Transcript Swiss Franc Valuation Nation

Swiss Franc
Valuation Nation
Presented By:
Maggie O’Connell
Colleen Traeger
David Terschluse
Sean McConnell
And we are not John Stiver
Economic Growth
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Current GDP at $250
billion (289.75B CHF)
Recent GDP growth
followed ’01-’03
recession
Predicted 2.1%
growth for ’05
Net assets exceed
GDP at 135%
Money Growth and Trade
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Imposed ceiling on
inflation at 2%
Predicted ’05 inflation
growth – 0.8%
Large Current Account
and trade surpluses
Fiscal account deficit of
2.5% in ’04 due to
significant influx of
investment
Economy holds about
35% of world’s offshore
funds
CHF Facts
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Managed floating fiat currency, backed by
gold and other currency holdings
Most stable by reputation
Unlikely EU member
Significant appreciation during US ’70s-’80s
inflation, depreciation during ’90s
Appreciation, along with Euro, ever since
9/11/01
Technical Analysis*
Resistance
Main Trendline
Support
Resistance
Channel Line
New Main
Trendline?
*Swiss Franc per US $
Support
• Since September 2004, the Franc has appreciated in value relative to the dollar
• Most recent breakthrough of main trendline shows continued appreciation
Cheese Anyone?
Our Cheesy Predictions
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Modest appreciation
Mitigation of appreciation with low
interest rates
Possible peak and change of trend
Possible depreciation due to
overvaluation of CHF according to
PPP
Analyst Comments
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Previous bottom and the Fibonacci support may give another
upward movement from 1.1620-60 range. – Rahul Chandra, Forex
strategist
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USD/CHF is in a downtrend directed by 1H exponential
moving averages. Volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel
and form the trend. Should continue to1.1750. – Arnaud Jeulin,
Mataf.net strategist
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Price dipped marginally bellow our support, and given the
bullish divergences we feel there is good case for the
resumption of upside. – Iam Copsey, FX-Strategy currency strategist