Transcript Chapter 7: Putting All Markets Together: The AS

CHAPTER
7
Putting All Markets
Together: The
AS-AD Model
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
7-1
Aggregate Supply
 The aggregate supply relation captures the
effects of output on the price level. It is
derived from the behavior of wages and
prices.
 Recall the equations for wage and price
determination from chapter 6:
W  P e F (u, z)
P  (1  )W
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Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deriving the Aggregate
Supply Relation
 Step 1: Eliminate the nominal wage from:
W  P e F (u, z) and P  (1  )W, then:
P  P (1  ) F (u, z)
e
In words, the price level depends on the
expected price level and the unemployment
rate. We assume that  and z are constant.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
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Olivier Blanchard
Deriving the Aggregate
Supply Relation
 Step 2: Express the unemployment rate in
terms of output:
U L N
N
Y
u

 1
 1
L
L
L
L
Therefore, for a given labor force, the higher is
output, the lower is the unemployment rate.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deriving the Aggregate
Supply Relation
 Step 3: Replace the unemployment rate in the
equation obtained in step one:
Y 

P  P (1   ) F  1  , z

L 
e
In words, the price level depends on the
expected price level, Pe, and the level of
output, Y (and also , z, and L, but we take
those as constant here).
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Properties of the AS Relation
Y 

P  P (1   ) F  1  , z

L 
e
 The AS relation has two important properties:
1. An increase in output leads to an increase in the
price level. This is the result of four steps:
1. Y   N 
2. N   u 
3. u  W 
4. W   P 
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Properties of the AS Relation
Y 

P  P (1   ) F  1  , z

L 
e
 The AS relation has two important properties:
2. An increase in the expected price level leads, one
for one, to an increase in the actual price level.
This effect works through wages:
1. P e   W 
2. W   P 
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Aggregate Supply
The Aggregate Supply
Curve
Given the expected
price level, an increase
in output leads to an
increase in the price
level. If output is equal
to the natural level of
output, the price level is
equal to the expected
price level.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
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Olivier Blanchard
Properties of the AS curve
1. The AS curve is upward sloping. As explained
earlier, an increase in output leads to an increase in
the price level.
2. The AS curve goes through point A, where Y = Yn
and P = Pe. This property has two implications:
1. When Y > Yn, P > Pe.
2. When Y < Yn, P < Pe.
3. An increase in Pe shifts the AS curve up, and a
decrease in Pe shifts the AS curve down.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Aggregate Supply
The Effect of an
Increase in the
Expected Price
Level on the
Aggregate Supply
Curve
An increase in the
expected price level
shifts the aggregate
supply curve up.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
7-2
Aggregate Demand
 The aggregate demand relation captures the
effect of the price level on output. It is derived
from the equilibrium conditions in the goods
and financial markets.
 Recall the equilibrium conditions for the goods
and financial markets described in chapter 5:
IS relation: Y  C(Y  T )  I (Y , i )  G
M
LM relation:
 YL(i )
P
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Olivier Blanchard
Aggregate Demand
The Derivation of the Aggregate
Demand Curve
An increase in the price level
leads to a decrease in output.
 P 
M
 i    demand   Y
P
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Olivier Blanchard
Aggregate Demand
Changes in monetary or fiscal
policy—or more generally in any
variable, other than the price
level, that shift the IS or the LM
curves—shift the aggregate
demand curve.
M

Y  Y
, G, T 
 P

( ,  ,  )
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Olivier Blanchard
Aggregate Demand
Shifts of the Aggregate
Demand Curve
An increase in government
spending increases output
at a given price level,
shifting the aggregate
demand curve to the right.
A decrease in nominal
money decreases output at
a given price level, shifting
the aggregate demand
curve to the left.
M

Y  Y
, G, T 
 P

( ,  ,  )
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Olivier Blanchard
Equilibrium in the Short
Run and in the Medium Run
7-3
Y 

