculture sector of
US$ 10 bn
(6.7% of GDP)
(2013: US$ 7.2 bn)
• A more innovative
and advanced
Industry sector of
US$ 50 bn
(33.3% of GDP)
(2013: US$ 21.8 bn)
• A more broad-based
and dynamic
Services sector of
US$ 90 bn
(60.0% of GDP)
(2013: US$ 38.1 bn)
17
Sri Lanka: 2020 would have greater emphasis on export 18
of services…
External Account Targets & Projections for 2016 and 2020
(Per Annum Value, US$ bn)
–
–
–
–
–
Tourism services
IT/BPO services
Aviation services
Maritime services
Knowledge economy services
Item
Merchandise Exports
of which
Tea
Rubber
Textiles & Garments
Rubber products
Gems, Diamonds & Jewellery
2013
2016
2020
10.4
15.9
21.4
1.5
0.1
4.5
0.8
0.4
2.2
0.2
5.6
1.2
1.0
2.5
0.3
8.0
1.5
1.5
Services Exports
of which
Earnings from tourism
Port and Airport related services
IT/BPO services
Oil and Gas
4.7
9.3
12.3
1.7
1.0
0.6
-
4.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
6.0
2.0
2.0
3.0
Workers’ remittances
Foreign Direct Investment
Long term loan inflows
Government
Private sector
6.4
1.4
8.3
2.8
10.5
4.3
1.6
0.7
2.2
1.0
2.7
1.2
Sri Lanka: 2020 would have delivered several new
National Mileposts and Targets…
National Mileposts
Poverty:
Unemployment:
Acute Malnutrition amongst
children under 5 years:
Electricity coverage:
Literacy:
Computer Literacy:
Life Expectancy:
New Highways:
Mono rails:
Entire road network:
Public investment:
National Savings/investment gap:
Less than 1%
Less than 3%
Less than 3%
100%
100%
90%
Above 80 yrs. for both male and female
Additional 311 km
To be initiated in 2015
All weather roads with 100% rural accessibility
8% of GDP
0.5% of GDP
Market based Targets
Value
Stock Market Capitalisation:
US$ 150 billion
Corporate bond market:
US$ 30 billion
Bank assets:
Rs. 18 trillion
19
Sri Lanka: 2020 would have convinced all doubting
nations that the Humanitarian Operation of 2006-2009
was a legitimate and vital operation that led to…
• The total elimination of terrorism and the eradication
of its ruthless top leadership
• The release of nearly 300,000 civilians held hostage by
the terrorists, who were made to support the terror
and combat machinery of the LTTE
• The rehabilitation of nearly 12,000 captured LTTE
cadres, to re-integrate with society and to resume
normal lives
• The reunion of nearly 600 child soldiers
who were recruited for combat, with
their parents
• The de-mining and reconstruction of the devastated
Northern Province, and the resettlement of those who
were driven across the entire Province by the LTTE
20
Sri Lanka: 2020 targets would obviously
be challenging, and many stiff hurdles
would need to be surmounted...
What needs
to be done?
21
Sound macro-economic fundamentals and trends would
need to be maintained, even if the global environment is
tough…
Indicator
Unit
Actual
2009
2014
Projections
2016
2020
Real Sector
GDP Growth
Per Capita GDP at Market Prices
%
US$
3.5
7.8
8.3
8.0
2,057
3,719
4,825
7,500
Inflation (GDP Deflator)
%
5.9
6.0
5.0
4.5
Unemployment
%
5.8
4.0
4.0
3.0
% of GDP
24.4
31.0
33.1
36.5
% of GDP
-7.4
-9.5
-7.2
-4.5
Exports of Goods and Services
US$ bn
9.0
17.6
25.2
33.6
Imports of Goods and Services
US$ bn
11.7
23.2
29.5
37.3
% of GDP
-0.5
-2.1
0.1
0.5
US$ bn
2.7
1.7
2.9
3.0
Budget Deficit
% of GDP
9.9
5.2
3.8
3.0
Government Debt
% of GDP
86.2
74.3
65.0
50.0
Gross Investment
External Sector
Trade Gap
Current Account Balance
Overall Balance
Fiscal Sector
22
The Economic Diversification Programme would need to
continue, based on the ‘5 Hubs ++’ concept…
• Develop renewable energy sources
• Oil exploration and production –
(Mannar, Cauvery, Southern waters)
• Develop oil trade related ancilliary
services including gas
23
• Sri Lanka as a top centre in the region for commercial
services
• Growth of ports and tourism will catalyse
the development of Sri Lanka’s commercial
sector
• Second international airport at
Mattala
•
Colombo – Container mega hub
•
Hambantota – Free port, Service
and Industrial port declared as a
“Free Port”
•
Galle – Leisure Port
• Upgrading of domestic
airports
•
Trincomalee – Port-related
industries and Port City
• Colombo as a regional
logistics and services hub
•
Oluvil – Commercial and
fisheries
•
Kankasanthurei and Point Pedro –
Regional ports
•
•
•
•
IT literacy and internet access for all
Creation of knowledge-based jobs
Promotion of research and innovation
Sri Lanka as an “education” destination
Accredited foreign universities in Sri Lanka
