Transcript Fighting the Ebola virus

DEE 2015 Conference, Birmingham, 10 – 11 September, 2015
Fighting the Ebola Virus – an
example of Qualitative Risk
Modelling in a Resource-constrained
Environment
John Houston and Madhu Acharyya
Glasgow Caledonian University
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• Teaching-based model
 MSc / BA Risk Management
 Careers as Risk Analysts & Managers
• Varying background / abilities in…
 …Quantitative Methods & Statistics
 …Abstraction & Modelling Skills
• We cover
 Excel & Basic Statistics
 Constrained Optimisation
 Monte-Carlo
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• Use simplified, real, topical
examples ….
 Increase relevance & students’
motivation
 Develop generic skills and build
confidence
 ‘Spark’ ideas & creativity
• Topics….
 Fire Risk, Building Demolition Risk
 Project completion (2012 Olympics)
 Bank Failure / Stress Testing ..
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• Qualitative Risk problems….
 Consider Risk Factors…
 Score Risk Factors…
 Total Factor Scores → Qualitative Risk
Class
 Mitigations (% reduction in Score)
 Offer mitigation s.t. budget constraint
 Aim : maximise Risk Class reductions
• Ebola ‘problem’….
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• Risk Factors….
 ‘Macroeconomic’ Factors (GDP, Literacy
Rates, Defence & Health spending…)
 Regional Factors (Distance from Capital,
Population Densities ….)
Table 2 Ebola Problem : Qualitative Risk Classes
Table 1 Ebola Risk : Location to Capital City Risk component
Location
Risk Score
Adjacent
10
Close
Distant
Risk Category
Threshold Risk
Score
1.
Moderately Serious
0
50
2.
3.
Serious
Very Serious
400
750
100
4.
Extremely Serious
900
• Initial Score & Class for each Region
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• Mitigations …..
 Ebola Treatment Centres (ETC)
 Burial & Sanitisation Teams (BST)
 Public Education Programmes (PEPL & PEPH)
• Effectiveness & Costs….
 ETC : effectiveness contingent on number
already in the Region. Cost : extremely
large c/w others (deliberate …)
 BST : effectiveness contingent on teams per
km2
 PEP : effectiveness : Low or High
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• Results
 Construct model & run for an
allotted time ….
Interventions
ETCs to be built
Burial &
Sanitization
teams
Table 5 Summary Results: all areas
People
Spend
reached
per
#
Cost ($m)
(m)
person
23
$3,679
18.679
$196.96
2,189
24 (High)
PEP
27 (Low)
Total Spent $3,810.17m
$1.58
$129.59
48.444
36.337
$0.03
$3.57
Table 6 Risk Categories before- and after Interventions
% of
total
Risk Categories
96.6%
Before
After
Moderately Serious
0
25
Serious
32
28
Very Serious
2
11
Extremely Serious
30
0
0.0%
3.4%
Total Unspent $189.83m
• Consider ethical issues
 Can we really consider not building
any ETCs ? ….
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• Consider practical issues ….
Ebola Simulation: Time to find optimal outcome
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
00:00:00
00:18:00
00:36:00
00:54:00
Time Elapsed (hh:mm:ss)
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