AS Relation P  P (1   ) F  1  , z

L 
e
M

AD Relation Y  Y 
, G, T 
 P

 Equilibrium depends on the value of Pe. The
value of Pe determines the position of the
aggregate supply curve, and the position of
the AS curve affects the equilibrium.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
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Olivier Blanchard
Equilibrium in the Short Run
The Short Run
Equilibrium
The equilibrium is given
by the intersection of the
aggregate supply curve
and the aggregate
demand curve. At point
A, the labor market, the
goods market, and
financial markets are all
in equilibrium.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
From the Short Run
to the Medium Run
e
Y

Y

P

P
 At point A,
n
 Wage setters will revise
upward their
expectations of the
future price level. This
will cause the AS curve
to shift upward.
 Expectation of a higher
price level also leads to
a higher nominal wage,
which in turn leads to a
higher price level.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
From the Short Run
to the Medium Run
 The adjustment ends
onceY  Yn and P  P e .
Wage setters no longer
have a reason to
change their
expectations.
 In the medium run,
output returns to the
natural level of output.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
From the Short Run
to the Medium Run
The Adjustment of Output over
Time
If output is above the natural
level of output, the AS curve
shifts up over time, until output
has decreased back to the
natural level of output.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
7-4
The Effects of a
Monetary Expansion
M

Y  Y
, G, T 
 P

 In the aggregate demand equation, we can
see that an increase in nominal money, M,
leads to an increase in the real money stock,
M/P, leading to an increase in output. The
aggregate demand curve shifts to the right.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
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Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
 The increase in the
nominal money stock
causes the aggregate
demand curve to shift to
the right.
 In the short run, output
and the price level
increase.
 The difference between
Y and Yn sets in motion
the adjustment of price
expectations.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamic Effects of
a Monetary Expansion
 In the medium run, the
AS curve shifts to AS’’
and the economy returns
to equilibrium at Yn.
 The increase in prices is
proportional to the
increase in the nominal
money stock.
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Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
The Dynamic Effects of
a Monetary Expansion
A monetary expansion leads to
an increase in output in the short
run, but has no effect on output
in the medium run.
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Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Going Behinds the Scenes
 The impact of a
monetary expansion on
the interest rate can be
illustrated by the IS-LM
model.
 The short-run effect of
the monetary expansion
is to shift the LM curve
down. The interest rate
is lower, output is higher.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Going Behinds the Scenes
 If the price level did not
increase, the shift in the
LM curve would be
larger—to LM’’.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Going Behinds the Scenes
 Over time, the price
level increases, the real
money stock decreases
and the LM curve
returns to where it was
before the increase in
nominal money.
 In the medium run, the
real money stock and
the interest rate remain
unchanged.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Going Behinds the Scenes
The Dynamic Effects of a
Monetary Expansion on Output
and the Interest Rate
The increase in nominal money
initially shifts the LM curve
down, decreasing the interest
rate and increasing output. Over
time, the price level increases,
shifting the LM curve back up
until output is back at the natural
level of output.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
The Neutrality of Money
 Over time, the price level increases, and the
effects of a monetary expansion on output and
on the interest rate disappear.
 The neutrality of money refers to the fact that
an increase in the nominal money stock has
no effect on output or the interest rate in the
medium run. The increase in the nominal
money stock is completely absorbed by an
increase in the price level.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
7-5
A Decrease in
the Budget Deficit
The Dynamic Effects
of a Decrease in the
Budget Deficit
A decrease in the
budget deficit leads
initially to a decrease
in output. Over time,
output returns to the
natural level of output.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deficit Reduction, Output,
and the Interest Rate
 Since the price level
declines in response to
the decrease in output,
the real money stock
increases. This causes a
shift of the LM curve to
LM’.
 Both output and the
interest rate are lower
than before the fiscal
contraction.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deficit Reduction, Output,
and the Interest Rate
 The LM curve continues
to shift down until output
is back to to the natural
level of output.
 The interest rate is lower
than it was before deficit
reduction.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deficit Reduction, Output,
and the Interest Rate
The Dynamic Effects of a
Decrease in the Budget Deficit
on Output and the Interest Rate
Deficit reduction leads in the
short run to a decrease in
output and to a decrease in the
interest rate. In the medium
run, output returns to its natural
level, while the interest rate
declines further.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Deficit Reduction, Output,
and the Interest Rate
 The composition of output is different than it was before
deficit reduction.
IS relation: Yn  C(Yn  T )  I (Yn , i )  G
 Income and taxes remain unchanged, thus, consumption is the
same as before.
 Government spending is lower than before; therefore,
investment must be higher than before deficit reduction—
higher by an amount exactly equal to the decrease in G.
 In the medium run, budget deficit reduction leads to a
decrease in the interest rate and an increase in
investment.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
7-6
Changes in the Price of Oil
The Price of Crude
Petroleum, 1960-2001
There was two sharp
increases in the
relative price of oil in
the 1970s, followed by
a decrease in the
1980s and the 1990s.
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Olivier Blanchard
Effects on the Natural
Rate of Unemployment
The Effects of an
Increase in the Price
of Oil on the Natural
Rate of
Unemployment
The higher price of oil
causes an increase in
the markup and a
downward shift of the
price-setting line.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
Y 