• Modernisation and the 2nd
Runway at BIA
• Arrivals target of 4.5 mn by 2020
• Earnings from Tourism
– to increase to US$ 6.0 bn by 2020
Country-wide infrastructure development would need
to provide the necessary impetus for investments…
• Significant improvements to the macro
economy are expected through infrastructure
development
• Rapid advancement in physical infrastructure
is expected to support the growth momentum
in the medium term
• New growth sectors would need to be based
around newly developed transport, port,
aviation and commercial hubs
24
Doing Business Indicators improvements and investment
grade sovereign rating upgrades would need to be focused
upon…
2012
2013
2014
129
2020
122
116 120
136 133
132 131 134
132 130
108
89 83 85
20
World Bank Group’s
Doing Business
Survey
Sri Lanka(B+/B1/BB-)
2011
Indonesia(BB+/Baa3/BBB-) Bangladesh(BB-/Ba3/-)
2012
2013
India(BBB-/Baa3/BBB-)
2020
130 130 132
107
116 115
97
Philippines(BB/Ba3/BB)
124 123 119
108
115
107
97
81
30
The Index of
Economic
Freedom
Sri Lanka(B+/B1/BB-)
Indonesia(BB+/Baa3/BBB-) Bangladesh (BB-/Ba3/-)
India(BBB-/Baa3/BBB-)
For 2020, Sri Lanka
would strive to be
among the first 20
countries in the
Doing Business
Ranking and would
strive to have an
investment grade
sovereign rating
with a positive
outlook
Philippines(BB/Ba3/BB)
Targets for Improvements in Sovereign Ratings
BBB-
BBB
BB-
BB
2014
2016
2018
2020
Fitch
BBB-
BBB
B+
BB
2014
2016
2018
2020
S&P
25
Ba2
Baa3
Baa2
B1
2014
2016
2018
2020
Moody’s
The financial sector would need to be developed and
sustained in order to become deeper and more liquid…
•
The ongoing consolidation process would result in Sri Lankan financial institutions
transforming towards being stable, large scale, globally competitive financial institutions
2016 Targets
2020 Targets
•
At least 5 banks to have an asset base in excess of Rs. 1 tn
•
At least 3 banks to have an asset base in excess of Rs. 2 tn
•
Large state banks to have a regional and /or global presence
•
At least five banks to have a regional or global presence
•
Few specialised banks to finance regional development
activities
•
Well established off-shore banking operation centre under
the commercial hub
•
Smallest bank to have an asset base of over Rs. 100 bn
•
Well established arbitration centre in Colombo for financial
sector dispute resolutions
•
Finance companies limited at 20 and the smallest company
to have an asset base of Rs. 20 bn
•
Strong NBFI sector backed by the banking system
•
Local banks playing a key role in social security products
•
•
26
Capital would need to be more competitive, and Sri Lanka would need to offer a safe
environment with reasonable returns
Public debt issuance would need to be streamlined with new issuances, also focused on
developing the capital markets and supporting investment requirements of
superannuation funds of the country
The labour force would need to be developed with a
special focus on productivity, and the inculcating of a
strong work ethic…
• The issue of changing demographics would need to be
addressed
–
–
–
–
Ageing population and high retirement costs
Increased expenditure on healthcare
Ensuring adequate female labour force participation
Loss of healthy and experienced persons to the workforce
due to current retirement practices
• Focus on increasing labour productivity
• Ensure engagement of female labour force participation in
the workforce
• Minimise underemployment and labour market
misalignment
• Introduce flexi-hours at the work place
• Consider restructuring the payment cycle, including the
payroll system, in line with those followed by advanced
economies, to increase and smoothen consumption levels
of the workforce
27
28
The private sector would need to be continuously
facilitated to become even more vibrant and enthusiastic…
• A dynamic private sector that does not hesitate to engage in
new ventures and investments is the way forward to 2020
• Transparent mechanisms with proper administration and due
process
• Strong legal frameworks that provide swift recourse at times of
remedial action
• Fundamentally sound public and private sector institutions, and
strong regulatory authorities
• Vibrant payments and settlement systems with suitable infusion
of new technologies
29
A continued flow of capital investment along with a
substantial improvement in productivity would be required
over the next several years...
