Transcript PowerPoint

FRBSF University Symposium
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Michael Choi
Christina Collada
Karl Garbacik
Lance Lloyd
Robert Sinclair
Andrew Speer
12th District Unemployment Rates (%)
Arizona 4.7%
Hawaii 3.0%
California 4.8%
Alaska 7.0 %
Oregon 5.6%
Washington 5.3%
Idaho 3.6%
Nevada 4.5%
Utah 3.4%
Pass-through effects of higher energy prices have caused upward
pressure on core inflation, but falling energy prices are likely to
lessen and exert downward leverage on core inflation
The Cooling Housing Market
Overall housing sales are declining but California was hit hardest by the
slowdown
Oil prices have steadily fallen from the mid 2006 peak
FRBSF University Symposium
Growth
The initial estimate of real GDP growth during the third
quarter was 1.6 % which is about half the average pace
during the last two years.
The economy seems likely to grow at a 2.5% to 2.75 %
pace in each of the next two quarters.
This forecast balances the effects of a cooling housing
market with solid growth performance in the remaining
95 % of the economy outside residential construction
Policy Recommendation
1. Economic growth slowed, but expansion will
continue at a moderate pace.
2. The housing market cooled off, especially in
California easing inflation pressures.
3. Oil prices also declined adding relief to
inflation pressures.
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
recommends to keep the federal funds rate steady
at 5.25%