P  P (1   ) F  1  , z

L 
e
 An increase in the markup, , caused by an
increase in the price of oil, results in an
increase in the price level, at any level of
output, Y. The aggregate supply curve shifts
up.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
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Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
 After the increase in the
price of oil, the new AS
curve goes through point
B, where output equals
the new lower natural
level of output, Y’n, and
the price level equals Pe.
 The economy moves
along the AD curve, from
A to A’. Output
decreases from Yn to Y’.
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Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
 Over time, the economy
moves along the AD
curve, from A’ to A”.
 At point A”, the economy
has reached the new
lower natural level of
output, Y’n, and the price
level is higher than
before the oil shock.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
The Dynamic Effects of an
Increase in the Price of Oil
An increase in the price of oil
leads, in the short run, to a
decrease in output and an
increase in the price level. Over
time, output decreases further
and the price level increases
further.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
The Dynamics of Adjustment
Table 7-1
The Effects of the Increase in the Price of Oil,
1973-1975
1973
1974
1975
10.4
51.8
15.1
Rate of change of GDP deflator (%)
5.6
9.0
9.4
Rate of GDP growth (%)
5.8
0.6
 0.4
Unemployment rate (%)
4.9
5.6
8.5
Rate of change of petroleum price (%)
 The combination of negative growth and high inflation,
or stagnation accompanied by inflation, is called
stagflation.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Conclusions
7-6
The Short Run Versus the Medium Run
Table 7-2 Short-Run Effects and Medium-Run Effects of a Monetary
Expansion, a Budget Deficit Reduction, and an Increase in
the Price of Oil on Output, the Interest Rate, and the Price
Level
Short Run
Output
Level
Monetary
expansion
increase
Medium Run
Interest
Rate
Price
Level
Output
Level
Interest
Rate
Price
Level
decrease
increase
(small)
no change
no change
increase
no change
decrease
decrease
decrease
increase
increase
Deficit
reduction
decrease
decrease
decrease
(small)
Increase
in oil price
decrease
increase
increase
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Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Shocks and Propagation Mechanisms
 Output fluctuations (sometimes called
business cycles) are movements in output
around its trend.
 The economy is constantly hit by shocks to
aggregate supply, or to aggregate demand, or
to both.
 Each shock has dynamic effects on output and
its components. These dynamic effects are
called the propagation mechanism of the
shock.
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard
Key Terms




aggregate supply relation,
aggregate demand relation,
neutrality of money,
stagflation,
© 2003 Prentice Hall Business Publishing




output fluctuations,
business cycles,
shocks,
propagation mechanism,
Macroeconomics, 3/e
Olivier Blanchard