• A steady improvement in investment to GDP ratio
reaching 36.5% by 2020 is required
• Investments need to be attracted from both local
and foreign sources during the next few years
• Areas in which foreign funds could be introduced:
–
–
–
–
–
FDI
Capital inflows: portfolio and government securities
Commercial borrowings
Bilateral funding opportunities
Investment treaties and investments with
counterpart governments
The notorious “middle-income trap” would need to be
avoided…
30
• Increased wage pressures may present a challenge to
maintaining price stability
• Possibility of wider disparity among income classes, as
may be reflected by a widening of the Gini coefficient
would need to be addressed
• Declining labour productivity levels as faced by certain
middle income countries would need to be responded to
And most importantly, continued political stability and
policy consistency would need to be ensured…
• The positive political environment since 2006 helped to effectively steer the
economy out of global crises and turbulent times in the recent past
• In the future too,
implementation of
progressive economic
policies would require
political support at
times of challenges
• Investors would also
need to be assured of
policy consistency so
that they are able to
commit themselves to
long-term, large-scale
investments
31
For this purpose, the Diaspora-driven and unhelpful UNHRC
Resolutions would need to be countered with International
Humanitarian Law provisions and actual events…
• The following key principles of International Humanitarian Law, seem
to have been blatantly ignored when the US led UNHRC resolution
was moved against Sri Lanka:
– The Principle of Distinction
– The Principle of Proportionality
– The Principle of Necessity
– The Principle of Government’s Responsibility to Protect its civilians and
free them from the clutches of the terrorist group that was holding the
civilian hostage
• The number of deaths during the final period of the conflict has been
based on speculative and sensationalist “numbers games” by certain
UN groups and those need to be countered once-and-for-all
• Many major weaknesses, bias and gaps are prevalent in the UN Panel
of Experts Report (Darusman Report), which makes that report
highly unreliable. Hence, it must be countered that such report must
not be used to frame any charges or come to conclusions against the
Sri Lankan armed forces or the Government
32
At the same time, a return to the “Conflict Trap” must
be avoided at any cost…
• Empirical evidence suggests that about 40% of post-war
countries revert back to civil war within a decade
(Collier et al., 2008)
• Countries with a violent past are more likely to experience a
new conflict (Walter, 2011)
• It has also been highlighted that economic recovery is an
important determinant of lasting peace
– Higher growth rates prolong the duration of peace and therefore helps
in stabilising the economy (Collier et al., 2008)
Hence, economic policies must progress hand in hand
with measures by the Government and armed forces, to
ensure sustained peace…
33
National security would also need to be ensured for
Sri Lanka to establish itself as a major Maritime and
Aviation Hub in the world…
34
• Chaos in the naval and aviation fronts of most nations have
led to uncertainty and skepticism around the world
– Air space issues in Ukraine and Iraq
– Maritime piracy in Somalia
• Concerted efforts will need to be taken by the armed
forces and relevant authorities to ensure safety and
promote Sri Lanka as a safe hub for maritime and aviation
related activity
In addition, the military’s role as a “Development
Partner” in peace time would need to continue…
• The military has played a commendable role on the development of
Colombo and the greater metro Colombo area in order to improve the
vibrancy of the commercial capital in the quest to become a
Commercial Hub
– The Dutch Hospital Shopping Precinct
– The Race Course Shopping Complex
– The Arcade Independence Square Shopping Complex
• The prevailing peaceful and people-friendly environment has helped
Sri Lanka to attract tourists in large numbers, placing the nation on
track to become a Tourism Hub
35
In that regard, the military experience, training and
technical know-how would be handy, and must be made
use of…
• Development operations are generally expedited by
co-operation among the military, civilians and NGOs
• Officers trained both locally and internationally can
be a good source of information for research and
development
• Vital spokespersons to educate the public on various
topics such as the benefits of peace, survival, etc.
• It can also help foster relationships with other
nations, especially through the provision of military
personnel as Peace Corps
36
Special focus would also need to be given to deter Cyber
Terrorism…
37
• Despite the suppression of terrorism within borders, LTTE
remnants still operate at large through executing cyber
attacks
• Critical installations, which would be increasingly dependent
on IT with development, must guard against attacks in the
future
• Attacks on such installations could impede economic activity
thereby impacting development and growth
Therefore, ensuring cyber security would be
of paramount importance for Sri Lanka as a
growing economy as well as a nation that
has successfully defeated terrorism…
Sri Lanka: 2020 is surely taking shape as reflected
in Colombo’s new and emerging skyline…
38
Source: Report by Ernst & Young, 2013
While focusing on Sri Lanka: 2020, a longer term vision,
whereby Sri Lanka moves to the “High Income” category
by 2040, must now enter the planning horizon…
Sri Lanka: Now
US$ 3,280
Sri Lanka: 2020
39
Sri Lanka: 2040
Middle Income
Lower
Middle
Income
4,085
1,035
Low
Income
Congo,
Dem. Rep.
(230) India Philippines
(1,580) (2,500)
Thailand
(5,210)
Upper Middle
Income
High Income
12,615
South
Africa
(7,610)
Malaysia
(9,820)
Chile
(14,310)
Rep. of
Korea
(22,670)
Switzerland Bermuda
(104,590)
(80,970)
Norway
(98,860)
World Bank Categorisation:
2012 GNI per capita, calculated based on World Bank Atlas method